“…while one-half of the people of the United States are robbed of their inherent right of personal representation in this freest country on the face of the globe, it is idle for us to expect that the men who thus rob women will not rob each other as individuals, corporations and Government.” Susan B. Anthony
The mainstream media has told us time and again about Hillary’s secret diabolical strategy to steal the Democratic nomination, but no one talks about the Obama campaign’s plan to win that same nomination without actually having to complete the whole primary—with all the risks that entails. Here it is---the secret plan that all Obama supporter know but will not admit, just as all Republicans know that voter ID laws are about keeping minorities and the poor(both likely Democrats) from the polls.
The Obama strategy to win the nomination through voter suppression is very simple. If there are not enough delegates in play for a candidate to get the required 2024 to win, then she can not win except with Superdelegate help---which Obama has declared undemocratic. During this window of opportunity, Obama has a lead over Hillary in both delegates and total votes. It is not overwhelming, though many Obama supporters like to exaggerate and claim that it is. Here are the numbers.
From CNN, Obama has 1621 total delegates ( 1413 pledged and 208 super) and Hillary has 1479 (1242 and 237). There are currently 566 delegates remaining to be cast in the remaining states and 360 Superdelegates. That is 926 total, enough to put Obama over the top if he does well, but probably not Hillary---
as long as Obama can keep the voters of Florida and Michigan disenfranchised. That is why Obama is trying so hard to keep the Democrats from those states from having a say in this primary.
The Obama strategy is actually quite brilliant. Claim that he has a mandate because for the moment he is ahead in delegates and votes. Never mind that someone else could have made the same claim at some other point in time. He can argue that
this moment is all important for any one of a million reasons. Because so and so in the press says it is. Because the Republicans have a nominee (never mind that McCain has reached his spending limit). A whole bunch of Obama supporters have decided that
we can not wait until Denver (or the Pennsylvania primary). Hillary must drop out now! For the good of the party, of course.
Claim there is no way that Hillary can ever get 2024 delegates. Do not explain exactly why Hillary can not get 2024 votes. But work like mad to prevent voting in Michigan and Florida. At all costs, the Obama camp must keep those 367 delegates out of play.
Michigan and Florida will become pariah within the party. They broke the rules. They must be punished. Never mind that the people themselves are innocent. Never mind that the states electoral votes will be needed for a Democratic victory in the fall. Anyone who talks of strategic considerations like that is self serving (as Keith Olbermann and Chuck Todd agreed on Countdown on 3-19 when they distorted this article about Hillary from the WaPo
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/10/11/AR2007101100859.html Clinton's comment reflects an optimism she will win her party's nomination to face the Republican nominee in November 2008. She said any snub to Michigan could hurt her _ and all Democrats' _ chances to defeat the Republicans there.
Snip
"I did not believe it was fair to just say, 'Goodbye Michigan' and not take into account the fact we're going to have to win Michigan if we're going to be in the White House in January 2009," she said.
Forget and cover up the fact that Obama, Edwards, Richardson and Biden dropped off the Michigan ballot as one in October in order to curry favor with Iowan voters, who were incensed at Michigan for stealing their thunder, and also to hurt Hillary by leaving her alone on the ballot which would make her beauty contest win in the state less of a triumph while hurting her in the Iowan primary.
Here is Crooksandliars with video of Chuck Todd and David Schuster discussing the less than altruistic reasons why Obama dropped from the Michigan ballot
http://www.crooksandliars.com/2007/10/09/obama-edwards-richardson-pull-out-of-michigan-primaryAnd then there is this:
http://iowaindependent.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=1264 Iowans are by and large straightforward people. Given that, it should come as no surprise that to the average Iowan, the Michigan ballot situation seems pretty cut and dried: Democratic presidential hopefuls who honor their four-state pledge and support the nomination calendar won't be on the Wolverine State's ballot. As with most things in life, and especially politics, the situation is more complicated.
Five individuals connected to five different campaigns have confirmed -- but only under condition of anonymity -- that the situation that developed in connection with the Michigan ballot is not at all as it appears on the surface. The campaign for Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, arguably fearing a poor showing in Michigan, reached out to the others with a desire of leaving New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton as the only candidate on the ballot. The hope was that such a move would provide one more political obstacle for the Clinton campaign to overcome in Iowa.
