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CNN Poll: Majority of Democrats prefer Obama. Court ruling on FL delegates imminent

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madfloridian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-17-08 04:50 PM
Original message
CNN Poll: Majority of Democrats prefer Obama. Court ruling on FL delegates imminent
Edited on Mon Mar-17-08 05:28 PM by madfloridian
Poll: Majority of Democrats prefer Obama

A majority of Democrats would like to see Barack Obama rather than Hillary Clinton win their party's presidential nomination, according to a national poll out Monday.

Fifty-two percent of registered Democrats questioned in a new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey say the senator from Illinois is their choice for president, with 45 percent supporting Clinton.

The poll also suggests Democrats are more enthusiastic about an Obama victory (45 percent) than for a victory by the senator from New York (38 percent).

The two remaining major candidates for the Democratic presidential nomination are locked in a fierce battle for their party's presidential nomination, with Obama holding a slight lead both in delegates and the overall popular vote in the primaries and caucuses to date.

"The same patterns that we have been seeing in recent exit polls are holding true for Democrats nationwide as well. Obama's biggest support comes from men, younger voters and independents who lean Democratic," CNN polling director Keating Holland said. "Clinton does best among women, older voters and whites. One interesting difference, unlike the exit polls in many states, there is no difference in the national poll between college-educated Democrats and those who never attended college."


But it all may be moot after the DiMaio v DNC verdict. It was heard today. I have not seen a ruling, but some of the questions toward the DNC make me wonder nervously if they are about to get involved in our party business.

It could decide it all for us. It sounds like they are skeptical of the DNC's power in when primaries are scheduled. There is already Supreme Court precedent, so this is scary.

Primary Appeal

"But the judges on Monday sounded skeptical of Steinberg's equal protection claim, noting in their questions that states select their presidential picks in different ways _ some use caucuses and others primaries _ and on different days. Judge Stanley Marcus suggested at one point that the only way to treat all the states equally, under Steinberg's theory, was for them to all hold their primaries on the same day."

"But the judges also tested the limits of Sandler's argument that the DNC rules prevail when it comes to scheduling state primaries.

Marcus asked whether the party can constitutionally exclude some states from the process altogether by allowing only small states to vote, for example, because the big states already hold political sway.

``Obviously, it would be political suicide but that's not what I'm asking,'' he said.

Sandler said he did not think that would be permissible but continued that was not happened in Florida, where the state was allowed to vote just not on the date they chose.

Sandler also said that DiMaio lacks standing to bring the suit, because his court filing doesn't say whether he even voted in the state's Jan. 29 election."


Do we say hello to nominee Clinton if the court decides the original primary stands? I need to look up the delegate count.

There is already a Supreme Court precedent on the side of the DNC. That makes me more concerned that the judge would ask the question.

Supreme Court precedent in favor of DNC

The 1981 Supreme Court decision for the case Democratic Party of U.S. v. Wisconsin, 450 U.S. 107 clearly states that the Democratic National Committee can make and enforce the rules on the delegate process.

"The State has a substantial interest in the manner in which its elections are conducted, and the National Party has a substantial interest in the manner in which the delegates to its National Convention are selected. But these interests are not incompatible, and to the limited extent they clash in this case, both interests can be preserved. The National Party rules do not forbid Wisconsin to conduct an open primary. But if Wisconsin does open its primary, it cannot require that Wisconsin delegates to the National Party Convention vote there in accordance with the primary results, if to do so would violate Party rules. Since the Wisconsin Supreme Court has declared that the National Party cannot disqualify delegates who are bound to vote in accordance with the results of the Wisconsin open primary, its judgment is reversed.

It is so ordered."


The judge's question makes it sound like the spin from Florida Democratic leaders has worked more than I ever suspected. I hope we see the ruling soon.

