Obama Nosedives in Presidential Tracking Poll

[BeatleBoot]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics...

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

Saturday, March 15, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton essentially even in the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. It’s Obama 46% Clinton 45% (see recent daily results). This reflects an unusually sharp change from yesterday’s results when Obama led by eight points and reached the 50% level of support for the first time. Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. Last night’s results were very favorable for Clinton and it remains to be seen whether this marks a lasting change in the race or is merely statistical noise. Single night results are based upon very small samples and are more volatile than the overall tracking poll.

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[scheming daemons]

1. Alternate headline: Despite Wright Firestorm, Obama Still Leads Clinton

...

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

32. On The One Day Sample, He Was Crushed By Her.

On a 4 day tracking poll and with only one day in which the story counted, the way those numbers dropped would seem to suggest a polling result of 50% Hillary to 35% or so Obama, which is a crushing loss.

I hope you understand what those numbers truly mean.

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

112. Rasmussen Poll says Clinton Helping McCain to Lead OVER Dems

Clinton’s challenges to Obama may be helping McCain

Looking to November, John McCain now holds a slight lead over both Democrats in the General Election. It’s McCain 47% Obama 42% and McCain 46% Clinton 42% (see recent daily results). It appears that Clinton’s challenges to Obama may be helping McCain at least in the short-term. McCain’s polling numbers against Obama began improving during the run-up to the hard-fought Democratic Primaries in Ohio and Texas. Obama has a three-percentage point edge over McCain among unaffiliated voters but is currently supported by just 65% of Democrats. By way of comparison, McCain earns the vote from 80% of Republicans.

I guess Hillary sharing consultant firm with McCain is working out well.

[anonymous171]

2. If Obama survives this, he is vetted and should get the nom.

[MNDemNY]

6. No, it is the GE were this will hurt him most.

If he is the nominee, hello Pres. McCain. Thanks obamanation.

[anonymous171]

10. If they grind this into the dust they can't use it in the GE.

Swiftboating worked on Kerry because he didn't confront it until it was too late. As we have seen with Obama's rapid response to these most recent attacks, he WILL respon with haste to any attacks leveled at him.

[MNDemNY]

27. That is just, well, a stupid statement. They will use it, and it will work.

[anonymous171]

28. Oh wise one, I think your crystal ball needs to be cleaned.

[MNDemNY]

29. Okie-Dokie. What ever floats your boat.

[Milo_Bloom]

30. Let's hope they do!

Turning to the subject to the idiotic religious nut jobs on either side works well for Obama.

[MNDemNY]

31. You bet! God Damn America ! is a great slogan.

[Milo_Bloom]

39. Just as is blaming Katrina on the God's wrath against N.O.

Let the battle of the religious nut jobs commence!

[Warren DeMontague]

161. And if Obama had actually said that, it might be relevant.

However, at some point, people are going to say "er, I'm not voting for his PREACHER, am I?"

And how many Republicans have played kissy-face with Pat "The Supreme Court is more dangerous than Al Qaeda" Robertson and Jerry "feminists caused 9-11" Falwell?

[laugle]

165. The problem is how do you

defend the indefensable? Kerry's story was true, the swiftboater's lied!

[liberal1973]

14. ?

Barack is going to be the nominee. He will also win the GE. Are you going to support Barack as President of U.S?

[liberal1973]

15. lol

Barack is going to be the nominee. He will also win the GE. Are you going to support Barack as President of U.S?

[MNDemNY]

26. Nap time. Your naivete is showing.

Your total lack of how this WILL play out in the GE is evidence of your blind support for Obama. Watch as this plays out, this is a potentially fatal issue in the GE if Obama gets the nod. And in answer to your lane question, my avatar speaks volumes. I can assure you it is heartfelt. As it has my entire adult life. So continue backing this man, and say hello to President McCain.

[tabasco]

90. Where are Hillary's records?

Still waiting!

WHY IS HILLARY HIDING HER RECORDS FROM DEMOCRATIC VOTERS?

- Tax records
- Senate earmark requests
- First Lady records
- Library donor records

You think there is nothing to be used against Hillary?

Hillary won't even show this stuff to Democratic voters. She will be forced to disclose her dirty laundry if she is the nominee of the republicans will rake her over the coals, and rightly so!

WAKE UP!

[rodeodance]

111. HAVEN'T you found them yet? tsk tsk

[tabasco]

120. Hillary knows where they are.

You think the republicans will give her a pass on this?

You are blind.

[Auntie Bush]

138. Nothing like changing the subject! When you can't defend your man...attack a woman.

Typical Rethug tactic...you learned well! Blame the Clintons...attack them instead of defending your man. Nice!

[guruant]

8. I agree with this...

This is the first true test to the depth of his support. I just hope that this pastor isn't the reason that his shots at becoming the president are wiped-out.

Let's hope for the best...

[Ronnie]

11. "If Obama survives this..."

I will believe that he is as magic as his supporters keep saying.

[Hepburn]

18. He has already survived this....Hillary's dirty campaigning did not work.

...(the Loving Spoonfuls in the background and all of us Obama supporters welcoming you aboard...)