No, the official Obama campaign line must be that Hillary broke some promise that she made not to “participate” in Michigan.
Funny.
I have repeatedly challenged Obama supporters at DU to supply a link or proof that there was some agreement that the candidates not be on the ballot in Michigan. So far, no one has been able to do it. All I get are repetitions of “Hillary said she would not participate” like one of those dolls that repeats a chosen phrase when you pull a string.
Here is what the WaPo link above says that the candidates agreed to do. I do not notice any retractions or corrections:
The Democratic presidential candidates already had pledged not to campaign in Michigan because the state had broken Democratic National Committee rules by scheduling its primary ahead of Feb. 5. The rules ban states from holding their 2008 contests before Feb. 5, except Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina.
The candidates are allowed to visit Michigan to raise money and can send their spouses to campaign, but they can't run advertisements, hold rallies or do most of the other things that would help give them a leg up on their opponents.
I think I know where this misconception about “participate” started. We see the Obama camp attempt to lay the groundwork for this myth (which is now one of two that Obama supporters use in place of rational arguments) immediately after the Michigan primary
http://video1.washingtontimes.com/bellantoni/2008/01/clinton_wins_michigan.html TO: Interested Parties
FR: The Obama Campaign
RE: Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary
Because Michigan violated DNC rules by placing its Presidential Primary on January15th, the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee ruled that the Michigan Democratic Party could not use the results of the January 15 Presidential Primary to allocate delegates to the 2008 Democratic National Convention. In other words, no delegates are at stake today in the Michigan Democratic Primary.
All of the Democratic presidential candidates publicly pledged not to campaign in Michigan, none have visited the state, opened offices, hired staff or communicated with voters through television, mail, phones or otherwise. In addition, four Democratic presidential candidates, Obama, Edwards, Richardson and Biden withdrew their names from the Primary ballot in order to avoid participating in the Michigan Primary. Clinton did not withdraw her name even though she publicly committed to not participate in the Primary. Clinton, Dodd, Gravel and Kucinich are the only candidates on the ballot today. The Obama Campaign is not participating in the Primary and has not instructed supporters in Michigan whether or how to vote.
Therefore the results of the primary tonight have no bearing on the Democratic nomination contest.
Florida, whose primary was scheduled for January 29th, is just like Michigan — the DNC applied full sanctions for setting an early primary date and there are no delegates are at stake. As with Michigan, all of the Democratic presidential candidates signed a pledge to not campaign in Florida. Although Senator Obama did not remove his name from the Florida Primary ballot because Florida law did not allow him to do so, Senator Obama is firm in his commitment to neither participate nor campaign in the Florida Primary and its outcome has no bearing on the nomination contest. We raise Florida today because Senator Clinton has scheduled a fundraiser in Florida on Jan. 27th, and there are signs — despite Senator Clinton's public pledge to the contrary — that she may be planning to campaign in the state — inquiring about large venues and increased organizing activity — ahead of the Florida primary.
Our position and the position of the DNC is clear — neither the Florida nor Michigan primaries are playing any role in deciding the Democratic nominee and we are not campaigning in either state.
The Clinton camp issued this response:
To: Interested Parties
From: The Clinton Campaign
Regarding: Michigan and Florida Presidential Primaries
The Obama campaign today circulated a memo regarding today's Michigan primary and the January 29 Florida primary. This memo was concerning on several levels.
Let us be very clear. Senator Clinton signed a pledge that she would not campaign in any state that violates the DNC approved calendar. Therefore, we did not campaign in Michigan, nor will we campaign in Florida in violation of the pledge. We have two small scheduled fundraisers in South Florida on January 27, as explicitly permitted by the pledge, but we will not hold any open public campaign events. The Obama campaign has also held numerous fundraisers in Florida since signing the pledge. Contrary to the Obama campaign's memo, there are no events at large venues, nor have we organized in the state. We intend to do so as our party's nominee in the general election, but will honor our pledge not to campaign there in violation of the pledge.
