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Doosh Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 10:25 AM
Original message
Kerry’s legendary lead
Kerry’s legendary lead

“So Mark, how well is John Kerry doing?”

“Better than any challenger in modern times has ever been doing at this point in this race!”

“You wouldn’t know that from the press spin.”

“Like my mother always said (quoting Santayana), those who do not remember the past are doomed to relive it.”

How does one define “doing well” in the context of polling? As I have written before, polling numbers have no inherent meaning. They only derive meaning from comparisons across time or space.

In the latest Gallup poll, John Kerry leads George Bush by five points among registered voters when Nader is included, and by 6 when he is not. How do we know just how strong a showing that is for Kerry?

Looking at the history of presidential races is one approach. No challenger has ever done as well against an elected incumbent at this point in the cycle. Every incumbent who won re-election had a double-digit lead over his challenger at this stage. Lyndon Johnson led Barry Goldwater by 59 points in the spring of ’64. Bill Clinton led Bob Dole by 14 points, Ronald Reagan led Walter Mondale by 17 and Richard Nixon was ahead of George McGovern by 11.

http://www.hillnews.com/mellman/051204.aspx

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Toronto Ron Donating Member (429 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 10:28 AM
Response to Original message
1. Let's not get too confident though
Like others have posted here, we have never before had BBV and near-complete control of the mass media by Republican interests.
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billybob537 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 10:30 AM
Response to Original message
2. Say good bye whistle ass.
Hooray :toast: :bounce: :hi: :yourock:
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Kolesar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 10:41 AM
Original message
My mood has really improved in the last few weeks
Too bad it was on account of the disaster in Fallujah and the revelation of our troops torturing prisoners.
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ACK Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 10:41 AM
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3. Thanks -- this is the problem people
The country is divided.

You hear this all the time.

There was a great article by a former Repuke turned Dem about how the Republicans are able to manipulate the press and how they learned over years of time. You have to take a hard look from Nixon on about how they slowly worked and were able to use media consolidation to solidify things. They turned a very basic message and found bullshit populist hooks to feed into the message. While they are the party of the rich they bribe the electorate with tax cuts and while they feed big business they make the business policies looks from afar like they will help small businesses. It is all utter bullshit like their evil Southern strategy to use race to divide the population as effectively as the Bourbon Dems back in the day. This is what gave us the horror of the Repuke corporate revolutionary takeover of all three branches of the government.

Considering the Orwellian times we live in I am actually happy that a man who is considered a liberal (I know he is not a hardcore liberal like Kuicinch so don't go there) can maintain a small lead against a Repuke president during a time of war before the convention even with the rising tide of scandal. You have to understand not much will come out of any of these scandals btw because they control the legislature and the courts so don't hold you breath for accountability. After all most Americans have to be reminded that someone in the administration outed a CIA official and committed treason for goodness sakes.

We do need to keep working to move our party from the center to center-left. Kerry is absolutely playing politics. His statements during the primary were more center-left and I think that is where he should have stayed. As long as you look conservative on guns, death penalty (why have they not attacked him on this yet makes me nervous), fiscal responsibility and he has to look pro-accountability for corporations but not anti-corporate which is a touch line to walk. Other than that the man can go as liberal as he wants on almost every other issue.

The DLC took the wrong lessons from the success of Bill Clinton.

They think he won from the center. He won despite every thought he was a fence-sitting poll-watching mush man on the issues. He won because he was so charasmatic. Someone like Kerry who is NOT as charasmatic to the middle has to define himself clearly and energize the base while not ticking off the middle.

At least, that is my opinion.

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Kolesar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 10:45 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. good historical account and your Clinton account was insightful
Edited on Sat May-15-04 10:45 AM by SpikeTrees
As for moving the party left-of-center, well that is what I want to happen. I think Kerry is stuck talking Lieber-esqe on many issues because he knows the "stenographers of the White House" in the media are going to hammer him if he does not.
edit:typo
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ACK Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 10:58 AM
Response to Reply #4
6. You are right he is not listening too much to the DLC but media hints
Edited on Sat May-15-04 10:59 AM by ACK
His positions on healthcare, NAFTA and the FTAA as well as other issues are already to the left of the DLC.

Listen to the media. They give candidates hints all the time. I am not speaking of the talking heads either. I am talking about anchor people and the reporters who write the stories.

Early on in the bloodbath of April, they said that Kerry had to walk a fine line to make sure he does not sound like he is taking advantage of a tragedy.

The odd part is that the meat of his policies have not changed much but the tone and the qualifiers in his speeches and his statements.

Look at his website, it is not like he flipped on healthcare or the environment or on his pro-choice position.

But at the same time, his speeches are becoming more middle of road.

This was played out in a very good thread of the accountability statement in regards to teachers.

Then the worm turned and they gave Kerry permission to attack Bush on Iraq by giving the far left's "Where is Kerry?" stuff play.

He has to tell both the DLC and the media to fuck off and speak from the heart. I know that there are four or so real hardcore Anti-Kerry folks that will say he has no heart. That is garbage. Listen to his speech on women's rights on his acceptance of the endorsement of the NARAL. OMG, I sat there listening and thought I could hear the man's heart bleed straight through those words and out into his voice and over the crowd.

_

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Paradise Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 10:57 AM
Response to Original message
5. hi, Doosh,
2 errors in your post, inadvertent no doubt, namely:

"election", and "re-election". :hi:
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Beetwasher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 11:46 AM
Response to Original message
7. This Should Be a Big Story
Politically speaking it is a big story and yet you don't get that from the media. Liberal media my ass.
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