GOP/LImbaugh effect on Dem Primaries is statistically marginal but one number really sticks out

[Perky]

Details Details 4% 41% 55% 957,650 389,553 528,697
Date Winner State GOP Sample Clinton Obama Clinton Obama
….. ….. ….. ….. GOP Voters ….. GOP Voters ….. GOP Total ….. GOP Voters ….. GOP Voters ….. GOP% of Clinton Vote ….. GOP% of Obama Vote
3-Jan-08 ….. O ….. IA ….. 3% ….. 10% ….. 44% ….. 7,170 ….. 717 ….. 3,154.80 ….. 1% ….. 3%
8-Jan-08 ….. C1 ….. NH ….. 3% ….. ….. ….. 8,642 ….. - ….. - ….. 0% ….. 0%
19-Jan-08 ….. C1 ….. NV ….. 4% ….. ….. ….. 4,760 ….. - ….. - ….. 0% ….. 0%
26-Jan-08 ….. O ….. SC ….. 4% ….. 20% ….. 37% ….. 21,201 ….. 4,240 ….. 7,844.33 ….. 3% ….. 3%
29-Jan-08 ….. NV ….. FL ….. 4% ….. 23% ….. 27% ….. 67,376 ….. 15,496 ….. 18,191.41 ….. 2% ….. 3%
5-Feb-08 ….. C ….. OK ….. 7% ….. 0% ….. 0% ….. 28,086 ….. - ….. - ….. 0% ….. 0%
5-Feb-08 ….. O ….. IL ….. 6% ….. 32% ….. 63% ….. 120,230 ….. 38,474 ….. 75,745.15 ….. 6% ….. 6%
5-Feb-08 ….. O ….. MO ….. 6% ….. 21% ….. 75% ….. 49,227 ….. 10,338 ….. 36,920.39 ….. 3% ….. 9%
5-Feb-08 ….. O ….. AL ….. 6% ….. 56% ….. 42% ….. 32,385 ….. 18,135 ….. 13,601.52 ….. 8% ….. 4%
5-Feb-08 ….. O ….. UT ….. 5% ….. 0% ….. 0% ….. 6,131 ….. - ….. - ….. 0% ….. 0%
5-Feb-08 ….. O ….. GA ….. 4% ….. 0% ….. 0% ….. 41,859 ….. - ….. - ….. 0% ….. 0%
5-Feb-08 ….. O ….. AR ….. 4% ….. 0% ….. 0% ….. 11,541 ….. - ….. - ….. 0% ….. 0%
5-Feb-08 ….. C ….. NJ ….. 3% ….. 0% ….. 0% ….. 33,281 ….. - ….. - ….. 0% ….. 0%
5-Feb-08 ….. C ….. TN ….. 3% ….. 0% ….. 0% ….. 18,123 ….. - ….. - ….. 0% ….. 0%
5-Feb-08 ….. C ….. MA ….. 2% ….. 0% ….. 0% ….. 24,882 ….. - ….. - ….. 0% ….. 0%
5-Feb-08 ….. C ….. AZ ….. 2% ….. 0% ….. 0% ….. 7,791 ….. - ….. - ….. 0% ….. 0%
5-Feb-08 ….. O ….. CT ….. 2% ….. 0% ….. 0% ….. 7,012 ….. - ….. - ….. 0% ….. 0%
5-Feb-08 ….. C ….. NM ….. 2% ….. 0% ….. 0% ….. 2,768 ….. - ….. - ….. 0% ….. 0%
5-Feb-08 ….. C ….. NY ….. 1% ….. 0% ….. 0% ….. 17,213 ….. - ….. - ….. 0% ….. 0%
5-Feb-08 ….. O ….. DE ….. 1% ….. 0% ….. 0% ….. 960 ….. - ….. - ….. 0% ….. 0%
5-Feb-08 ….. C ….. CA ….. 0% ….. 0% ….. 0% ….. - ….. - ….. - ….. 0% ….. 0%
9-Feb-08 ….. O ….. LA ….. 5% ….. 17% ….. 53% ….. 19,347 ….. 3,289 ….. 10,254.01 ….. 2% ….. 5%
12-Feb-08 ….. O ….. VA ….. 7% ….. 25% ….. 71% ….. 67,484 ….. 16,871 ….. 47,913.48 ….. 5% ….. 8%
12-Feb-08 ….. O ….. MD ….. 4% ….. 0% ….. 0% ….. 38,562 ….. - ….. - ….. 0% ….. 0%
19-Feb-08 ….. O ….. WI ….. 9% ….. 28% ….. 72% ….. 99,963 ….. 27,990 ….. 71,973.49 ….. 6% ….. 11%
4-Mar-08 ….. C1 ….. TX ….. 9% ….. 46% ….. 53% ….. 253,674 ….. 116,690 ….. 134,447.18 ….. 8% ….. 10%
4-Mar-08 ….. C ….. OH ….. 9% ….. 49% ….. 49% ….. 196,823 ….. 96,443 ….. 96,443.22 ….. 8% ….. 10%
11-Mar-08 ….. O ….. MS ….. 13% ….. 77% ….. 23% ….. 53,078 ….. 40,870 ….. 12,207.96 ….. 26% ….. 5%


