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Zogby - McLame: 44%, Obama/Clinton: 39%, Nader: 5%

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NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 07:43 PM
Original message
Zogby - McLame: 44%, Obama/Clinton: 39%, Nader: 5%
http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1467

UTICA, New York Riding high after locking up his partys presidential nomination, Republican John McCain of Arizona has moved ahead of both of his potential Democratic Party rivals in a national general election test, the latest Zogby telephone survey shows.

Perhaps profiting from the continuing political battle across the aisle, McCain would defeat Hillary Clinton of New York by six points and Barack Obama of Illinois by 5 points, the survey shows. Clinton and Obama are locked in a tight battle to win the Democratic Party nomination, a fight that has grown nasty at times recently and threatens to continue on all summer long until the partys national convention in Denver this August.

The telephone survey of 1,001 likely voters nationwide was conducted by live operators calling from Zogbys call center in Upstate New York on March 13-14, 2008. It carries a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points.


You know, I don't think that Nader has any chance to get 5% of the voter. But I think due to our party's constant bickering and in-fighting, some voters will begin to feel disenfranchised and we are beginning to make Nader more of a factor in this year's election. I think he could come close to 2000 level support.
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depakid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 07:47 PM
Response to Original message
1. "our party's constant bickering"
Edited on Sat Mar-15-08 07:48 PM by depakid
Not that I give Zogby's poll an ounce of credibility, but considering the performance of Congress these past 15 months (actually- the Dem "leadership" in Congress for the past 15 years) it wouldn't surprise me that people would register their disgust in the form of a 3rd party vote (or in an opinion about who they'd rather vote for).
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NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 07:49 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. Exactly.
I don't think 2% is out of the question for Nader. And that type of support for him will give us real problems in the general election.

Zogby isn't the most reliable poster, but I do think Nader's support is growing.
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LoZoccolo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 07:48 PM
Response to Original message
2. We need to constantly fight Nader, but don't despair about the 5% figure.
It was 6% at some point in 2004, and he ended up with much less come the general election.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...
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rocktivity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 07:51 PM
Response to Original message
4. The GOP has its nominee, the Dems do not
Get thee behind me, polls! UNCLEAN! UNCLEAN!!!!



x(
rocknation
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TheCowsCameHome Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 07:52 PM
Response to Original message
5. 5%? Wow.
Are there really that many out on day passes?
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WCGreen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 08:31 PM
Response to Reply #5
21. He's not even going to get on the ballot in many states...
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UALRBSofL Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 07:54 PM
Response to Original message
6. I don't trust these numbers at all
I would say Nader would get 0.5% at best. Isn't that what he got in 04? If anything his number would drop from 04.
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NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 07:57 PM
Response to Reply #6
10. It will definitely go down.
But I think he could get closer to his 2000 numbers this year, especially given the infighting we are having within the party.

In 2000, he got 2.5% of the vote nationally.
In 2004, he got 0.4% of the vote nationally.

I think this year he could get 1.5% or 2%.
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joeybee12 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 07:54 PM
Response to Original message
7. zogby is always wrong
no way nader gets 5%
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NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 07:58 PM
Response to Reply #7
11. He won't get 5%, but he could get 2%
at that will have a real effect on the election.
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joeybee12 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 08:17 PM
Response to Reply #11
16. I don't even see that this year...
...Nader is old news...only people who wouldn't vote otherwise will vote for him. I expect his 5% to go down very soon.
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Thepricebreaker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 10:13 PM
Response to Reply #16
33. I do with all the dems fighting with one another.. the republicans are now behind McCain
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Auntie Bush Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 07:55 PM
Response to Original message
8. Without Nader it would probably be 44 to 44. Damn his hide!
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adoraz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 07:57 PM
Response to Original message
9. Is that idiot Nader really running again this year?
Was that a rumor or is it true?
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OmahaBlueDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 08:01 PM
Response to Original message
12. Even if the numbers are to be believed
Edited on Sat Mar-15-08 08:03 PM by OmahaBlueDog
we are a long, long way away from November....a lot can (and will) happen.

I think no matter whom we nominate (even if we go with a unity ticket) we will have an uphill battle because mainstream America still has to get comfy with the woman/African American President concept.

McCain, OTOH, is likely to have to defend GOP economic policy against the backdrop of economic meltdown. He will have to defend continuation of a wildly unpopular war, he will have to appease the radical elements of his own party, and (most importantly) he has to get people excited about voting for him. I see maybe 1 of those 4 taking place, and it's not "getting folks excited.'
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TexasBushwhacker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 08:07 PM
Response to Reply #12
14. Nader will have a hard time getting on many state's ballots
In 2000, he was the Green Party's candidate. In 2004, he ran as an independent. There aren't many voters who vote for 3rd party candidates, and there are even fewer who will write someone in. The thing is, if Clinton and Obama continue to attack each other instead of McCain .... geez, I don't want to think about it.
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OmahaBlueDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 08:34 PM
Response to Reply #14
24. Whoever wins our nomination will ...
battle tested, thoroughly vetted, organized, and ready for damn near anything the dirty tricksters can dish.