Do you believe in magic....

[rodeodance]

110. Bo is responsible for his own behavior/associations. No one else made him assic. with Wright.

[BeatleBoot]

13. Wait until Rove gets a hold of his candidacy..

They turned a War Hero into a Traitor in 2004.

And Obama gives them much more material to work with.

[anonymous171]

16. Kerry never responded to those attacks. Obama will and has already.

[BeatleBoot]

21. By doing what? Renouncing his pastor ?

You are going to see Rev Wright and Louis Farrakhan traveling to an enemy state in the 80's - to Libya to meet with Muumar Qaddafi 24-7 from Oct 15th until the election.

I am sorry, but I must disagree with you.

This thing was over before it started.

And what truly bothers me is that I am not certain whether some folks on DU really understand the ramifications of the Louis Farrakhan connection.

[anonymous171]

23. He already renounced both of them. So yeah, it is a non-issue.

[BeatleBoot]

24. Okeee-dokeee.

Actually, I hope you're right.

But I am not so naive to think so.

[Bake]

78. Did you even see his interviews last night?

He refused to renounce (i.e., throw under the bus) Rev. Wright. He disavowed the statements but not the man.

Bake

[BeatleBoot]

22. Self Delete Double Post

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

20. Good way to look at it.

[laugle]

164. Don't forget about

Rezco. I watched McLaughlin on PBS last week; they said investigations are under way in Chicago, to find out more about Obama's connections.......

[SoFlaJet]

3. Does anybody happen to know the new

Rasmussen numbers I mean I must have forgotten what they were I only have read it 75 times this morning into the afternoon....anybody? Lil' help here please....

[Nitrogenica]

4. Wow that's great that Democrats can team up with FOX news and

bring down one of our own!

WAY TO GO!!!!!

What next?

[Bake]

79. Geez, dude, Obama did it to himself.

We're just talking about it on a Democratic forum.

Bake

[Skidmore]

5. Well, this is about the sixth or seventh time I've seen this info posted.

Are you guys on rotation?

[Nedsdag]

7. Stop gloating please.

Your anti-Obama scribes are making me dislike the Beatles.

[parasim]

9. Going from 50% to 46% is considered a nosedive?

Okaaay...

[Texas Hill Country]

12. 4 day average... he went from 50 to 35 in a day... that is a nose dive.

[Milo_Bloom]

38. Actually you have no clue what he went to from where...

To come up with your number, you have to assume that he was consitently hitting the same number to make up previous totals, but the article is carefull to point out that single day results often swing wildly, because of a very small sample size.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

42. It Is More Volatile, For Sure. But In Order For Those Numbers To Be 46-45 Today, It Had To Be About

50% for Hillary to 35% for Obama yesterday. It isn't the solid statistic in the world due to the sample size, but when looking at it for what it is, it's still a huge drop and he was crushed by her. We'll have to see what the next days bring.

[Milo_Bloom]

44. Nope.

You need to know the exact starting point, which you don't, to surmize ANYTHING about those numbers.

Also, if you look at the history of the poll, you find it is a perfectly normal transition of their polling... it follows in 2 week cycles.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

47. You Can Look At The Numbers And Make Quite An Accurate Determination.

It is likely that two nights ago, Obama landed 51 or 52%. He would had to have, in order for it to have been at 50% in yesterday's tracking. Now, today, we see the drop over the 4 day range. Based on what the first 3 of 4 days would've been, the only way for his numbers to be where they are is if he got about 35% last night to about 50% of Hillary. That's quite easy to deduce in fact. So within 24 hours, albeit in a volatile sampling, he still went from 51 or 52% down to 35 or 36%. That's a huge fucking nosedive for the first 24 hours of this story pal, no matter how ya wanna run and hide from the truth.

[Milo_Bloom]

51. Not even close.

It must be nice to go through life being able to make stuff up and believe it...

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

52. Those Are Facts. It's Not Up For Your Approval. Facts Don't Need Your Approval. Get Over It.

That's what it is. He took an approximate 17 point hit yesterday on the first day alone. That's a fact. The numbers show it quite readily. Just because you deny it, refuse to accept it, choose to keep yourself ignorant from it, doesn't make it any less true. In fact, all it does is make you look monumentally silly.

[Milo_Bloom]

55. Not I know the mind crime

It is when someone makes up numbers and reports them as facts


That's a good operation you got going there... Keeps us all entertained.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

58. The Numbers Are Right In The Poll For All To See. You Don't Want To Accept It. Boo Hoo For You.

Simple math. It's quite simple math.

I'll tell ya what, since you want to have such a big mouth and all. How bout you show us a REALISTIC scenario in which my numbers AREN'T true. Can you do that? Can you put your money where your mouth is?

Those numbers are facts, any way you look at it. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news.

[Milo_Bloom]

60. Yes, exactly the numbers are facts

But ASSuming numbers you don't know, makes your statement oh so silly.


Keep on keeping on!!

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

62. You Look Like A Fool. There's A Public Challenge Offered To You, Are You Up For It, Or Are You Just

going to continue to make yourself look like a simplistic fool?

