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Very slight Obama drop in new Gallup tracking poll, leads 49-46

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thesubstanceofdreams Donating Member (625 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 05:30 PM
Original message
Very slight Obama drop in new Gallup tracking poll, leads 49-46
Edited on Sat Mar-15-08 05:30 PM by thesubstanceofdreams
No "nosediving" here. Obama will take a short-term drop for sure, but it won't be nearly as bad as the gloating Hillary supporters believe.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/104968/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Ma...
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tekisui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 05:31 PM
Response to Original message
1. He's got 5+ weeks to recover, and 7 months to make it "old news".
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Neshanic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 05:34 PM
Response to Reply #1
4. "old news" like digging up Vietnam on the last candidate we had old?
Yes, that one was so off the radar. Those republicans never learn. They just keep using those useless things from the past. How they win elections is a mystery!
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tabasco Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 05:42 PM
Response to Reply #4
9. What are they going to dig up on Hillary?
Why is Hillary hiding these records from Democratic voters?

- Tax returns
- Senate earmark requests
- Library donor list
- First Lady records

She is deliberately hiding these records from Democratic voters. She LIED to the American people when she said she "hadn't had time" to get those records to the public. If she becomes the nominee, republicans will rake her over the coals if she tries to keep the records secret, and rightly so. Once Hillary does disclose the records, it's all over. McCain will get elected.


WAKE UP!
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tekisui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 05:49 PM
Response to Reply #4
11. And, when they do, Obama will squash it again, quickly.
Unlike Kerry. Obama has learned from the previous Nominee's mistakes.
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Rageneau Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 11:46 PM
Response to Reply #1
14. Old news like Hillary's IWR vote?
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Cooley Hurd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 05:32 PM
Response to Original message
2. Oh Crap! The Wright smear didn't work!
Back to the drawing board... :D
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BeatleBoot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 05:33 PM
Response to Original message
3. Not so says Rasmussen...
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thesubstanceofdreams Donating Member (625 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 05:36 PM
Response to Reply #3
6. That's based on a small one day sample with huge MoE

If Gallup was showing the same, it would be better evidence. But Gallup shows Obama doing only a bit worse than yesterday and better than two days ago.

Obama will take a short-term hit in the polls, no doubt, but this "free fall", "nose-diving" talk is NOT based on fact but wishful thinking.
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BeatleBoot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-16-08 09:42 PM
Response to Reply #6
15. 17 point drop in 24 hours

sorry charlie.


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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 05:34 PM
Response to Original message
5. Actually, Gallup confirms Rasmussen, saying Friday was a bad night for Obama
Edited on Sat Mar-15-08 05:36 PM by Kurt_and_Hunter
These are tracking polls that are averaged over several days, and include days that represented Obama's best totals ever. (His highest polling average total was yesterday)

The averaged total of several days cannot nose-dive in one day.

The Friday polling subset in the average, however, was bad for Obama in Gallup and Rasmussen both.

Gallup: "Clinton fared better in Friday night interviewing than in prior days."
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thesubstanceofdreams Donating Member (625 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 05:38 PM
Response to Reply #5
7. Yes, but the question is how much better

In the Gallup poll, Obama is doing slightly better now than two and three days ago, so he can't have done so badly on Friday night. In the Rasmussen poll, the difference is huge. In any case, one-night samples are very small and prone to statistical noise, especially the Rasmussen one which I believe is smaller.
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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 05:47 PM
Response to Reply #7
10. I believe Gallup is a 4 day average and rasmussen is 3 day
Edited on Sat Mar-15-08 05:48 PM by Kurt_and_Hunter
or 4 day vs. 5 day???

Either way, Rasmussen is a day less, and thus jumpier.

Anyway, we'll know by Sunday.
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jezebel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 05:53 PM
Response to Reply #5
12. No, Clinton did either 48 or 49 last night with Gallup. Obama did either 48 or 49 also. You can
figure out the numbers yourself. Gallup is a 3 day track. Rasmussen is a 4.
Obama did badly in Rasmussen's Friday night (either 39 or 40) but did just fine in Gallup's Fri. sample (either 48 or 49). Clinton fared better than SHE had been faring in Gallup's Fri night sample (she ALSO got either 48 or 49)but not better than Obama (at least with Gallup).
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Upton Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 05:40 PM
Response to Original message
8. Lets see how it is for the next week
could be this isn't as big a deal as many think. Either way, it's better it comes out now than later.
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johnnydrama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 06:24 PM
Response to Original message
13. i doubt
any of these were taking post 8 pm, so the next one will be indicitave, because it'll be after Obama was all over the news.
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