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Could NC and Georgia go Blue? lots of disgruntled military? n/t

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Finbar Donating Member (203 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 05:02 PM
Original message
Could NC and Georgia go Blue? lots of disgruntled military? n/t
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mobuto Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 05:07 PM
Response to Original message
1. Both could
Edited on Sat May-15-04 05:09 PM by mobuto
Although its somewhat unlikely at this point. If either do go for Kerry, Kerry will win by a big enough margin that they don't matter. Kerry's going to try real hard for West Virginia and Arkansas. If he starts to do real well there, I imagine he might expand efforts in Georgia, Tennesee, North Carolina and Kentucky.
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taxidriver Donating Member (663 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 05:10 PM
Response to Original message
2. if they do, it won't be because of disgruntled military
the military overwhelmingly supports bush. The fact that they are dying in Iraq and Afhganistan doesn't waver them as much as people might think.
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opihimoimoi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 05:14 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. Might be more truth to it than mentioned. Cannot count on disgruntled
but any small shift towards Dems side can make a diff/harder for Bush guys.

Added to a shift with women who are upset over the way this war is going... and it may make a larger diff. with enough diffs, the Dems have good odds to pull it off.
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ayeshahaqqiqa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 05:33 PM
Response to Reply #2
7. Do you think the torture scandal
could effect the military vote? I've heard from a lot of military and ex-military who are mad about what happened at Abu Ghraib and who fear it is going to stop with the courts martial of the non-coms. They feel that the command is actually doing things to make the military in Iraq more vulnerable.
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leyton Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 06:41 PM
Response to Reply #7
9. There's just not as much backlash as you'd think.
Granted, I live in Charlotte, which doesn't have a high military population. But from what I can tell, there's just not as much anger towards Bush from military families as you might think. I think a lot of Carolinians supported the war from the start and though the losses hurt, many here think it a necessary sacrifice.
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surfermaw Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 08:33 PM
Response to Reply #9
13. N.C. ususally supports defending the Nation..but
Some republicans are angry with Bush, over unemployment,cost of gas and lost jobs replaced with lower paying jobs. I think if Edward's is on the ticket the state will go democrat..it could be that many republicans will stay home and just not vote, then many of the younger adults ,college kids, white collar & blue collar may just vote Democratic.. I do know my college kids are giving him hell,calling gas, Bush gas.
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bluestateguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 05:14 PM
Response to Original message
3. Doubtful
Georgia is going to be hard because that's the one place where the Zell Miller endorsement casts kind of a pall over the Kerry candidacy.

North Carolina? To many problems for Kerry there. Yes, the military thing could move the numbers a bit, but not enough in my view. Within military communities, the voters I see switching to Kerry are likely to be reservists and national guardsmen, who are not entirely professional soldiers. Hence, they are not as much a part of the military culture as the professional soldiers, who I still see backing Bush. I do see a possible advantage for Kerry not so much with the soldiers and Marines, but with their immediate inner circles: their parents, their wives and girlfriends. Basically in North Carolina it comes down to gays, guns, God and in North Carolina, tobacco. In the mid-90's the Democrats really screwed things up for themselves in the tobacco states with all their anti-smoking crap. Clinton came within 20,000 votes of winning NC in 1992, but all that anti-tobacco nonsense actually caused him to lose NC by a bigger margin in 1996. Gore lost in by 12 points. Also, NC has a whole lot of media markets, making it a very expensive state to run in. If it was a smaller state, I would say give it a try, but I say stick a fork in it. Give Virgina a try instead. Gore lost it by only 8% in 2000 and he never campaigned there.
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Finbar Donating Member (203 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 05:16 PM
Response to Reply #3
5. maybe I am just paying more attention this year, but LOTS of my friends
(I'm in NC) that have never voted, are doing so this year against bush. I take a stack of Voter registration cards and stamps with me everyday to work
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Submariner Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 05:32 PM
Response to Original message
6. Kerry will pickup Veterans
which are a huge segment. I'm not sure about active duty leanings.
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R3dD0g Donating Member (625 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 05:42 PM
Response to Original message
8. God, guns & gays will trump any Military misgivings.
Those people just don't care about anything else.

Besides, they worship a false god.
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Padraig18 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 06:44 PM
Response to Original message
10. If they do, it'll be a Kerry landslide.
NC could 'go blue' with Edwards as VP, IMO.
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GreenInNC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 08:03 PM
Response to Original message
11. Lots of jobs lost here
Not only blue collar but white collar also. NAFTA and free trade have destroyed our textiles and outsourcing is getting our technology jobs. My wife's programming job is going to India.
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surfermaw Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 08:37 PM
Response to Reply #11
14. Watch my words, White Collars will be the nail in Bush's coffin.
That will finish off the Bush administration.You are right on.
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surfermaw Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 08:07 PM
Response to Original message
12. Rep. may stay home they want vote Rep.
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dolstein Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-16-04 12:09 AM
Response to Original message
15. No, not with Kerry at the top of the ticket
Someone like Edwards might have given us a shot, particularly with Bush's popularity ratings in the toilet. But selecting Kerry pretty much guarantees that these states will remain red.
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Radical Activist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-16-04 01:07 AM
Response to Original message
16. GA would be ccompetetive if...
Kerry picked John Lewis for VP. Maybe I should stop harping about Lewis but I think people seriously underestimate the impact he would have on the race nationally and in the south by increasing turnout among black voters. Arkansas would go Democratic, Republicans would have to fight for Georgia, and it would help in northern swing states too like Michigan.
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ngGale Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-16-04 03:02 AM
Response to Reply #16
17. With Edwards on the ticket the RED may have more...
than a few problems in these states. We have a lot of ticked off military because of the prison scandle.
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mitchum Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-16-04 10:58 AM
Response to Reply #16
22. I'm right there with you concerning John Lewis
Don't stop harping. I have also been advocating this as a dynamite ticket.
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JackDragna Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-16-04 03:51 AM
Response to Original message
18. If we win either Georgia or North Carolina..
..I'll eat an aircraft carrier.
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ACK Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-16-04 08:45 AM
Response to Reply #18
19. Won't happen this time but ...
Clinton carried GA the first time around.

Get a good populist Dem with a serious charisma and you can see Ga for a Dem again nationally.

_
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chimpymustgo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-16-04 09:21 AM
Response to Reply #19
20. Kerry/Edwards turns a lot of red states blue.
NC, GA, border southern states, midwest.

Edwards is the charismatic populist you're looking for.

Kerry/Edwards '04. And beyond...
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Finbar Donating Member (203 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-16-04 11:08 AM
Response to Reply #18
23. Get your keychup ready, cause I'm feelin' my fellow NCers goin' BLUE!
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elperromagico Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-16-04 09:29 AM
Response to Original message
21. I don't see Kerry winning GA unless he beats Bush in a landslide,
Edited on Sun May-16-04 09:30 AM by elperromagico
which is of course possible...

Clinton won Georgia in 1992 in large part because Perot and Bush split the Republican vote. In fact, Gore's percentage there in 2000 was less than a point from Clinton's in 1992.

Democratic presidential candidates in Georgia have gotten anywhere from 39%-46% of the vote there since '84. The state last went for the Dem in 1980, for rather obvious reasons.
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