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I've been playing with the EC map and this comes close....

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Nimble_Idea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 06:48 AM
Original message
I've been playing with the EC map and this comes close....
http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html

With this projection from a puke, he is close to my prediction since Al Gore was running back in 2002.

I have Arkansas in the Dem corner, and that's my total victory.

Yet, I bet we may pick up a few more, But I won't bet on it.

I have a Kerry/Clark ticket at 338
and the Shrub/Bunker ticket at 200

There are a few toss-ups, Like Georgia, Colorado, and Arizona.

But that is my projection , 338 to 200. What is yours?
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RafterMan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 07:01 AM
Response to Original message
1. Since I last saw this map
We've flipped Nevada and Missouri, and Ohio and Florida have turned solid. Very satisfying.

My old prediction was just to flip Florida, so that's long gone.

I think Arizona, Colorado and Arkansas all have about the same threshhold at which they will turn. Much beyond that and it becomes a total rout.
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NMDemDist2 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-16-04 03:15 AM
Response to Reply #1
8. arizona is totally in play people
as an activist on the ground here i can tell you that.

I'll know more when I work the polls at the municiple elections Tuesday
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ayeshahaqqiqa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 07:16 AM
Response to Original message
2. Arkansas will go blue
I live and work in the most conservative area of the state, and I have yet to hear anyone say anything nice about Shrub. I have heard a lot of Republicans say there's no way in h*ll they are going to vote for him this year.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 08:56 AM
Response to Original message
3. This scenario is likely: Kerry 347 EV
Edited on Sat May-15-04 09:03 AM by TruthIsAll
Kerry Electoral Votes

Alabama
Alaska
Arizona 10
Arkansas 6
California 54
Colorado
Connecticut 7
Delaware 3
Wash DC 3
Florida 27
Georgia
Hawaii 4
Idaho
Illinois 21
Indiana
Iowa 7
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine 4
Maryland 10
Mass 12
Michigan 17
Minnesota 10
Mississippi
Missouri 11
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada 5
New Hampshire 4
New Jersey 15
New Mexico 5
New York 31
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio 20
Oklahoma
Oregon 7
Pennsylvania 21
Rhode Island 4
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont 3
Virginia
Washington 11
West Virginia 5
Wisconsin 10
Wyoming

TOTAL Kerry 347
Bush 191

CO, TN, NC, LA are possible for Kerry

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Ridley Park 704 Donating Member (114 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-16-04 01:36 AM
Response to Reply #3
7. 347? wow, Kerry still wins even if he loses FL and CA.
Some dopes are saying CA will be real close, but with these numbers, he can even win without it.

Im getting more confident by the week. By August this shit should look REAL good.
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dusty64 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 09:30 AM
Response to Original message
4. Wow, thats
a large turnaround of the map since the last time I looked at it. Lets hope this trend continues, diebold be damned.
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MAlibdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 09:35 AM
Response to Original message
5. The best thing is that this is mantained and projected by a GOPer
It is nice that he is honest and can do projections honestly, regardless of who he wants to win.
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CreekDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-04 12:56 PM
Response to Reply #5
6. Arizona will go Blue/Colorado will stay Red
Clinton won Arizona in 1996 and it's been trending blue as the Californians moved in and the state grows and diversifies. I think even Barry Goldwater was voting for some Democrats in his latter days.

Colorado, on the other hand, seems to have an influx of evangelical Christians, while not the majority, they've given an important margin to Republicans. But it will be closer for Bush this time around there as it will be in every Red state.

With that said, if Bush lost the popular vote in 2000 and statewide polls show that his red state strength is weaker, then how can he pull this election out?
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DaveSZ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-16-04 04:23 AM
Response to Reply #6
9. Yep
With Clark we could sew up Arkansas, and steal more of the military vote from the pubs.

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elperromagico Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-16-04 08:09 AM
Response to Reply #9
11. Now now. Let's not say "steal."
The Republicans steal votes. We will win them. :)
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elperromagico Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-16-04 08:07 AM
Response to Original message
10. I don't trust this guy when he predicts a Bush victory,
and I'm not going to start trusting him now. But I hope he's right this once. ;)
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