New Arizona and Vermont Polls

[Thrill]

Arizona

ARIZONA (Bush in 2000 by 6.3 percentage points)
Behavior Research Center, April 29-May 4, 555 RV, MoE +/-4

(Two-way)

George W. Bush, 46 percent
John Kerry 42 percent
Undecided, 12 percent


(Three-way)
Bush, 45 percent
Kerry, 37 percent
Ralph Nader 7 percent

Undecided, 11 percent

Vermont(Gore in 2000 by 9.9 percentage points)

Research 2000 for WCAX-TV, April 28-30, 400 LV, MoE +/-5



Kerry, 51 percent
Bush, 36 percent
Nader, 4 percent

Undecided, 9 percent

[WI_DEM]

1. yep

Nader and the anti-war Independents are going to be a factor in 2004.

[lancdem]

3. We don't even know if he'll get on the ballot

I believe he'll be less of a factor than he was in 2000.

[Monte Carlo]

2. Kerry could win Arizona.

Every sense I've gotten about the state's voting habits tells me that they lean Republican, but has a very independent, moderate-to-conservative voting base that tends to notice fiscal responsibility (or lack thereof) and civil liberties records. Kerry could win these people over.

The fact that Bush has leaned so radically to the right gives Kerry an opportunity to capture some of the swayed. In a place like Arizona (or N.H., maybe), I'd bet you he could do it.

[blondeatlast]

4. Been an AZer since age 10 (30+ years), and you have

the average AZ voter dead-on.

The average AZ conservative voter is NOT NeoCon.

[Darkamber]

7. Do you think the VP choice could influence AZ voters..

I was born and raised in Arizona in a Republican family, which might explain why I'm a moderate and fiscal conservative.

McCain Republicans I believe are pissed at Bush and the deficient.

Any feeling there if the VP choice could make a difference on those swing voters?

[blondeatlast]

8. Definitely. Most of the moderate indys I know are already on board

with Kerry, but for the undecided, the right VP can win here.

[West Coast Democrat]

5. I wonder what Nader was polling at in 1996.........

when Clinton won in a landslide, including many Republican-dominated states.

[prodigal_green]

6. How badly has the Air Force suffered during this war?

returning vets will probably turn a few of those Undecideds into Kerrys.