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High gas prices: The real killer for Bush in 2004

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BeyondGeography Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 05:10 PM
Original message
High gas prices: The real killer for Bush in 2004
Like everyone else, I'm thrilled with *'s free-fall in the polls. But the cynic in me says it has more about the American people's wounded self-interest than in any well-thought out reflection on the Iraq war.

People are quite simply getting pounded at the pump, and it's pissing them off. At $2 per gallon, their thirsty guzzlers are starting to exact a terrible toll on wallets everywhere. I also think one of the unmentionable subtexts of the war was that we would control the Iraqi oil fields and this would be a good thing for our economy. Well, we've seen how that's worked out. We know for a fact that CheneyCo wildly miscalculated on the ability to fund the occupation with Iraqi oil exports. The whole region is in flames, oil supplies are going to be tight for the foreseeable future, and Ma and Pa Kettle will continue to get hammered every time they say "fill'er up."

So, maybe it comes down to this for a lot of people out there: Yeah, Bush fucked up in Iraq, but what good is a Texan President if he can't figure out how to keep gas prices under control?

The attached article predicts more of the same on gas prices for months to come. This could doom Bush more than anything.

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/05/16/business/16OIL.html?e...
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7th_Sephiroth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 05:11 PM
Response to Original message
1. nah
saudi's said they'd drop pirces for bush before the elections
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soothsayer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 05:18 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. yeah, the sheeple have a short-term memory. In the meantime, * buds
get RICH. And even tho the Saudi's came out and TOLD us this was a scam, who will remember?
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Hippo_Tron Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 05:20 PM
Response to Reply #1
5. I sure hope Michael Moore's movie comes out before the election...
That'll explain the low gas prices quite well.
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BeyondGeography Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 05:35 PM
Response to Reply #1
6. Read the article; the Saudi card won't cut it this time
"What little spare capacity there is is almost entirely in Saudi Arabia, which is willing to pump more but the extra oil it could produce quickly is too heavy in sulfur for the main consuming nations."

Then there's the China factor:

"Even so, the world's appetite for oil is growing at its fastest rate in 16 years, according to the International Energy Agency, which tracks oil markets and stockpiles for industrialized countries. It forecast that the world would consume two million more barrels a day this year than in 2003, or 80.6 million barrels a day in all. China's great economic growth is behind much of that increase, and few analysts foresaw that either China's boom or America's recovery would be quite so robust, said Lawrence J. Goldstein, president of the Petroleum Industry Research Foundation in New York.

That roaring demand has eaten deeply into oil supplies. Despite lower official quotas, nearly all the members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries are producing as much oil as possible to cash in on the high prices, and most major non-OPEC producers are doing the same. Russia, which is not an OPEC member, is something of an exception, but it is constrained by how much oil it can export through its pipelines and railways, all of them running at or near their limits. Venezuela, an OPEC member, is theoretically able to produce more oil, but its state oil company was crippled last year by a strike and an unsuccessful attempt to oust the country's president, and it has not recovered fully."

Prince Bandar and the Hocus Pocus crew are in over their heads this time.
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wtmusic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 05:14 PM
Response to Original message
2. Another phony buildup to the Great Gas Price Decline
Yup, looks like they're only going to get higher, here it is October...and...well looky there, gasoline is going down...now **ONLY** $1.90 a gallon! Guess Dubya does know how to show the A-rabs a thing or two! Bush/Cheney '04!!!
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Lefty Pragmatist Donating Member (430 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 06:40 PM
Response to Reply #2
7. They better start now...
...if they're going to cook prices for W and make an impact. It takes months for a decrease to work through the system (an increase can happen overnight, as profiteers throughout history have gleefully noted).

High fuel costs are also hurting business and industry, and putting a damper on the recovery. Americans will forgive Bush for $2.00 gas if there's a legitimate jobful recovery, so while gas is a killer, it's the indirect effects, already being felt, that will be the murder weapon.
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earthside Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 05:19 PM
Response to Original message
4. Too Late for Bush
Despite anything the Saudis may do before November, it is probably too late for Bush. As the graph shows, following a big spike in oil prices, a recession follows (the shaded bars). Of course, there is the real possibility that the Saudis have reached the peak of their production. They may not have any more to pump in a world of fast increasing demand.
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Padraig18 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 06:44 PM
Response to Original message
8. And milk and meat
"It's the economy, stupid!" is still as valid today as it was in 1992. People WILL vote their pocketbooks in November, just like they always have and always will. Take it to the bank.
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dogman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 07:09 PM
Response to Original message
9. Those are my thoughts as well.
They'd have to drop a lot soon for people to ignore them. Predictions of interest rate hikes will add to the inflationary fears and spell pressure on the pocketbook. These are things that make Americans pay attention. They are more concerned with the loss of dead presidents out of the wallet than dead soldiers out of Iraq.
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sabbat hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 10:00 PM
Response to Original message
10. gas prices
always seem to go up the day after OPEC announces a increase in price or decrease in production, despite the fact that the gas here has been here for months.

however gas prices take months to drop once an production increase or price drop is announced by OPEC. for anything to effect the prices at the pump to help shrub, OPEC would have to announce it around june 1. anything after that and the price at the pump will remain high until the election

peace
david
:hippie:
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ramapo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 10:19 PM
Response to Original message
11. Not as bad as it seems...yet
Yes prices have taken a big jump, about 30% perhaps give or take.

But gas is still significantly less after adjusting for inflation than it was during the '70s and '80s. I've read that prices can go to the $50-60/bbl range to get back to parity with those times (currently just over $40/bbl).

The price shocks of the '70s were more significant with gas more than doubling in a very short time with an eventual move up of ~250%-300% from $0.35-$0.40/gallon to $1.00+/gallon.

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radfringe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-16-04 05:26 AM
Response to Original message
12. my concern is what are the prices going to be AFTER November
it looks like a 'drop' in prices will be just in time for november elections -- i.e. the saudis will do what they can to 'help' bush

prediction: bush* inc. will tout a drop in prices as a result of the "jawboning" from the ass

meanwhile - what about AFTER november? I know we've just turned the corner on winter -- however what will happen to home heating fuel prices?

My partner and I had a difficult enough time this past winter, we supplemented heating the house by closing off rooms we don't use, keeping the thermostat down and firing up the wood stove

a co-worker had told me of her friend that had to chose between heating her home, buying her prescription meds and eating...

A "short term" just-in-time-to-reselect-bush price break is just that - short term -- regardless of who ends up in the white house -- prices will go up
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