Could NC and Georgia go Blue? lots of disgruntled military? n/t

[Finbar]

[mobuto]

1. Both could

Although its somewhat unlikely at this point. If either do go for Kerry, Kerry will win by a big enough margin that they don't matter. Kerry's going to try real hard for West Virginia and Arkansas. If he starts to do real well there, I imagine he might expand efforts in Georgia, Tennesee, North Carolina and Kentucky.

[taxidriver]

2. if they do, it won't be because of disgruntled military

the military overwhelmingly supports bush. The fact that they are dying in Iraq and Afhganistan doesn't waver them as much as people might think.

[opihimoimoi]

4. Might be more truth to it than mentioned. Cannot count on disgruntled

but any small shift towards Dems side can make a diff/harder for Bush guys.

Added to a shift with women who are upset over the way this war is going... and it may make a larger diff. with enough diffs, the Dems have good odds to pull it off.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

7. Do you think the torture scandal

could effect the military vote? I've heard from a lot of military and ex-military who are mad about what happened at Abu Ghraib and who fear it is going to stop with the courts martial of the non-coms. They feel that the command is actually doing things to make the military in Iraq more vulnerable.

[leyton]

9. There's just not as much backlash as you'd think.

Granted, I live in Charlotte, which doesn't have a high military population. But from what I can tell, there's just not as much anger towards Bush from military families as you might think. I think a lot of Carolinians supported the war from the start and though the losses hurt, many here think it a necessary sacrifice.

[surfermaw]

13. N.C. ususally supports defending the Nation..but

Some republicans are angry with Bush, over unemployment,cost of gas and lost jobs replaced with lower paying jobs. I think if Edward's is on the ticket the state will go democrat..it could be that many republicans will stay home and just not vote, then many of the younger adults ,college kids, white collar & blue collar may just vote Democratic.. I do know my college kids are giving him hell,calling gas, Bush gas.

[bluestateguy]

3. Doubtful

Georgia is going to be hard because that's the one place where the Zell Miller endorsement casts kind of a pall over the Kerry candidacy.

North Carolina? To many problems for Kerry there. Yes, the military thing could move the numbers a bit, but not enough in my view. Within military communities, the voters I see switching to Kerry are likely to be reservists and national guardsmen, who are not entirely professional soldiers. Hence, they are not as much a part of the military culture as the professional soldiers, who I still see backing Bush. I do see a possible advantage for Kerry not so much with the soldiers and Marines, but with their immediate inner circles: their parents, their wives and girlfriends. Basically in North Carolina it comes down to gays, guns, God and in North Carolina, tobacco. In the mid-90's the Democrats really screwed things up for themselves in the tobacco states with all their anti-smoking crap. Clinton came within 20,000 votes of winning NC in 1992, but all that anti-tobacco nonsense actually caused him to lose NC by a bigger margin in 1996. Gore lost in by 12 points. Also, NC has a whole lot of media markets, making it a very expensive state to run in. If it was a smaller state, I would say give it a try, but I say stick a fork in it. Give Virgina a try instead. Gore lost it by only 8% in 2000 and he never campaigned there.

[Finbar]

5. maybe I am just paying more attention this year, but LOTS of my friends

(I'm in NC) that have never voted, are doing so this year against bush. I take a stack of Voter registration cards and stamps with me everyday to work

[Submariner]

6. Kerry will pickup Veterans

which are a huge segment. I'm not sure about active duty leanings.

[R3dD0g]

8. God, guns & gays will trump any Military misgivings.

Those people just don't care about anything else.

Besides, they worship a false god.

[Padraig18]

10. If they do, it'll be a Kerry landslide.

NC could 'go blue' with Edwards as VP, IMO.

[GreenInNC]

11. Lots of jobs lost here

Not only blue collar but white collar also. NAFTA and free trade have destroyed our textiles and outsourcing is getting our technology jobs. My wife's programming job is going to India.

[surfermaw]

14. Watch my words, White Collars will be the nail in Bush's coffin.

That will finish off the Bush administration.You are right on.

[surfermaw]

12. Rep. may stay home they want vote Rep.

[dolstein]

15. No, not with Kerry at the top of the ticket

Someone like Edwards might have given us a shot, particularly with Bush's popularity ratings in the toilet. But selecting Kerry pretty much guarantees that these states will remain red.

[Radical Activist]

16. GA would be ccompetetive if...

Kerry picked John Lewis for VP. Maybe I should stop harping about Lewis but I think people seriously underestimate the impact he would have on the race nationally and in the south by increasing turnout among black voters. Arkansas would go Democratic, Republicans would have to fight for Georgia, and it would help in northern swing states too like Michigan.

[ngGale]

17. With Edwards on the ticket the RED may have more...

than a few problems in these states. We have a lot of ticked off military because of the prison scandle.

[mitchum]

22. I'm right there with you concerning John Lewis

Don't stop harping. I have also been advocating this as a dynamite ticket.

[JackDragna]

18. If we win either Georgia or North Carolina..

..I'll eat an aircraft carrier.

[ACK]

19. Won't happen this time but ...

Clinton carried GA the first time around.

Get a good populist Dem with a serious charisma and you can see Ga for a Dem again nationally.

_

[chimpymustgo]

20. Kerry/Edwards turns a lot of red states blue.

NC, GA, border southern states, midwest.

Edwards is the charismatic populist you're looking for.

Kerry/Edwards '04. And beyond...

[Finbar]

23. Get your keychup ready, cause I'm feelin' my fellow NCers goin' BLUE!

[elperromagico]

21. I don't see Kerry winning GA unless he beats Bush in a landslide,

which is of course possible...

Clinton won Georgia in 1992 in large part because Perot and Bush split the Republican vote. In fact, Gore's percentage there in 2000 was less than a point from Clinton's in 1992.

Democratic presidential candidates in Georgia have gotten anywhere from 39%-46% of the vote there since '84. The state last went for the Dem in 1980, for rather obvious reasons.