Congress' Magic Number

[ColbertWatcher]

Does anyone know how many republicans must be removed from Congress to make the next democratic president's job anything but impossible?

Which ones are up for re-election?

In the Senate?

In the House?

Which ones are up in 2010?

[NoBushSpokenHere]

1. Great question OP nt

[cliffordu]

15. Yes. Great question. K and R

:kick:

Fock. A question that didn't impugn anyones patriotism or worthiness.....need....nitro.....tablet......

[NJSecularist]

2. We would ideally like to win 18 of the 35 seats up for re-election in the Senate

If we do that, we'll have 55 seats and a very good chance to get important legislation from the new Democratic president passed. If we win 23 out of 35, we would have a filibuster proof majority, but it would take a miracle for that to happen. We aren't winning 23 seats this election.

We are in very good shape if we can win the general election. A new Democratic president will be almost assuredly be dealing with a Democratic majority in both houses.

[babylonsister]

3. Here's some numbers:

http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?parm1=5&docID=news-000002691579

snip//

The fundraising efforts of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), which assists its party’s candidates in U.S. Senate races, has been a notable success story since the 2006 campaign cycle that produced a six-seat gain and a Senate majority for the Democrats. And that trend continued in February, when the DSCC outraised its partisan counterpart, the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), by $4.8 million to $3.9 million, according to the campaign units’ latest reports to the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

The DSCC now has raised more money than the NRSC in each of the 14 months of the 2007-08 election cycle, with an advantage in total receipts of $64.1 million to $39.3 million. And the Democrats’ edge in money left to spend on this year’s campaigns looms even larger. The DSCC began March with $32.8 million to spend, more than twice the cash on hand — $15.3 million — reported by the NRSC.

That lopsided margin will allow the DSCC to deploy vast financial sums to their bids to take over seats currently held by Republican incumbents in this year’s elections. Although the Democrats’ current operational hold on 51 seats means the Republicans need just a two-seat gain to reclaim an outright majority, the odds currently favor additional Democratic gains instead. The Republicans are defending 23 seats, five of which have been left open by retiring incumbents. The Democrats have only 12 seats in play, with all of the party’s incumbents seeking re-election.

CQ Politics’ current ratings of the Senate races show there are far more serious bids by Democrats to take over Republican seats than there are in the other direction.

The NRSC’s fundraising might not be viewed as bad, in fact, considering that they’ve had to ask donors for money in the face of this highly unfavorable political map. The NRSC actually has more money to spend now than the committee had precisely two years ago, at the end of February 2006, when it had $14.5 million cash on hand. The Republicans then were defending a 55-45 majority that then seemed secure at the time.

[PM7nj]

10. Repubs can't get anyone to run here...

The New Jersey Republican Party is running around like a chicken with its head cut off trying to pick someone to run against Lautenberg. Current contenders are nutty Murry Sabrin, who has Ron Paul fundraising for him and whose former campaign manager was neo-nazi/Hannity friend Hal Turner, and nationalist Joe Pennacchio, who once wrote a manifesto saying the homeless should be sent to internment camps. They are still waiting for someone better, one state senator asked Ghoulliani to move to NJ and run :X

[sueragingroz]

4. This is something that requires serious consideration

I would propose that a separate "big" forum be dedicated to this but there are so many forums already...

[ColbertWatcher]

8. Maybe...

...we can post it to the election reform forum?

[grantcart]

5. From an earlier post

Tsunami in the Senate
Posted by grantcart in General Discussion
Sun Jan 06th 2008, 01:03 PM
Next year will be the election for the 2nd Class of Senators and it brings forth a perfect storm for Democrats.

Of the 33 Senators up for election 21 are Republicans and 12 are Democrats.
http://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/reference...

Of the democrats all but one is in a seat that is considered either very strong or strong and should run with little or no opposition and that is Landrieu in LA.

Of the republicans 9 seats are considered contestable. This does not include wild card seats like Craig ID, or Trent MS in which the republicans will have no incumbent.

4 Seats are vacated by retiring Allard CO, Domenici NM, Hagel NE, Warner VA.

4 Seats are held by republicans in democratic states; Coleman MN, Smith OR, Sununu NH, Collins ME

1 Seat is occupied by a republican currently being investigated by the FBI and could be taken if a good candidate runs
Stevens AL.

The Democratic Senate Campaign has been outraising the republicans by a 10-1 ratio.

It is easier for the Democrats to recruit good candidates because 1) Likely presidential coattails, 2)Higher interest in working in the majority party.

And finally we have the 'Macaca' factor. The rest of the republican candidates will say something stupid and Dean's strategy of having a good candidate in every contest will provide some surprises.

[ColbertWatcher]

6. EXCELLENT!

[SoCalDem]

13. Stevens -AK..not Alabama

:P

[grantcart]

7. and pollster has just start adding polls to early to mean much but here they are

[ColbertWatcher]

9. Which races/seats are the most vulnerable?

Anyone know?

[grantcart]

11. I am guessing but I think with an Obama campaign

CO and VA are considered near locks

NH and OR very good

MN probable

[ColbertWatcher]

12. Cool. Which ones should we be worried about?

Which races are most vulnerable?

Which ones need help?

[BumRushDaShow]

14. Exactly.

I argued this in another thread.

We might have a Dem President up there but if the Senate doesn't shift significantly, then the repukes there are guaranteed to filibuster any bill that the Dems want passed. I understand that there are 22 repukes up for reelection in this year's Senate contest (the Senate votes in 3 blocks - 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 or thereabouts, with a contest every 2 years). I believe 6 repukes have either signaled their intention to not run again or have already resigned. The Dems need enough in there, along with a few moderate repukes who would be willing to invoke cloture (60 votes needed) to break a repuke filibuster so a bill can get passed.