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madfloridian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-17-08 04:53 PM
Response to Original message
1. With no redo...this could be more important. Concerned.
:shrug:
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madfloridian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-17-08 04:54 PM
Response to Original message
2. Keep an eye out for ruling in DiMaio v DNC
I won't be on much this evening.
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flpoljunkie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-17-08 04:54 PM
Response to Original message
3. It seem the judges were just as skeptical of DiMaio's lawyer, Steinberg's arguments.
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madfloridian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-17-08 04:56 PM
Response to Reply #3
5. I agree, but the questions to Sandler are odd.
Just mixed feelings.
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meow mix Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-17-08 04:55 PM
Response to Original message
4. Hillary scores a 38 percent
:nuke:
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mnhtnbb Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-17-08 04:59 PM
Response to Original message
6. We all know what happens when courts get involved in FL.
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madfloridian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-17-08 05:00 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. I am concerned that more are not more concerned.
It really worries me.
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madfloridian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-17-08 05:03 PM
Response to Original message
8. DiMaio said they would go all the way to the Supreme Court. Can he?
Or is there a way a court can end the process. I am no lawyer, and that is a serious question.
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Johnny__Motown Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-17-08 05:05 PM
Response to Reply #8
10. I don't think the Supreme Court will take the case. Political Parties can set their own rules
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stillcool Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-17-08 05:08 PM
Response to Reply #10
11. that's what they said about Gore vs. Bush
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KaptBunnyPants Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-17-08 05:26 PM
Response to Reply #8
14. I believe they can issue a ruling with prejudice, limiting the chance of appeal.
But I'm not a lawyer, so what do I know...
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madfloridian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-17-08 06:43 PM
Response to Reply #14
20. I know we have lawyers here....wish they would respond.
This whole thing is odd.
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Hawkeye-X Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-17-08 07:07 PM
Response to Reply #14
22. EXTREME prejudice, I might add.
I want to see sanctions hit on DiMaio for the waste of time. Make him pay for DNC lawyer's fees and court costs.

Hawkeye-X
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madfloridian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-17-08 07:47 PM
Response to Reply #22
23. Doesn't sound like they will do that.
They questioned both sides. Since there is precedent it worries me.

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4themind Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-17-08 05:05 PM
Response to Original message
9. "Say hello to nominee Clinton if the court decides the original primary stands." Why's that?
necessarily? Won't she pick up about 40 delegates if she wins? If obama is up by 170(according to real clear politics) then he'd still be ahead by 130 delegates (not including michigan). So while it could potentially dent his lead I don't think it means ipso facto that clinton will be the nominee, let's keep things in perspective. That said thank you very much for tireless efforts in keeping us informed on the situation!
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madfloridian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-17-08 05:13 PM
Response to Reply #9
12. I heard there may be more lawsuits to cloud the issue.
Could be just talk.

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Texas Hill Country Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-17-08 05:21 PM
Response to Original message
13. Rassmussen - Clinton Leads Polls Among Dems, Obama Ahead B/C Of Indys, Neg view of BO 50% now.
"Among Democrats, Clinton leads 48% to 42%, but Obama has a substantial lead among unaffiliated voters likely to participate in a Democratic Primary. "
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madfloridian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-17-08 05:42 PM
Response to Reply #13
15. We'll just have to see, won't we.
"First of all, the only path to victory for Clinton is via coup by super delegate.

She knows this. That's why there's all the talk about poaching pledged delegates and spinning uncertainty around Michigan and Florida, and laying the case for super delegates to discard the popular will and stage a coup.

Yet a coup by super delegate would sunder the party in civil war.

Clinton knows this, it's her only path to victory, and she doesn't care. She is willing -- nay, eager to split the party apart in her mad pursuit of power."

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/3/17/12417/1285/...

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madfloridian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-17-08 05:44 PM
Response to Original message
16. Oh, hell, just let the courts decide. They did so well in 2000.
Thanks, Victor. Thanks, Michael. Thanks to all Florida leaders for doing such an effective job of muddying the waters so there won't be a clear nominee.

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madfloridian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-17-08 05:49 PM
Response to Original message
17. Verdict not expected until next month.
Why in the world not? There is already a precedent. Anyone else getting nervous here?

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/17/attorney.dnc /

"The appellate court is not expected to deliver a decision until next month.

Steinberg, who is handling the case pro bono, said that if the ruling goes against Dimaio, he will appeal to the Supreme Court."
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tabasco Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-17-08 05:52 PM
Response to Original message
18. Most Democrats are smart enough too see Clinton's filthy smear campaign for what it is.
A despicable and rotten act of a coward.
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madfloridian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-17-08 06:03 PM
Response to Reply #18
19. But now there is a shadow if the verdict is not until next month.
It is going to get rougher, I think.
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Scurrilous Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-17-08 07:02 PM
Response to Original message
21. K & R
:thumbsup:
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