Those numbers are facts. PROVE ME WRONG.

[Milo_Bloom]

65. X+Y = 100

WHat is X
What is Y

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

66. PROVE ME WRONG. Public Challenge Has Been Offered. Will You Continue To Play The Fool, Or Will You

back yourself up?

Show a realistic scenario in which my numbers wouldn't be true. Just one. Go for it.

Ready, set, GO!!!!!!!

[Milo_Bloom]

67. Just did!

LMAO!

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

70. You Did Nothing But Post Some Meaningless Equation. PROVE ME WRONG.

Not sure why you are making these deluded claims of having done anything, since you did absolutely nothing.

You say my numbers are inaccurate. I say they're FACT. If you want to show they're NOT fact, then you have to show how.

Show a realistic scenario in which Obama didn't go from 51-52% two nights ago down to 35-36% last night. Show just ONE legitimate, credible scenario as to how last night's numbers would've been significantly different from that.

See, those are facts. You can spout your naive ignorance and denials all you want, but they're still facts and everyone knows it. If you want to show that not to be true, then you're going to have to show it with numbers. Show a credible scenario in which last night's poll numbers would've been significantly different. Will you do so? Will you continue to respond with nothing more than your head in the sand denials? Time will tell I guess. So let's see what you've got!

Ready, set, GO!!!!!!!

[Milo_Bloom]

76. LMAO!

What is X?

What is Y?

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

91. Psssssst........ What The Fuck Are You Talking About. PROVE ME WRONG.

I say the polls showed 50% Hillary, 35-36% Obama, 14-15% Undecided. My numbers are that Obama went from about 51-52% the night before, down to 35-36% last night. Those are my numbers. I say they're fact.

Tell me, what are YOUR fucking numbers? Other than posting stupid equations that signify NOTHING, can you actually respond to the context? Can you provide substance of your own? Can you show any legitimate scenario whatsoever in which my numbers would be significantly different? Well? Can you?

You've got nothing. You've got nothing but denial and stupidity. You can bring nothing to the table, and are making a fool out of yourself by arguing against the factual numbers. The news hurts you so much that you have buried your head in the sand and can't even begin to accept them, which makes you look extremely weak. It makes you look even weaker because there's no reason for you to have such an in denial reaction to these numbers, since it's just one night in a volatile sample and he can easily rebound in the next few days.

But in spite of that, last night was still last night, and he took an approximate 17 point nose dive. THAT'S A FACT.

If you want to argue against it, THEN PROVE ME WRONG.

Got it? Do you get what I'm telling you? Do you see how you're failing here? You've got my numbers, so what are yours? Put your money where your mouth is pal.

Ready, set, GO!!!!!!!

[Milo_Bloom]

97. Done.

I can prove it was only a 2 point drop. Want proof... here:


4 Day Total Obama % Single Date
184 48 14-Mar
200 50 13-Mar
192 43 12-Mar
188 43 11-Mar
192 64 10-Mar
184 42 9-Mar
180 39 8-Mar
180 47 7-Mar
172 56 6-Mar
172 38 5-Mar
39 4-Mar
39 3-Mar
56 2-Mar

But you know what... it isn't proof.. you know why... I pulled the numbers out the exact same place people have been pulling theirs... THIN AIR... However, they work as well as the others.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

99. I Said Legitimate. Not Insanely Laughable. 64%??? ROFLMAO!!!!!!!!

Oh god you're so done. That was the best you could do? For real?



You're so friggin done. See ya!

[Milo_Bloom]

101. It proved you wrong.

That was all that was necessary.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

103. No It Didn't. Do You Not Know How To Read?

I said a legitimate example. It needed to be legitimate for a reason. Yours, is highly insane, not credible, and highly laughable. If that's your benchmark for proof, then you're really quite out of your mind.

Do you think ANYONE here is going to lend credibility to your numbers showing he had 64% on the 10 and plummeted 21 points to 43 on the 11th?

God you're out of your mind.

I'm done here. See ya!

[Milo_Bloom]

107. You were done the moment you started making up numbers...

Thanks for allowing me to prove you wrong.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

117. You Proved Nothing. In Fact, You Created An Impossible Situation. Hey, Can You Now Match Those To

how Hillary's would've had to have fallen out during that time? I'd LOVE to see you put both together ROFLMAO!!!

C'mon... Let's see how hilarious THIS one will look!

Ready, set, GO!!!!!!

[Milo_Bloom]

119. I answered your question... now answer mine.

What is X?

What is Y?

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

122. You Answered Nothing. Is There Only One Candidate? C'mon, Match Them Up!!! ROFLMAO

Hey, and let's not forget that your 64% to 43% drop in 24 hours for NO REASON already makes your data set look like the product of someone who's lost their goddamn mind, that no one would find credible, and failed the original RULES which dictated your results had to actually, like, ya know, be BELIEVABLE.

You're a joke. You've failed here miserably. You look like moron.

[Milo_Bloom]

129. When you make it up as you go along...

You get to make it up as you go along...


It's called playing the mind crime way.


