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Obama could pick up many delegates if Hillary falls below viability in certain caucus states

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TAWS Donating Member (312 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 09:31 PM
Original message
Obama could pick up many delegates if Hillary falls below viability in certain caucus states
Hillary must be kicking herself for suggesting that the caucus delegates could switch hands because she is right but that path is a two way street. As shown in Iowa, if there are any delegate allocation differences, they will likely favor Obama because of his base's organization.

Obama could gain ALL the pledged delegates of a caucus state if he keeps Hillary's support below the required 15% to get delegates. This is possible for a few states where she is within range of falling below 15%.

These states include:

Hawaii (She got 24%, 6 delegates)
Idaho (She got 17%, 3 delegates)
Alaska (She got 25%, 4 delegates)

For example, if Hillary falls below 15% at the state convention in Idaho, he will gain all of the delegates for Idaho. This will be a net swing of +6 delegates, a major delegate gain. This looks unlikely for Hawaii and Alaska but it is possible if he actively tries to convince Hillary delegates to support him or if many Hillary delegates do not show up to vote at the state convention.
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polichick Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 09:33 PM
Response to Original message
1. Thanks for the info - what a crazy system!
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ProgressiveEconomist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-16-08 03:18 AM
Response to Reply #1
3. k&r
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Scurrilous Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 09:34 PM
Response to Original message
2. Good news!
:thumbsup:
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