Let us be clear about something else, however. While Senator Clinton will honor her commitment not to campaign in Florida in violation of the pledge, she also intends to honor her pledge to hear the voices of all Americans. The people of Michigan and Florida have just as much of a right to have their voices heard as anyone else. It is disappointing to hear a major Democratic presidential candidate tell the voters of ANY state that their voices aren't important.
Make no mistake — the Obama campaign had no problems when its supporters and allies in Michigan ran radio ads and other campaign activities urging people to vote for "uncommitted" as a way to register their support for Senator Obama — and to give him a chance to compete for those delegates at the national convention. Now, with polls in recent days showing that effort and their candidate running far behind in both states, the Obama campaign has shifted tactics to say that those who cast a vote in either state don't matter. We couldn't disagree more.
Senator Clinton intends to be President for all fifty states. And while she will honor the pledge she signed and not campaign in either state, she intends to continue to give every American a voice during this election and when she gets to the White House.
Important points to note. Obama sent out a press release claiming that he and the others were not on the ballot in Michigan because of a verbal agreement not to participate. Hillary’s campaign disputes this, referring to the signed pledge as the only agreement. In a case where a pledge has been signed, most people would assume that it is the binding agreement since words spoken aloud and spontaneously are notoriously imprecise and open to misinterpretation (sometimes deliberate).
Hillary writes that the pledge she made was "to hear the voices of all Americans". It is going to be mighty difficult for any Obama supporters to say that she did not make such a pledge, especially when she was quoted in the WaPo giving an excellent reason why the Democrats should listen.
Hillary’s campaign also catches the Obama campaign in several distortions, notably that he did not campaign in Michigan or fundraise in Florida and also accuses him of spreading unfounded rumors that she is planning to cheat in Florida. This is not the first time that Obama has publicly accused her of
planning to cheat. During campaigning in Iowa, a state notorious for its hatred of dirty tricks, Obama repeated Bob Novak’s unsupported allegations that Hillary was collecting dirt on her opponent, a dirty trick of his own that probably hurt her with Iowa voters.
Note the date, Jan. 15, 2008. Some Obama supporters have claimed that Hillary took no interest in Michigan or Florida until she was behind. However, this was immediately after New Hampshire, when she was still the front runner. Her position is consistent with her statement in October, 2007. She says that it is important that all Democrats be given a chance to vote.
Now refer back to the Washington Post article linked above. The reason KO and Chuck Todd looked this one up is it contains a famous line that the Obama folks gave the Drudge treatment. You know—take a single line out of context and claim that its sums up everything that a person believes. Drudge did it to Hillary with her
60 Minutes interview and a bunch of Obama supporters (including KO) were dutifully impressed at Matt Drudge’s ingenuity. So, they are doing it too. Here is the line that was quoted to me at least five times in a thread as if this gem contained the wisdom of the universe. One especially clever Obama fan said “That says it all.” Another said “End of debate.”
The Official All Purpose Michigan Snappy Come Back. "It's clear, this election they're having is not going to count for anything," Hillary.
Since context counts, please read the entire Washington Post article—something KO did not do on Countdown. In the rest of the article, she goes on to say that she stayed on the ballot so Michigan voters would not be offended and so that the eventual Democratic nominee would have less risk of losing the state in the fall.
Now, what did Hillary not say? She did not say that Michigan the state did not count. She did not say that they would
never count. She did not say that the voters were guilty of a crime and deserved to be punished. She did not say that Democrats could win the November election without them. She did not reject the state the way that KO wanted her to reject Ferraro. She did not say that the Democratic Party would not have to come to some agreement in the future---that a truce of some kind would not have to be forged in order to regain the trust of Michigan voters whom the Party needs for a general election win.
All she really said was that there would be no automatic seating of the delegates from that early election.And there has been no automatic seating of the delegates from that early election. The fate of the Democratic voters of the state of Michigan—
their ability to participate in the primary nomination process which is an important part in the democratic process--- is still in the hands of the Obama camp which would prefer to keep Michigan’s delegates out of play, even though the latest polls show that he and Hillary are neck and neck.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/michigan/michigan_2008_presidential_election Michigan is in the midst of a controversy concerning the seating of its delegates to the Democratic National Convention. Michigan Democrats favor a re-vote and a Rasmussen Reports telephone survey found that a do-over Primary would currently result in a tie between Clinton and Obama.