It's 200 degrees outside... I can prove it by holding my lighter under the thermometer and taking a picture...


YAY!!!!

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

133. That's All You've Got Left Now Huh? LMAO. You Lose. You're Done. See Ya.

What a fool...

[Milo_Bloom]

135. I've heard that whine before, but you are still here.

And then you got smacked around some more by making me show how Clinton lost the day yesterday.

[Bake]

81. LA LA LA They're not listening!!

Don't bring 'em no bad news, OMC!!

Bake

[Milo_Bloom]

82. News would suggest actual facts.

Made up numbers based on assumptions are not facts.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

93. God You're Ignorant. Wake Up To The Facts Pal.

[Milo_Bloom]

96. I can prove it was only a 2 point swing!

here:


4 Day Total Obama % Single Date
184 48 14-Mar
200 50 13-Mar
192 43 12-Mar
188 43 11-Mar
192 64 10-Mar
184 42 9-Mar
180 39 8-Mar
180 47 7-Mar
172 56 6-Mar
172 38 5-Mar
39 4-Mar
39 3-Mar
56 2-Mar

But you know what... it isn't proof.. you know why... I pulled the numbers out the exact same place you tried THIN AIR...


Welcome to the land of assumptions... it works great when you control the data without knowing anything.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

102. Again, I Said LEGITIMATE. I Said That For A Reason. Your Example Is INSANE.

You think he had 64% on the 10th, then PLUMMETED to 43% on the 11th, just for no reason whatsoever??? Do you have ANY idea how insane you look?

Look, you're done. You've got nothing. He took a 17 point nosedive last night. Deal with it. That's reality.

Bye now!

[Milo_Bloom]

104. Perfectly legitimate.

When you get to make up the numbers... you get to make up the numbers.


Playing by the mind crime rules... just make it up as you go along and don't worry about reality.


Good luck with that.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

116. LMAO!!! Ok, You Want Me To REALLLLLLY Make Ya Look Stupid? Take Your Example And Make It Work With

Hillary...

See, there are two candidates in this race and two statistics to go by. There are two rolling averages to go by. In order to have your one result set, you have to have one that works with the other candidate. Oh, this oughta be GOOD!

Ready, set, GO!!!!!!!

[Milo_Bloom]

118. LMAO... The liar returns

Thought you were done, little one.

What's the matter... couldn't stay away?

All red in the face??

LMAO!

Do you reeeaaally want to go there again?

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

121. C'mon You Silly Little Goose. Match Them Up!

What a joke you are.

[Milo_Bloom]

127. What's funny, Clinton actually LOST in yesterday's totals.

When you get to make up numbers... LMAO!!!

I can make her win if you want, but having her lose was much more fun.


4 Day Total Clinton % Single Date
180 44 14-Mar
168 38 13-Mar
164 46 12-Mar
168 52 11-Mar
164 32 10-Mar
176 34 9-Mar
188 50 8-Mar
184 48 7-Mar
196 44 6-Mar
192 46 5-Mar
46 4-Mar
60 3-Mar
40 2-Mar


I would feel sorry for you, if you didn't walk into it so easily.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

137. LMAO!!! Hey, Wouldn't The People Polled Number Have To Be Equal In Both?

Oh, and now Hillary went from 32 up to a whopping 52 within 24 hours for NO REASON WHATSOEVER!!!

Oh, that's so believable!!

And hey, wouldn't the number on the left have to be equal for each, if it was all the same data set?

[Milo_Bloom]

139. Oh, I get it, you don't understand the number on the left...

That isn't the "number of people polled"

That is the aggregate of 4 days % to prove it equals.


So, no, the number on the left wouldn't be the same, since it relates ONLY to their own %

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

140. Ahhh, Gotcha. But Still, Thanks For All The Laughs!!

20-21% 24 hour swings for no reason whatsoever.



Fool.

[Milo_Bloom]

141. Small data samples do this a lot.

That is why they don't give the 1 day numbers.

Since my point the whole time has been that you are ASSuming a static data set... thanks for proving my point.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

142. Show Me Any One Day Raw Sample Where EITHER Candidate Would Either Lose Or Gain 21% For NO REASON.

You have made an ass of yourself here. You lose. Period.

You were asked to provide something CREDIBLE. The fact is, you didn't. You failed. You couldn't do it. You've wasted both of our time. Until you can up with something that ANY DU'er would actually believe for a second, you can consider yourself having failed miserably.

[Milo_Bloom]

144. *SIGH*

The reason would be who is called on one particular day.

Neither of us know their raw data and how many people are represented over 4 days. Unless you have actual access to the raw data, anything that comes out of your mouth is pure speculation and made up.

As we have seen two nearby states with seemingly identical concerns can have two radically different results. (See R.I. and VT)

The reason they use a 4 day rolling sample, instead of reporting single day results, is to account for EXACTLY those types of swings and even them out.

[Bill McBlueState]

114. confused

You're confusing facts, which are in short supply around here, with your opinion about what is most likely.

[cloudythescribbler]

87. are you assuming that the polls from TODAY are weighted equally with those of four days ago????

