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Kerry's Rope-A-Dope Strategy Appears to Have Caught a Dope, $15 mil diff!

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Dems Will Win Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-26-04 05:35 PM
Original message
Kerry's Rope-A-Dope Strategy Appears to Have Caught a Dope, $15 mil diff!
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/week_2004_04_...

The plan is to take these punches from the Bush campaign and let Bush burn through a lot of his money. Hopefully, in the view of the Kerry campaign, Kerry comes through that without having suffered too much damage. Then Kerry fights back with hard-hitting ads through the late spring and summer with Bush having squandered his huge money advantage.

-snip-

There is, however, as Ryan points out, at least some reason to think the Kerry campaign may be on to something. If I recall correctly, the Bush campaign spent something on the order of $50 million in March alone -- most of it on ads -- and certainly tens of millions more through April. So Bush has burned through a ton of money while Kerry has been raising it at a blinding clip. Ryan notes the following ...

On March 1, Kerry had $2.4 million in the bank and Bush had $110 million. By the end of April, a rough educated guess, based on how both candidates are raising and spending money, would put Kerry's cash on hand at about $60 million and Bush's at about $75 million.
Now, there's been a lot of attention to Bush's bounce in the polls. But even so Republican-friendly a poll as the Fox News poll, which is the most recent national poll out, has Bush 43%, Kerry 42%. That's within the margin of error; and by most calculations an incumbent who barely pulls more than 40% is in serious trouble.

So there's certainly a way of looking at what's happened over the last month or so and say that Bush has essentially squandered his entire financial advantage over Kerry. And the race is still neck and neck.

-snip-

ROPE-A-DOPE! We should be only $15 million behind Bush by the end of April. And the Dem 527s have raised $57 mil in the first quarter.

Maybe Teresa could write a $20 million or $50 million check now that they're officially impugning Kerry's character, her exception to her no-spend rule.
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Larkspur Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-26-04 05:37 PM
Response to Original message
1. After the RNC convention, Bush's buddies will match what he
has already gotten this election cycle. After the convention, those that gave the max now can give another $2,000, so it won't take Bush long to recoup his losses and he will also take matching FEC funds.
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trumad Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-26-04 05:42 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. Uhhh Hummmmm
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RoyGBiv Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-26-04 05:42 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. FEC Funds

Bush has already declared he will not be participating in the matching funds program. I don't know if he can legally go back on that now, or if the rules allow him to alter this after the RNC.

In any case, if he does, he's going to be opening another avenue for an attack.

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Dems Will Win Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-26-04 05:46 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. The opting out of matching funds by both is just for the primaries
Edited on Mon Apr-26-04 05:48 PM by Dems Will Win
Both will get around $70 mil in matching funds for the GENERAL ELECTION from raising $70 million for the GENERAL. Both are predicted to raise about the same after the primary season.

What was not predicted is Kerry's Rope-A-Dope strategy and fundraising pulling him to within $15 mil of Bush/Cheney by May 1. The GOP financial advantage is gone and will now be matched OR EXCEEDED dollar for dollar by the Dems!!

(I've been a political consultant for 20 years so I know whereof I speak here)
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RoyGBiv Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-26-04 05:59 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. Thanks

Thanks for the clarification.

I didn't know quite how that worked, only that they'd opted out of it earlier.

Campaign finance law is such a maze.

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AndyTiedye Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-26-04 06:10 PM
Response to Reply #4
6. Can we give Kerry $2000 now and $2000 after the convention?
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Dems Will Win Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-26-04 07:20 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. Yup
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cally Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-27-04 08:59 AM
Response to Reply #6
24. No, not if he accepts federal funds
after the convention. If he doesn't, then you can give that. Most expect * and Kerry to accept federal funds.
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AndyTiedye Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-08-04 07:25 PM
Response to Reply #24
29. Conflicting Information
I got a yes and a no, or perhaps that was a maybe.
Can somebody provide a link to something fairly authoritative one way or the other?

Are the primary ant the general election considered separate,
with separate $2000 limits? Or is there even a limit for the primary?

Does he have to spend all the primary money before the convention?

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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-27-04 09:54 PM
Response to Reply #4
27. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
Arugula Latte Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-28-04 01:20 PM
Response to Reply #27
28. Welcome to DU jewishlib!
:hi: :toast:
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liarliartieonfire Donating Member (448 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-26-04 07:26 PM
Response to Original message
8. A Strategic Player
Our Senator Kerry.
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zbdent Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-26-04 07:29 PM
Response to Original message
9. Whatever happened to all those calls bye the RWers for free air
time for all the candidates?