Mississippi numbers show that the turnout was three times as high as normal (although since the GOP race has been settled the numbers are generally higher in crossovers. But the really stunning number is that 77% share Clinton got which actually gave her 26% og her total votes in the state.


Now none of the GOP Grossover votes flipped the results, but clearly something happened in the last three or four races starting with Wisconsin to start a run of substantially higher cross-over. Especially when compared to other Southern Primaries

[Nitrogenica]

1. I have heard a lot of peopel tell me about their right wing friend who

voted for Senator Clinton because they think it's good political strategy.

[jackson_dem]

2. Are indies under the control of Limbaugh too because the same thing happened with them?

Obama's usual 2:1 margins among indies slipped to the 2 and 1 point in Ohio and Texas respectively. Was that because of Limbaugh too? Or maybe it is because of the same thing that has caused Obama's net favorability rating to drop 17 points since Feb. 21?

MS was an anomaly due to racial voting. Since almost all Republicans are white she got almost all the GOP vote in MS.

[Perky]

3. Here are the number on the Indy voting

The first percentage is the percen of the voters defining themselves as Independents

The nect two number are Clinton's and Obama's portion of that gtoup. Edwards numbers are omitted

Date Winner State IND Sample Clinton Obama
IND Voters IND Voters
3-Jan-08 O IA 21% 17% 41%
8-Jan-08 C1 NH 44% 31% 41%
19-Jan-08 C1 NV 15% 33% 47%
26-Jan-08 O SC 23% 26% 42%
29-Jan-08 NV FL 17% 40% 30%
5-Feb-08 C OK 15% 41% 38%
5-Feb-08 O IL 17% 20% 75%
5-Feb-08 O MO 22% 30% 67%
5-Feb-08 O AL 13% 46% 45%
5-Feb-08 O UT 32% 26% 68%
5-Feb-08 O GA 18% 34% 63%
5-Feb-08 O AR 20% 46% 34%
5-Feb-08 C NJ 20% 40% 53%
5-Feb-08 C TN 20% 43% 47%
5-Feb-08 C MA 33% 54% 42%
5-Feb-08 C AZ 20% 35% 55%
5-Feb-08 O CT 19% 31% 58%
5-Feb-08 C NM 12% 24% 63%
5-Feb-08 C NY 12% 40% 55%
5-Feb-08 O DE 15% 44% 50%
5-Feb-08 C CA 17% 33% 56%
9-Feb-08 O LA 12% 36% 53%
12-Feb-08 O VA 22% 32% 67%
12-Feb-08 O MD 13% 27% 62%
19-Feb-08 O WI 27% 34% 63%
4-Mar-08 C1 TX 25% 48% 49%
4-Mar-08 C OH 22% 48% 50%
11-Mar-08 O MS 17% 48% 51%

[Nitrogenica]

4. Amazing. Link?

[Perky]

5. I am a freak

It is all from the CNN exit polls...


I have it all in a spreadsheet that I put together and keep updated.

I can sen you the SPreadsheet...Just PM me.