That I doubt.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

94. What Are You Talking About?

[Milo_Bloom]

100. Here is what he is assuming...

That each and every previous day was a fairly static result.

However, the article calls very specific attention to the fact that single day results OFTEN swing wildly.

Without access to the ACTUAL RAW DATA, all anyone can do is make up numbers that work and use them.

However, when you are in control of the data, you can do amazing things... such as PROVE it was only a 2 point drop in the daily poll




4 Day Total Obama % Single Date
184 48 14-Mar
200 50 13-Mar
192 43 12-Mar
188 43 11-Mar
192 64 10-Mar
184 42 9-Mar
180 39 8-Mar
180 47 7-Mar
172 56 6-Mar
172 38 5-Mar
39 4-Mar
39 3-Mar
56 2-Mar


The key here is I made up a wild swing for Obama on March 10th, which when averaged in with other numbers, makes everything work... I could probably put together a scenario in which Obama actually did BETTER on March 14th than March 13th, but still dropped in the ranks...you just need the statistical abberation to happen at a different time.


The reality is, unless you have direct access to the raw data, people are just making it up as they go along.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

108. The Reality Is, Your Example Is Delusional And You Are In Blunt Denial Of Reality.

Seriously, get a grip. Your denial makes you look quite silly.

Have a good one!

(64 to 43 ROFLMAO! I still can't get over that!!!!!)

[Milo_Bloom]

109. What denial... unlike you, I freely am admitting I am making it up...

You are trying to cling to some claim of proof without any actual raw data.

aka... you are making it up.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

123. I Told You To Present A Credible Scenario. You Couldn't. You Failed. You Lose.

Go lick your wounds now.

[Milo_Bloom]

130. Hmm, the person who makes it up as he goes along....

... declares himself the winner based on making it up as he goes along.


Yeah... Good luck with that.

[Hepburn]

19. And still beating Hillary...

...hell of a nosedive!

[BeatleBoot]

25. Give it another 24 hours.

[Texas Hill Country]

37. So the new Rezko stuff will be included?

[BeatleBoot]

46. Actually I think he'll tumble some more in the polls in 24 hours

Due to Jeremiah Wright's radical views.

But what's this about new Rezko stuff?

Do tell!

[Texas Hill Country]

75. He visited the guys house, he raised $250k instead of $15k, and was a bit more involved than admittd

OPPS

>.>

[BeatleBoot]

89. Thanks! Here's a great link...

http://www.abcnews.go.com/Blotter/story?id=4361454&page...

<snip>

The ruling indicated that witnesses will testify about events that took place at Rezko's home, but it does not indicate whether the Obama fundraiser, held in June 2003, would be one of the events.

Several of Rezko's associates, also figure in the investigation, attended and contributed to Obama.

An earlier motion by prosecutors detailed two instances in which Rezko directed others to make campaign contributions to "a political candidate" who has since been identified by Chicago papers as Obama.

In her ruling the judge said she doubted the photo "will generate any more publicity than this highly publicized case has already received."

<more>

[Seabiscuit]

86. Give it 4-8 days if you really want to see a nosedive.

[Hepburn]

125. And... he will be back to where he was....

...your point?

[hell-bent]

153. Take another sip of that special potion

and everything will be alright.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

33. He Lost To Hillary Yesterday 50% Hillary To 35% Obama. That's Pretty Serious.

With only one day and this story just getting started, there was an approximate 25 point swing between the two candidates. You can't underplay results like that. That's a pretty serious hit, and he most definitely didn't even come close to beating her yesterday. Instead, he took a beating.

[Texas Hill Country]

35. how is 35 to 50 a win?

[Milo_Bloom]

40. 46 to 45 = a win.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

41. 4 Day Rolling Average. Only 1 Day Of Story. Yesterday, The Poll Went 50% For Hillary, 35% For

Obama. That's the fact jack. Open your eyes. He was crushed by her yesterday.

Whether or not we will see a permanent shift or not is another story. We'll have to see what the next few days bring. But in the meantime, try not to look so ignorant in dealing with the reality of those numbers.

[Milo_Bloom]

43. Nope.

I love the made up numbers, by the way.

Actually, if you look at the poll, it is following its normal trend that it does every two weeks...

It is because they follow a pattern of calling, which is why the poll has a general roll effect to it.

All you can see is trend, which is up for Obama.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

45. Are You Deluded? Yesterday: 50% Hillary, 35% Obama. 17 Point Drop. That's Fucking Huge.

And I say 17 points, because to get to 50 the day before, that previous night's poll must've been about 52% for Obama.

17 points in one day. Crushed in the one night poll by Hillary. You think this is a normal thing? You've lost your fucking mind pal.

[Milo_Bloom]

48. I love the ASSumptions

You don't know the starting point, thus, you don't know the numbers.

And yes, it is a perfectly normal thing...

But don't let facts get in the way... I know you never do.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

50. The Starting Point Was 51-52%. That's A Fact. His End Point Was 35-36%. That's A Fact.

If you don't like those facts, well boo hoo for you. But they're still facts.

