Obama's Keys to the Keystone State

[Avalux]

David Plouffe, campaign manager for Barack Obama, recently shared his views about the upcoming April 22nd Pennsylvania Primary, calling the Clinton campaign "the prohibitive favorite," who "should win by a healthy margin given where they start….We’ll try and get as many votes and delegates as we can, but our campaign will not be defined by Pennsylvania …."

Translation: The Obama campaign marks its chances as slim to none in Pennsylvania—the state belongs to Clinton, and they aren’t going to seriously contest it.

The Obama campaign may want to rethink that hasty conclusion. Doing so may determine the remaining course of the nomination battle.

-snip -

Ironically Obama’s keys to victory were first fashioned by electoral locksmith and current Governor Ed Rendell, aka, chief Clinton surrogate in Pennsylvania, during his own 2002 primary fight for the governorship. That 2002 gubernatorial primary between then Mayor Ed Rendell of Philadelphia and then State Auditor General Bob Casey presents a blueprint for Obama running against Clinton. Obama’s prospective road to victory in Pennsylvania is remarkably similar to the route followed by Rendell in achieving a stunning win in 2002.

more.....

http://www.fandm.edu/x17958.xml

This is WELL worth the read!

[goclark]

1. Smart move ~

Lower expectations

[rug]

2. Rendell lost 57 of 67 counties but won the big ones. Sounds more like a national plan for Clinton.

[Avalux]

3. The plan doesn't work for Clinton in PA.

She can't beat Obama in those 10 counties; they're his demographic. Would be ironic if he beats her in PA by using the same strategy she's using for states.

[rug]

4. Lol, she's winning Pennsylvania in a landslide.

As to Obama's PA strategy, the Rendell comparison doesn't work. He was DA in Philadelphia for years, then Mayor and had built a large machine of his own. In no way was he ever an outsider or insurgent. Obama lacks those advantages by far in Pennsylvania.

As to the national picture, Clinton continues to win the big states. Bush won 31 of 50 states yet essentially lost both elections, if you credit the problems in Ohio.

[BumRushDaShow]

5. Neither Fast Eddie nor Mixmaster Mike

have any machine here in Philadelphia anymore. They BOTH know it. So chalk that one up, this city is not voting for Clinton. This city has the potential to deliver a huge excess of votes to Obama that can negate much of the rest of the state. That is how Santorum was booted out and how Kerry got PA in 2004 - from the very same counties that are currently in Obama's pocket.

[rug]

8. The state's too big to be negated and Philadelphia is competitive.

[Avalux]

6. Thanks for your point of view, but I'll go with Dr. G. Terry Madonna.

We'll just have to wait and see what happens.

[JimGinPA]

7. If The Polls Are Statewide, They're Going To Be Skewed...

Your "landslide" is going to be less than 10 points, tops.

[rug]

9. I'll take your word for it Jim.

[KittyWampus]

10. No, Hillary wins by 15%. Pledged delegates, I'm not sure.