Federal Review Composite Poll: Bush 283-Kerry 255

[phillybri]

http://www.federalreview.com/compositepoll.htm

PRE-AD BLITZ Bush 49.46 | Kerry 48.36
May 4, 2004

As John Kerry readies his $25 million ad buy targeted at 19 states, the race remains close. The only difference from 2000 is that New Mexico slips into Bush’s column.

The polls still show continued weakness for President Bush. He doesn’t reach 50 percent in any polls. That’s not good for a President that is well known by the electorate. At least Kerry can argue that he is un- or poorly defined, and now he gets his chance to define himself – a $25 million chance.

Without allocating the undecided vote, the composite result is Bush 45 | Kerry 43. That leaves 12% undecided or voting for Nader. We’re about 180 days from the election and there’s still a lot to happen.

Many complaints are arising on the left that Kerry can’t win. It’s early, and Kerry has plenty of time to continue to try to define himself. Will his ad blitz work, or will he find out that everyone knows the John Kerry, war hero, depicted in the ads? But I bet he’ll get a bounce. Then, he can expect another bounce when he picks his Vice President and when he has his convention in late July. The problem for Kerry is that the Republican convention should give Bush a bounce, and this year that bounce will come late, as the convention is in the first week of September. A bounce that late could put Bush in the lead for good, regardless of the good will Kerry collects in late July. Another potential problem for Kerry, is that the Olympics follow his convention. Will people maintain their focus on the election, or will those who bounce to Kerry in July slide back to undecided during the Olympics, ripe for returning to Bush during his 4 day ad early September?

Watch this space for the trends.

Another Methodology change. We now include the Rasmussen poll, primarily to combat any perceived pro-Bush bias in this Composite Poll, as the Rasmussen poll has been more likely to show a Kerry lead than other polls. You’ve read my complaints about Rasmussen’s methodology, so I don’t give the poll as much weight as others, and, to eliminate the wild swings in Rasmussen’s results that are expected when polling 500 by recorded phone call each day, we average his daily results over a week. This shows a remarkably stable race. The Composite Poll history has been revised to reflect the use of the Rasmussen Poll beginning in the April 6 poll. This has helped Kerry’s historic numbers, even having a lead in the national Composite Poll on April 6 and April 13. Because of the burden, I have not rerun the numbers for the electoral vote. We’re far enough out that the real value of this poll to show trends should still be evident as our Bounce events come along.

This Week’s Polls
CBS / New York Times
Rasmussen Research
Iowa Electronic Market

Last Week’s Polls
FoxNews / Opinion Dynamics
Investor’s Business Daily /Christian Science Monitor
Iowa Electronic Market
1
Since last week’s polls:

Bush State Gains
None

Kerry State Gains
Oregon
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania

[DarthReagan]

1. The map

[lancdem]

9. This is tilted way too much toward Bush

Kerry is leading in N.H., so that's not leaning Bush; Arkansas is tied, so that's not leaning Bush. Also, New Mexico is tied, and that's a blue state, so why are they giving it to Bush? And Ohio and Florida are tied, too, not leaning Bush at this point.

Even so, Kerry has closed the gap considerably in the past week, even with this site's seeming pro-Bush bias.

[DarthReagan]

11. No tossups

I'm not copping out and writing "too close to call", hence the leans Bush or leans Kerry. In fact, WI and NM only lean by 0.02 percent according to the analysis (all of the numbers are here - http://www.federalreview.com/compositepoll.htm).

NH would be in Kerry's column if I'd seen today's latest poll (mentioned here: http://www.federalreview.com/2004_05_02_blogarchive.htm#108370552370244632)

Ohio and Florida are merely leans and within any margin of error. Though I get complaints that this is titled toward Bush, no one seems to notice that I have Virginia as a mere "lean" even though no one seems to think this is a Battleground.

[ButterflyBlood]

15. There is no way Delaware is stronger than Maryland

that discredits the map.

[phillybri]

2. Kick

:kick:

[Nashyra]

3. Clark would take New Mexico out of the red colum

and I bet Ohio and Nevada too

[phillybri]

4. I saw a poll that said Arkansas is tied....

That would put that one in the Blue column as well...

[DarthReagan]

5. Arkansas in Kerry column

If subsequent polls show a Kerry lead, that would be picked up in this methodology and the state would turn light blue. As we get closer to the election, when a state changes color, you can bank on the prediction (disclaimer: barring unusual circumstances, of course).

[Lavalamp]

12. Poor strat

It should be up to Kerry to secure states. He is running against quite possibly the worst president in american history. Bush should be royally screwed at the moment, but he's not. Kerry needs to find a strat that works NOW. HE needs to win people over, and right now I'm not very impressed with his progress.

[phillybri]

6. Kick

:kick:

[On the Road]

7. So the Gap is 28 Electoral Votes

and to win, Kerry has to swing more than 14 into the blue column without losing any.

OH or FL alone would do the trick. Even without one of those states, a combination of NH, WV, NM, MO, and AR would be more than enough.

I hope this is not wishful thinking. I've been saying that whoever wins FL, PA, and OH (or 2 out of 3) will win the election. For the first time, I can see Kerry winning even if he only wins one.

[phillybri]

8. That's my thinking...Nevada is a possibility, too...

:kick: for the afternoon crowd...

[DarthReagan]

10. The real battlegrounds

To win, Kerry absolutely must win any three of Missouri, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida. Go ahead and write Michigan in pen and pencil in Pennsylvania. The battle will focus on Ohio and Florida, because Missouri means he better hold onto NM or pick up NH (I think he has a better shot at NH than NM, unless he picks Richardson).

[dusty64]

13. Looks better than

last week. I still wouldn't consider New Mexico leaning rethug as it has gone Democratic the last three elections and I see NO reason that should change.

[goobergunch]

14. According to the latest state polling

Kerry leads Bush* 169-162, with 135 EV too close to call and no polls available for 72 EV.

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/2004/polls04.htm

Personally I think we have a better shot at Washington, Michigan and especially Wisconsin than that polling indicates. The evidence, including the original post's analysis, shows that despite my many complaints about Kerry's campaign, he should do well enough to unseat Bush*.

And if he doesn't, we're all in trouble.

[dusty64]

16. Great news!

Historically trends are important when looking at these maps. Some from that link seem like they will not be as "too close to call" as they seem.