He took an approximate 17% nosedive yesterday. It may be quite temporary, and only time will tell, but it was still there no matter how much you want to be ignorant to it.

[Milo_Bloom]

54. Nope.

You don't have the raw data, thus, you don't know the numbers.

You are ASS U MING.

It's fun to watch!

[Texas Hill Country]

56. it is simple math???

If you are referred to as a special person, then I will accept and move on.

[Milo_Bloom]

59. LMAO!!!

X+Y = 100


What is X and Y?


Let me know when you have an answer.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

61. You Are Coming Off As Mightily Ignorant Here. It Is Quite Simple To Figure Out What Last Night's

numbers were. Just because you don't have the intellect to do so, doesn't mean others don't as well.

It was quite simple, and the results are quite factual. Deny it till your blue in the face. All it does is make you look like a simpleton.

But like I posted above, let's take this a step further. If you're going to make such absurd accusations, maybe you should counter with something of your own. I issue the following PUBLIC challenge to you: Show all of us any REALISTIC scenario in which based on a rolling 4 day sample, last night's polling would've been significantly different from a 50% Hillary to a 35-36% Obama result.

Ready, set, GO!!!!!!!

[Milo_Bloom]

69. X+Y = 100

What is X

WHat is Y

If you can't tell me, you are proven wrong.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

71. You Are Making Zero Sense Here. I've Given You My Numbers 20 Fucking Times Already.

You've supplied NONE.

You've done nothing but respond like an ignorant jackass hiding his head in the sand, instead of actually saying something with substance.

The challenge has been issued. You have yet to partake in it. Are you a coward or something? Do you fear that you would have to admit you're wrong in front of everybody? Well, guess we'll have to see.

Obama went from 51-52% two nights ago to 35-36% last night. That's a fact. You want to dispute it? Then show a credible and legitimate scenario in which based on the previous 4 day rolling average numbers last night's results could've POSSIBLY been significantly different than 35-36% Obama. Do it not, and suffer the fate of an ignorant fool.

Ready, set, GO!!!!!!!

[Milo_Bloom]

77. You have given me made up numbers.

Now give me REAL ones.

[nickn777]

85. OMG -- is this person serious????????

As stated on Rasmussen's site, the results are a 4 day moving average.....we were at 50 obama - 42 clinton

we are now at 46 obama 45 clinton

50 + 50 + 50 + "34" = 184 /4 gives 46 for obama now
42 + 42 + 42 + "54" = 180 /4 gives 45 for hillary


SO last nights sample was 54 Clinton - 34 for Obama --- that's right --- THIRTY FOUR

[Milo_Bloom]

95. You are ASSUMING numbers...

I can prove it was only a 2 point drop. Want proof... here:


4 Day Total Obama % Single Date
184 48 14-Mar
200 50 13-Mar
192 43 12-Mar
188 43 11-Mar
192 64 10-Mar
184 42 9-Mar
180 39 8-Mar
180 47 7-Mar
172 56 6-Mar
172 38 5-Mar
39 4-Mar
39 3-Mar
56 2-Mar

But you know what... it isn't proof.. you know why... I pulled the numbers out the exact same place people have been pulling theirs... THIN AIR... However, they work as well as the others.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

124. Psssssstttt.... You Might Want To Stop Posting That. Your 64% To 43% Drop Makes You Look Really

dumb.

Not sure you want to present that as the BEST you were able to come up with. You are embarrassing yourself here.

Hey, you haven't even matched them up to what Hillary's would had to have been. Then, you'd also have to match each up to what their PREVIOUS days, would've had to have been during the LAST 4 day rolling period. Once ya start doing that, you'll find very quickly that you created an IMPOSSIBLE data set, and have thoroughly embarrassed yourself in having done so.

Give up. You look more and more silly each time you post that as your big counter argument.

[Milo_Bloom]

132. Me thinks he doth protest too much...

Stings, doesn't it?


Next time, try the actual data approach, it makes this much less painful.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

98. Well, That's A More Simplistic View Of It, But You Are In The Right Vicinity.

Though there are other variations in play, overall looking at the past weeks numbers, in order for him to have climbed to 50 he would've had to have had about 52-52% the night before. Regardless of variations, we still would know that in order to bring the 4 day average down to 46, he would've had to have scored a MAX of 36% last night, with it more likely being around 35%.

No matter how other variables or samples are thrown in, in the end it would still show a minimum 16-17 point nosedive last night. You are definitely in the right ball park. That poster above, is just simply in a delusional state of mind and denial, and it's kinda sad to see to be honest.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

136. bad math. You are not accounting for a missing day of data

Four days (unknown) average up to 50% for Obama. One of those days rolls off, a new day is added, and Obama drops to 46.

We don't know anything speciffic about the day that droped off the average. We only know it was 25% of a set that averaged 50%.

So all sorts of numbers can be plugged in.


55 - 45 - 55 - 45 =50%
Next day: 45 - 55 - 45 - 39 = 46%

--or--

45 - 55 - 45 - 55 =50%
Next day: 55 - 45 - 55 - 29 = 46%

And to really be devils advocate...