Hmm, now that their boy is in there, Rush and CO. really are mute on this point that they wanted so badly in 2000.
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flpoljunkie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-26-04 07:50 PM
Response to Original message
10. Teresa can give no more to her husband than we can as citizens---$2,000
She has said, however, that she will use her own money, independent of the Kerry campaign, to defend her husband against attacks from the Rethug attack machine, if necessary.
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mzmolly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-26-04 08:01 PM
Response to Original message
11. Well I am enthused to know there is a *plan* in place.
I guess I'll wait and see ? ;)
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jpgray Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-26-04 08:01 PM
Response to Reply #11
12. I thought he was dead as dead could be in the primaries
And he sure surprised the crap out of me then, so who knows?
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mzmolly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-26-04 08:06 PM
Response to Reply #12
13. I simply dont know if *he* did anything that resulted in a win, or if the
Edited on Mon Apr-26-04 08:06 PM by mzmolly
media took down Dean and he benefited? :shrug:

I don't know what strategy paid off for him, do you?
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jpgray Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-26-04 08:12 PM
Response to Reply #13
14. No, and I don't think anyone can know how it happened
Edited on Mon Apr-26-04 08:13 PM by jpgray
There are too many factors involved in an election to blame or credit just one thing, so it's real hard to define what really put Kerry over the top. He does have a pretty good record of winning elections, and in the Weld race he came on real strong towards the final sprint. A presidential election is a whole other ball of wax, and it does make me nervous to watch a rope-a-dope strategy, if that is the strategy, because it won't be clear that it's incredible genius or massive folly until everything is over and done with. Right now it's mostly scary, and occasionally frustrating. :D

Now that he's demanding Bush prove his guard service, and is approaching parity with him in $$, we may see some more hard-hitting stuff from him. But like I said, my crystal ball isn't very effective, based on the primaries.
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mzmolly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-26-04 08:59 PM
Response to Reply #14
17. I agree with everything you said .
Specially this...

"Right now it's mostly scary, and occasionally frustrating."

Agreed! :scared: :hi:
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JI7 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-26-04 11:10 PM
Response to Reply #14
21. that's not all the campaign is about
it's not as if he isn't doing anything else. the fact is he has a lot less money than bush does. and he can either respond to every single attack with ads and then not have money left over as we get closer to the elections, or he can allow them to spend away and watch the polls to make sure he isn't losing too much support. and he is going around the country and campaigning. it's not as if he is sitting around doing nothing hoping bush will fail on his own.
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Dems Will Win Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-26-04 08:39 PM
Response to Reply #13
15. Dean Roped A Doped himself
Spent Way too much in Iowa and then had no money for anything after New Hampshire.

Remember? Bush might have been lured into the same trap by JK.
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mzmolly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-26-04 08:58 PM
Response to Reply #15
16. Interesting ....
;)
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JI7 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-26-04 11:06 PM
Response to Reply #13
20. Kerry did a lot during the primary, he campaigned hard
he even lost his voice by the day of the iowa caucuses. it's not all about dean. us kerry supporters were paying attention to him and what he was doing. some of the dean supporters kept posting polls of him doing bad and making fun of him. the media kept talking about him being down in the polls. but he kept on campaigning and going directly to the people and asking for their votes. dean even spend more money in iowa than kerry did.
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mobuto Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-26-04 10:12 PM
Response to Original message
18. Its not true
Edited on Mon Apr-26-04 10:12 PM by mobuto
While we're putting on the biggest grassroots campaign in history, the Republicans still have a huge fundraising advantage. By Convention time, he will have raised $250 million. And 2/3 of Bush's money comes from $2000 contributors.

We've done real well, but now's the time to push ahead, not rest on our laurels. Bush's had a bad month, we've had a great month, for sure, but that's nowhere near good enough.

www.democrats.org
http://contribute.johnkerry.com
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Hippo_Tron Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-26-04 10:34 PM
Response to Original message
19. Kerry's big advantage over the GOP is that unlike Bush, he can speak...
Kerry can defend himself with policy speeches and moveon.org ads. When Bush runs out of money it's over. As much free media as he has availible to him, he can't make use of it because whenver he makes a speech he lowers his ratings instead of improving them. Kerry will slam the hell out of Bush after he's spent all of his money and Bush will be defenseless. He'll be out raising money to catch up while he slips in the polls.
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ArkDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-27-04 09:18 AM
Response to Reply #19
25. A republican presidential candidate running out of money!
You are really on today! Hoo Boy!
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VOX Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-27-04 04:34 AM
Response to Original message
22. This presupposes that the GOP only has a finite amount of $$$ to spend...
And when they spend it, it's gone, and there's no more.

Unfortunately, their pockets (and their reach) are much broader than that. They will just keep bringing in the cash from all the big-money, cheap-labor conservatives who have it sweet with The Chimp in office.

But as long as Kerry can stay somewhat competetive with his own cash resources, he should be okay.

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Dems Will Win Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-27-04 09:32 AM
Response to Reply #22
26. It's fairly impossible without the Internet to raise more than a million a
Edited on Tue Apr-27-04 09:33 AM by Dems Will Win
day. That limits Bush who can't make money on the Internet (less than $6 mill so far total).

Even if you're the GOP, you still have to schedule and hold the fundraisers and even Bush and Cheney can't work that fast. Plus in CA, Bush's 2 nd biggest money state, he can now only half-fill the fund-raisers, cause so many Repubs hate him too.

THe DEms will soon be AHEAD of the Republicans!
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Paragon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-27-04 05:00 AM
Response to Original message
23. Hey, it's a boxing analogy - it MUST work.
:eyes:

Just like baseball analogies work for criminal sentencing.
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