If you consider this poll and the rising anger and resentment of the voters of the state of Michigan towards the Democratic Party, Obama’s opposition by silence towards a re-do of the primary makes no sense. If the primary were held again, it would not change the difference between his delegate count and Hillary’s. He would still be ahead. And the eventual winner would have won the favor of the voters of Michigan.
The only way a re-do of Michigan could hurt him is by inching Hillary’s delegate count up enough that her total might become high enough that she too could reach the magic 2024 without Superdelegates.Is keeping the total pool of delegates artificially low sufficient justification for voter suppression within the Democratic primary?The exact same thing goes for Florida, except that their case is even more unfortunate, since it was the Republicans who forced the early primary. And Obama’s name was actually on that ballot. However, you will still read posters at DU talk about the possibility that Democrats in Florida might get a chance to vote in a new election as being the same kind of election fraud as that which Jeb Bush perpetrated in 2000 when he drew up a phony felons list that kept Blacks from voting. Florida is maligned, even though the state of Florida could be critical to a Democratic victory this fall . Again, if Obama campaigns in Florida, he will not lose to Hillary by 17 points. The state will be much more like Texas. He might lose by a few points but it won’t take away his lead.
What it will do is add enough delegates back to the total voting pool that Hillary will now be within reach of the 2024 delegates if the Democratic primary plays out to a fair conclusion. Or she might not. It depends upon the will of the voters.
For some reason,
Obama does not want to leave it in the hands of the voters. Like a certain notorious Republican election manipulator, he would like to have The Math stacked in his favor, even if it means slapping two important electoral swing states in the face.
Now, consider what started this mess. No, it was not Hillary’s ambition. The reason why Hillary “can not win” is because two of the states which should have been in her column were excluded. For all we know, the RNC directed Florida to make its move in May 2007 for this very reason, in order to facilitate Karl Rove’s “Brokered Democratic Strategy” in which the Democratic nomination process becomes chaotic. Michigan followed Florida’s example. It could have been worse. More states could have done the same. As it is, we are in our current situation---Hillary unable to win by delegate count---only because the Republicans moved up Florida’s primary, which triggered Michigan to copy them.
And now, Obama wants to preserve this unnatural advantage that the Republicans have given him by making sure that the votes of the people in Michigan and Florida are never counted.
This is not democracy. This is voter suppression.What comes after the voter suppression, when it is impossible for Hillary to get 2024 delegates, because Obama has made sure that the pool is short a few hundred delegates? Create dissension within the ranks of the Democratic Party by having his own supporters begin accusing Hillary of being a “cheater” a “vote stealer” a “corrupt politician” who is somehow thwarting the Democratic process by trying to find a way to get the votes of the Democrats of Michigan and Florida counted. The MSM which regularly accuses Hillary of being every variety of witch-bitch can always be counted upon to join in on a good old fashioned Hillary bashing. Obama can point to his endorsement by such party insiders as Ted Kennedy and John Kerry as proof that he has been the equivalent of anointed as the next nominee but at the same time court the Party’s liberal left wing by claiming that Hillary is allied with the Party’s establishment which must be overthrown to achieve change. He can claim that it is crucial to heal the rift within the Party---which is largely due to the loud and angry accusations of his supporters---and that only Obama the unifier can do so.
The way I see it, the people of Michigan and Florida need to be placated if we are to have a chance of winning this fall's election. They will not be placated unless they get some say in this, the
most important Dempcratic primary in 70 years . The Democratic primary must play out to its end, even if that means going to Denver without a declared winner. There are elected party leaders whose job description includes settling ties through votes and revotes and bargaining at the convention. There is a reason we send real live people and not just boxes full of ballots.
It took FDR four ballots to get the nomination, but he got it, so please chill out. The rest of the country is watching us act like a bunch of crazy fools, and they are thinking
If they can not run their party any better than that, can they run a country? “A man without a vote is man without protection.” LBJ
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