65 - 55 - 45 - 35 =50%
Next day: 55 - 45 - 35 - 49 = 46%

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

146. The Only Example You Used That Has Any Legitimacy Is Your Second One.

I say that because of their statement that it was a sharp decline for Obama. The only one that shows that is your second example.

[Milo_Bloom]

147. But they didn't say how sharp...

You have run off half-cocked saying it was 15% or more, with nothing to base it on except an assumption of numbers you do not know.

It could be 7, 10, 5, 12, 16, 35... You can massage these numbers to make ANY of them work and any could be defined as "sharp".

I was even able to make it into an Obama victory just for fun.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

149. He Dropped By About 17 Points. Get Over It. It's No Biggie, Really.

He could easily bounce back in the next couple days after this stales a bit, and it really is no reason for you to get all uppity and defensive about it. It is what it is. Get over it. Jesus.

[Milo_Bloom]

150. Nope.

You have no clue how much he dropped.

Might be 5, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, etc...

The reality is you have no idea.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

151. The Reality Is That He Dropped By About 17 Points. It Just Hurts You Too Much To Admit.

I feel quite sorry for you. Fear not though, it very well may be temporary and you'll find him bouncing back quickly.

So hang in there. It'll be ok. There there. It'll allll be ok.

[Milo_Bloom]

155. Nope.

You have no clue and neither do I.

That's the facts jack.

[nickn777]

154. correct, but i thought the last 3 days were fairly identical....

i didn't look at the results but i thought that it had been about 50 -42 for the last 3 days or so......if it wasn't then you are correct....

[BeatleBoot]

63. Yep.

It's Rasmussen.


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics...

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
Saturday, March 15, 2008
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton essentially even in the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. It’s Obama 46% Clinton 45% (see recent daily results). This reflects an unusually sharp change from yesterday’s results when Obama led by eight points and reached the 50% level of support for the first time. Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. Last night’s results were very favorable for Clinton and it remains to be seen whether this marks a lasting change in the race or is merely statistical noise. Single night results are based upon very small samples and are more volatile than the overall tracking poll.

<more>

[rodeodance]

115. "unusually sharp change"--for BO.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

126. Shhhhhh!!!!! The Poster Just Proved That "Unusually Sharp" Only Means 2 Points.

[Milo_Bloom]

134. No, I only proved you wrong.

While admitting I made my numbers up to prove that point.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

143. LMAO. Coming Up With Something That No Person In The World Would Believe, Is Not Proof.

But you just go on thinkin ya did something intellectual, ok?

[Milo_Bloom]

145. Its proof that when you make up the numbers...

... you can have any result you want.

I can give Obama a bigger loss, a smaller loss... I can make him win, I can make him lose... I can make him win by a lot... I can make him Tie, I can make him lose by a lot.

The fact that your made up numbers are more believable, doesn't make them true... it makes them made up numbers.



Let's try a simple example.

A) It is raining in Tucson right now.


B) It is raining in Seattle right now.


Both statements are made up without me having any real knowledge of the facts.


B is more likely to be true, because it rains more often in Seattle than it does in Tucson.

However, they are still both made up without any knowledge of the facts.

[DearAbby]

17. In many ways

It's good this came out now, they shot their load early...premature ejaculation

Obama if he is able to ride this, will have been vetted. They have tried to ANGRY BLACK MAN to scare off the white voters. They have tried the RADICAL MUSLIM to scare off the voters. He has months yet to show himself for who he is.

Life is fast, the next tempest will overshadow this one. Lets try to be on top, and sharp, so we can ride the next wave, not crash in it.

[DavidDvorkin]

34. See the graph in this post:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Posted this morning. Reposted every day.

[alcibiades_mystery]

36. KEEP IT UP!!!

[yardwork]

49. This is a single night result and shows them running even.

Your subject line is misleading.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

53. It Actually Isn't. The Result Is From A 4 Day Rolling Average, So The Numbers Look Far Better Than

they really are.

The one day sample was likely 50% Hillary to 35% Obama, for a huge loss on his part. Since the day before the one night sample probably had him at 51-52%, I'd say a 17 point loss is most definitely a nosedive. At least for now anyway.

[ProSense]

57. "So The Numbers Look Far Better Than" LOL! n/t

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

64. Why Would You Laugh At That? Last Night's Numbers Indicate a 17 Point Nosedive For Obama.

So only showing a drop of 4, looks far better than the reality that occurred. You find that funny why now?

[nickn777]

80. I am not sure why some people can't read either....

As stated on Rasmussen's site, the results are a 4 day moving average.....we were at 50 obama - 42 clinton

we are now at 46 obama 45 clinton

50 + 50 + 50 + "34" = 184 /4 gives 46 for obama now
42 + 42 + 42 + "54" = 180 /4 gives 45 for hillary


SO last nights sample was 54 Clinton - 34 for Obama --- that's right --- THIRTY FOUR

[NobleCynic]

92. The problem with such an assumption

is that you assume the first three days are all identical results. Give it more than one day for the polling results to trickle in. Otherwise you could be mistaking margin of error for actual change.