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earthlover Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 08:06 PM
Response to Original message
13. I think the visciousness of the Dem campaign is hurting both Obama and Hillary
I would not be at all surprised to see McCain's lead gradually increase as the Dem fight continues. By Denver Time, it may be even larger just in time for a divided convention. I guess that is the scenario of a hillary "win".
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DuaneBidoux Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 08:14 PM
Response to Original message
15. 5% Nader?! But then when was the last time Zogby called one right?
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papau Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 08:20 PM
Response to Original message
17. I'm curious as to how McCain/Romney polls against Clinton/Obama and Obama/Clinton
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mdmc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 08:20 PM
Response to Original message
18. dems answer "Nader" in hopes that the triangulators will be more
progressive
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AndyTiedye Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 11:54 PM
Response to Reply #18
39. And Instead They Write off the Progressive Vote and Move Even Further to the Right


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mdmc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-16-08 11:04 AM
Response to Reply #39
41. .. we continue to lose
and never learn
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Nitrogenica Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 08:28 PM
Response to Original message
19. ANd this will encourage those on the rabid right to be crazier than ever.
Very very nice.

There's a long way to November.

So now can we start talking about issues that matter?

That's what the people want.
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JVS Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 08:30 PM
Response to Original message
20. LOL!
Nader strikes again!
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Divine Discontent Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 08:31 PM
Response to Original message
22. I fully blame Hillary Clinton - she is by no means as humble & graceful as John Edwards EOM
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Muttocracy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 08:33 PM
Response to Original message
23. problem is knowing the state-by-state effect
Since we're still stuck with the electoral college, national polls get less and less useful. Nader's support might be coming in states where the Dem % is still > Repub. % even with Nader pulling some votes away (e.g., 48% Dem, 45% Repub, 7% Nader)

I also think some of those are novelty responses who couldn't even explain who Nader is.
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OmahaBlueDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 08:36 PM
Response to Reply #23
25. You're exactly right
"National polls" are meaningless -- ask Gore & Kerry (chicanery notwithstanding)

In a perfect works, you need all polls for all states. As a practical matter, you want the 13 or so swing states that usually decide this thing.
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Muttocracy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 08:46 PM
Response to Reply #25
27. Nader's support last time was in NY, CA, MA, MN, IL, etc. nt
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Divine Discontent Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 08:50 PM
Response to Reply #23
28. good point, it may be inconsequential support
and btw, Edwards won every debate.... once Biden left. ;)
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Muttocracy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 09:43 PM
Response to Reply #28
29. and once Edwards left...
poof - what issues?

Foreign policy expertise is my main hangup, thus liked Biden, Dodd, Richardson the best. Also wish Edwards had more experience doing the progressive stuff he talks about. Hope he finds a way in or working with the next admin. to make it happen, and glad he has some delegates to work with.

Biden and Edwards both suffered from lack of media coverage - in Edwards' case, even after he finished 2nd in Iowa!!, so I have a ton of sympathy for Edwards supporters.
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Divine Discontent Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 11:43 PM
Response to Reply #29
38. true...
you know how you'd feel if Biden finished 2nd in Iowa and they ignored him. John shone brightly in those debates, then suspended his campaign, sadly.

A great point is what you said to start with -

"once Edwards left... poof - what issues?"

the lack of attention on issues, and instead on scandal and slime is amazing. I would like John, Joe, and Bill R. to jump in and demand the focus on the issues be the focus and call out the press for giving too much time to scandal baloney.
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loveangelc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 08:37 PM
Response to Original message
26. zogby sucks.
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Oilwellian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 10:06 PM
Response to Original message
30. Hillary 2012 must be pleased n/t
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AndyTiedye Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 10:12 PM
Response to Original message
31. In 2000 and 2004, We Were Way Ahead at This Point
and relentless Swift-boating by the mighty slime machine made it close enough to steal each time.

This time we are starting out behind. This Is Not Good. This Is Not Good At All.

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Thepricebreaker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 10:13 PM
Response to Reply #31
32. Dukakis was 17 points ahead of Ronald Reagan - take nothing for granted. n/t
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LisaL Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 10:15 PM
Response to Reply #31
34. Well, dah.
And this time, those 527 commercials are practically writing themselves.
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high density Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 10:19 PM
Response to Original message
35. Zogby is a total joke
Edited on Sat Mar-15-08 10:19 PM by high density
I'd actually like to see posts about his polls banned from this site. His primary forecasts have been atrocious, as were his 2004 results.
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New Dawn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 10:24 PM
Response to Original message
36. Obama should offer Ralph Nader a cabinet position.
That is how you make a real political coalition. If Nader's voters are so important, then offer him a cabinet position!
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Doctor_J Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 10:26 PM
Response to Original message
37. This is nonsense. They are just setting us up to swallow another election theft
Even the Cabal News GOPropaganda machine won't be able to stop Obama from getting >55% against Bush III - aka McSame.
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OPERATIONMINDCRIME Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-16-08 12:14 AM
Response to Original message
40. Weird Thing Is, Is That From Polls I've Seen We Still Win The Electoral College, Which Is
what matters.

We get so fixated here on the straight percentages sometimes, but we forget what really matters. The Rasmussen one, though having us losing to mccain with straight %'s, still has us winning the electoral college. Just wanted to share that, in case people forget what matters.
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Kahuna Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-16-08 11:24 AM
Response to Original message
42. McCain: Thanks Hillary! I couldn't do it without you. nt
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