40% Pro-Bush, 40% Against, 20% Decide Very Late (Kerry's Doing Alright)

[DrFunkenstein]

There doesn't seem to be much point in having Kerry out there day after day grinding away at Bush. If anything, he should let Iraq chip away at Bush's ratings (these things do not appear on polls overnight) without "politicizing" it with direct attacks.

Beyond that, it is absolutely clear that Americans are turned off by long, dragged-out fights. For Kerry to hammer at Bush day-in and day-out is completely ridiculous. But what you get is a bunch of political junkies and campaign journalists that need a constant fix (as opposed to actually delving into policy details) and whining about how nothing is happening - which must, of course, mean that Kerry is imploding along with all our hopes, dreams, etc.

Kerry, if you haven't figured it out, has an impeccable sense of political timing. And now we know that he is an uncannily good fundraiser, as well.

This is the time for Kerry to sit back and think about what he needs to do to get it right. Running on the campaign treadmill at full tilt, throwing bombs at Bush that will be ultimately forgotten (but the negativity remembered) after a few news-cycles is, pardon my non-PC lingo, completely retarded.

Despite article after article suggesting Kerry is not at Bush's throat out of incompetence, Kerry is exactly where he should be. The country is extremely polarized. The liberals are in his pocket, the conservatives in Bush's. People at DU know the stakes, and so do the Freepers. The trajectory of the 21st century (not to mention the Supreme Court) may very well be decided by the outcome.

However, there is a huge chunk of Americans that just don't give a crap about politics, and think it is all a dirty game they'd rather touch as little as possible. These people will not remember what happened before September, if they even knew it in the first place. They remember things in vague emotional terms over long periods of time.

Make no mistake. Kerry is the top dog of the Democrats now, whether you like it or not. Every attack that is made upon Bush now is coordinated through him and his campaign. In this way, Kerry doesn't need to be in the trenches day after day. His job is to put together a summer strategy that will set the stage for the autumn when the real show begins. And Kerry, as we know, is a Seabiscuit politician that always finishes strong (and always amidst howls that he is imploding).

In short, chill out. The man's in charge. He's been planning this his whole life. It's not like he's gotten here and doesn't know what he wants to do. I know it goes against our liberal instincts of cynicism, but put some trust in him.

And don't forget: he's got Presidential hair. Don't underestimate it!

[ALago1]

1. I agree wholeheartedly

I trust this guy's political instincts and believe he's going to come out in full force after the convention.

[vi5]

2. I agree 100%......at this point no matter what he says...

He's going to get hammered for it without adequate time or opportunity to respond. There is so much other news out there. When there is a lull, hopefully he will announce a VP pick which (I pray) will energize people even more.

[MarianJack]

4. About That VP Pick, vi5,...

...Gen. Clark gave the Democratic response to moron's address last Saturday and was on Meet the Press on Sunday. Are you (or anybody else willing to opine) thinking that these were VP auditions?

[vi5]

5. God, I sure hope so...

I really do.

[Tina H]

3. yes, this campaign lull also . . .

provides voters to speak up and let Candidate Kerry know what they want from him so that he can fine tune his positions to reflect his constituency as well as possible.

[dsc]

6. There aren't more than 10% undecided

this is an unusual election in that regard. Bush and Kerry are both at around 45 not 40. Bush has us utterly polarized and has driven the undecideds way down.

[DrFunkenstein]

7. But I'd Suggest That 10% of "Decideds" Are Still In Play

Depending on the events leading up to the election, including but not exclusively the performances of the candidates. People still haven't seen the full Democratic ticket, nor have the conventions convened. Remember that Bush's convention is in liberal NYC (another "mission accomplished" PR fiasco?), and Kerry's convention is in his hometown, where he is likely to a rapturous welcome (not to mention a big Clinton boost).

There are so many fundamental factors that haven't played out, not to mention events abroad in a race dealing so centrally with foreign policy/security, that it is impossible to say that the lines have been drawn in the sand just yet.

[dsc]

11. Bush won't drop below 45% barring an outright loss in Iraq

and Kerry/Nader won't fall below 45% without blissful peace in Iraq accompanied by a robust economy.

[DrFunkenstein]

12. The Sad/Scary Part of Iraq (Like Vietnam) Is There No Obvious Losing

I'd feel alot better with someone who went through it personally to be at the helm. Not that flying for the Texas National Guard wasn't a useful experience. It certainly taught Bush to ignore the veterans in his administration for the exclusive advice of the surrounding chickenhawks.

[dsc]

18. which is why I think Bush will hold at around 45 as a floor

I am stunned at how badly the war is appearing to go as it is. I had figured he would be able to give the appearence of the war going well for considerably longer than he has. I am glad the appearence is matching the reality.

[felonious thunk]

8. Kerry is running an excellent campaign

He doesn't need to be out there hammering right now. Bush is faltering on his own, and Kerry is letting him. He's staying above the fray and making sure he doesn't peak too early.

Bush's approval ratings are more important at this point than the election numbers, and Kerry's people know it. They are playing this smart.

[Beetwasher]

9. Indeed. His Strategy is Deliberate and THOUGHTFUL

He's staying above the fray for now and running postive ads defining himself. To attack Bush viciously now would be stupid and open him to attacks of politicizing tragedy.

[Claire Beth]

10. I wish Nader would just go away!!!!

I'm concerned the Nader factor will cause Kerry major problems and possibly the election.

[no name no slogan]

13. Unfortunately, that won't work. Kerry taking principled stands will.

Like everyone has said, the fact that Kerry is not Bush gets him 45% of the vote.

If he truly wants to sway those undecided voters, he needs to STAND UP-- for ANYTHING.

Currently, he's letting Shrub define the issues-- it's like he's DELIBERATELY trying NOT to take a strong stand on ANY issue.

Is he for the Iraq war? Well, no, not really, but he won't take steps to end the war, like eliminating the US as an occupying force.

Is he for health care for everyone? Well, no, but he has a nifty plan that allows more people to buy insurance, which will cover 96% of the population.

Is he against so-called "free trade" treaties? Well, he's not too keen on FTAA or CAFTA, but thinks NAFTA and the WTO are basically okay.

Voters want to vote FOR somebody, not AGAINST someone else. ABB will get Kerry 45%. Standing FOR the issues that count to most Americans will get him another 10%.

[DrFunkenstein]

14. Nader Will INCREASE Democratic Turnout

Nothing will get lazy Democrats off their ass like the prospect of Nader f'ing things up again. I hope he stays straight to the end.

PS - If anyone actually votes for Nader, you are a horse's ass. Nothing personal, but it's true.



Nader, I love ya, I bought your book, but you are pee-ing all over your place in the history books.

[robbedvoter]

15. Disagree. 29% for W, 40% for Kerry - the rest need motivation

Kerry is doing fine, but there's room for much better.

[wadestock]

16. Hit it on the head....

Exactly right...

Kerry has worn me out several times...and I'm very intent on listening.

If he were to adopt some of the freshness of Clark...and especially the brilliant satirical stuff about how they must think they're connected to God, and how WE'RE the REAL party for helping people....we LIVE that reality....he'd be alot better off....

Clark was able to paint a very positive view of the democrat....a revival of a proud democrat....that Limbaugh has sought to destroy through the years.

People have to feel as if they are not AFRAID to vote democrat because they see all the other brain dead people at the coffee pot and other ditto heads acting as if they know what's going on.

[Zynx]

17. I think the swing voters total, at most 8%.

It used to be that about 20% were swing voters. Not anymore.