But you are correct that it looks bad.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

131. I Understand Quite Readily The Different Numbers Of People In Each Sample And How The Numbers Could

vary. But when looking at the history and relative steadiness of the numbers, combined with the sudden drop and what the numbers would've had to have been prior in each previous 4 day rolling average number in order for the 50% of two days ago and 46% of last night to exist, it is quite readily ascertained that he likely lost almost 17 points.

But where you are right, is that each day itself is volatile and not something to draw any meaningful conclusions off of. We definitely have to wait and see what the next few days bring, to see if it's just temporary and he bounces right back, or if it does have more meaning to it. But either way, last night was a huge hit for him. Can't really spin that, though some appear to be in stark denial.

But based on what we've known about things like this, he very well may bounce back, and quickly. It all depends on the media more than anything else, really. If they tire, that's good. If they're just getting started, then it probably isn't going to work out for him too well.

[Sagand]

128. If you look back a few days...

You'll see from the 10th to the 11th there was a 5 point swing in Obama's way which by your maths (which assumes a lot) means Obama was 22% up that day.

44 + 44 + 44 + 32 = 164/4 = 41

46 + 46 + 46 + 54 = 192/4 = 48

So Clinton must have lost the day 54-32, by a massive 22%. Now no-one believes Clinton was behind by 22% anymore than they should believe Obama is 20% behind now.

(In fact it was the polling on the 11th that fell out today, the drop may have been partly due to this)

[nickn777]

156. correct, i had thought the last 3 days were about 50 -42....

i didn't look back to verify, but if they fluctuated then it may not have been a 54-34 night for Clinton...

[slinkerwink]

157. exactly. It's important to keep perspective.

The real polls to look for are the ones coming out this week to gauge the depth of this story.

[Milo_Bloom]

159. They always fluctuate...

They have been like a rolling wave throughout the campaign.

I put together a set of numbers above that "prove" that Obama actually won last night by 4 points... of course it is BS, but it just shows what you can prove when you make up the numbers and the numbers I gave matched perfectly with the last 10 days of polling results.

The mistake people are making is saying 25% of what number gives a 4 point swing.. but that assumes perfectly static results on every other day... however, when you fill in other days with made up numbers, you can create whatever results you want.

Unless you have access to the actual raw data, it is all just guesswork.

[PM7nj]

68. I thought Rasmussen was evil...

I remember last week when Hillary was way down, all her supporters were going on about how Rassmusssen is an evil, right wing, anti-Clinton, inaccurate pollster.

I love how people take the polls as fact when they are good to their candidate, but dismiss them when they are bad.

[rocktivity]

72. "It remains to it remains to be seen whether this marks a lasting change

or is merely statistical noise." Even THEY admit that could end up as much ado about nothing.


rocknation

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

73. Of Course It Might Be Just A Blip. Only The Coming Days Will Tell For Certain.

But for a first 24 hours number, a 17 point drop was pretty significant. But we know how this works, so we know that in a day or two it could rebound right back up to where it was. But it may also drop even further, and show a deeper wound than we want to see. Only time will tell. It's way to premature to make any real conclusion on what the big drop means in the overall scheme of things.

[slinkerwink]

113. Obama had a good pushback last night

and today, he spoke out about how the forces of division are distracting attention away from real issues. I think as long as he keeps up this tack, he'll be okay. Yes, he's bled quite a bit in the past week, but I think this could be survivable.

[JackORoses]

74. you might want to post this twice more just for effect.

I don't think your fellow Hillarites have any posts left.

[loyalsister]

83. Racism in America

Alive and well

[avrdream]

84. Thanks.

Let's see how this plays out.

[mzmolly]

88. We'll have to look at trends vs.

"single night results - based upon very small samples".

[krkaufman]

105. LOL..!! Obama "nosedives" according to OPer, but he still leads Clinton.

chortle.

[rodeodance]

106. OOPS--"unusually sharp change"--for BO.

unusually sharp change from yesterday’s results when Obama led by eight points and reached the 50% level of support for the first time.

[boppers]

148. Hillary Tries To Make up For Losses, Again FAILS to do so.

Sheesh, even the Wright firestorm can't seem to save her.

[SoCalDem]

152. Not so..

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08dem.htm

[hell-bent]

158. The smog must be unusually thick

there in southern California because you can't see the latest polls which show Obama with just a .3 spread over Clinton. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/... So sorry!

[SoCalDem]

162. It's a gorgeous sunshiney day out here..

Rasmussen is the "Freeper's Choice Poll"

The only way to make sense of polls is to take the average..and with a grain of salt, at that!

[Warren DeMontague]

160. Finally! A poll that COUNTS!

Ignore the rest of 'em, this is the only one that matters.

[LaurenG]

163. I'm not surprised

I'm not talking to other democrats who support senator Clinton when I say this but what the heck can we expect, people are so afraid of the kind of truth that Wright was speaking that they will pull their support. It was brash and harsh and people do not like the truth given to them like that so they'll turn away and look for something more comfortable. I'm hoping it's not "more of the same".