Why McCain can't win (Or, whomever we nominate is still going to win)

[Drachasor]

McCain has a number of rather large problems coming into the GE, which will quickly become apparent once our nomination is over.

1. He has repeatedly said he doesn't really understand the economy. That's a huge issue in this election.

2. He is trying to conflate Iran and Al'Qaeda, and after Bush and Iraq, the American people won't have much stomach for trying to make two enemies appear to be the same.

3. He keeps insisting we are going to be in Iraq for a long, long time. What constitutes "victory" to him is fairly vague and won't be satisfactory after analysis, especially given the cost.

4. He talks of other wars to come beyond Iraq.

5. He can't court the independents AND the people who really, really like Bush (neo-cons/conservative base) at the same time. There's too large a disconnect between the two. Attempting to do so will undermine his Straight Talk reputation, and he won't be able to not talk about this issues once he is actually up against one of our nominees.


That said, I still think that the extensive infighting in the Democratic party will hurt us. Winning by a narrower margin will give the next President less of a mandate to accomplish the goals they have. It will also likely negatively impact our control of the Congress. I just don't think it is likely that McCain will ever look like a better choice once a campaign against him actually begins (you just can't really reconcile the ~33% who approve of Bush with the 66% who dislike him, and McCain is increasingly making himself incapable of distancing himself from Bush).

[opihimoimoi]

1. Exactly...K&R...the Pubs have sullied themselves with FAILUREs

and revealed the difference between the 2 Parties....Good Philosophy(Altruism)...and Bad Philosophy...Greed and Power(for selfishness)

The Pubs have fucked themselves...they do not have TRUTH on their side...only nit picking on small moot shit...

[Lint Head]

2. McCain is a walking testimony to self political destruction.

There is enough video of him fucking up to make a movie. There is enough printed stories, including the Keating 5 scandal, to absolutely destroy him politically. I hope the Democratic party is not so cowardly as not to use any of it. :dem:

[OlderButWiser]

3. Who else will the neo-cons vote for?

Certainly not a woman or a black man. I'm not sure which one freaks them out more. Sure we can hope they stay home on election day, but will they?
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5. He can't court the independents AND the people who really, really like Bush (neo-cons/conservative base) at the same time. There's too large a disconnect between the two. Attempting to do so will undermine his Straight Talk reputation, and he won't be able to not talk about this issues once he is actually up against one of our nominees.

[Drachasor]

6. It's a fact that more people in a base don't vote if they don't like their candidate

That's always been the case. Bush won largely by pandering to the religious right repeatedly, something McCain is incapable of doing to the same degree without ruining his reputation with independents.

Somtimes people do vote for the other guy, as well, but I believe the larger historical impact is not voting at all (when you take about core constituencies rather than more middle of the road types).

[NJSecularist]

4. Keep in mind that Obama will likely forgoe public financing this election.

Which puts McCain in a pretty big quagmire considering his lackluster fundraising efforts up to this point.

That is I think the biggest thing people are overlooking. How is McCain going to compete with our fundraising given the interest on our side, especially if we forgot public financing?

[bluestateguy]

5. Economy, economy, economy. Say it again...

We can't get stuck in the weeds talking about stupid controversies or even Iraq. Iraq is important, but it's not the ticket to victory. Everything should back to the economy.

[democratmejicano]

7. Bush has all those problems and he won in 2004

It's the media, stupid.

[Drachasor]

8. IIRC, his negatives were not nearly as bad as they are now

And we don't have a Kerry who won't defend himself running. Those are some of the biggest differences.

Well, the economy wasn't as bad either. The Iraq war lasting longing without progress makes it worse (which is part of why so many are so unhappy with Bush). And McCain can't as easily court the middle and the conservative base as Bush, since Bush already had the Religious Right on his said (McCain doesn't). Also, the divide between the middle and the right is much larger this year, which doesn't help that courting.