Rasmussen Poll - Obama lead drops 8 points in one day

[BooScout]

Now tell me again how the Reverend Wright is not a problem?

[anonymous171]

1. It's a problem, of course. But public opinion is very very fickle.

Obama has 6 weeks. GO!

[rodeodance]

7. ha ha . joyous day

[Nedsdag]

16. Laugh while you can.

"Your girl" will pay for it later.

[rodeodance]

20. ah------be happy.

[Nedsdag]

26. I'm happy.

It'll be supporters of "your girl" such as yourself who'll need these:

[rodeodance]

54. YOUr pillows are all wet

[Nedsdag]

84. I'm not crying.

All I'm saying is: "Be careful what you wish for."

[Nitrogenica]

22. So you're happy that "guilt by association" works so well. Ignored.

You earned this, I with great joy ignore you.

[rodeodance]

61. sour grapes!! BOO

[krkaufman]

103. I know Hillary has trouble with the meaning of "denounce", "apology" and "pledge"...

... but I didn't realize that the affliction had transmitted down to her supporters. What is it about "ignored" you didn't understand from the previous poster's comment?

[totodeinhere]

89. So you take joy in someome else's problems?

[ihavenobias]

99. It's not joyous for the Democratic party when the likely nominee (very least, potential nominee)

is hurt.

It's sad that some of us have forgotten that fact and shows just how shortsighted people can become.

[angie_love]

107. what a cruel thing for you to say. back to ignore you go.

[MNDemNY]

52. After six weeks, he'll likely be done.

[anonymous171]

57. NO he won't because he will fight it and destroy it.

[MNDemNY]

62. Not a chance. "God Damn America!!" was legs. Big long, strong legs.

[anonymous171]

65. Not if he shows otherwise. It's an image thing.

[MNDemNY]

77. The "image" will be...

Obama standing with his "spiritual adviser of twenty years" (his words) with the sound track of "God damn America"....That is the "image" Give it up he's toast.

[roguevalley]

97. and Hillie's fellowship? What about them and their theocratic

enslave the world bullshit? you don't think people aren't digging in that cesspool to hang around her neck?

[ElsewheresDaughter]

69. then he'll go down fighting but he has suffered a fatal wound...."God Damn America"

[anonymous171]

73. Why is that a fatal wound? Does he look like he hates America?

He's not a tired old bureaucrat who can be destroyed by a simple sound bite. He's an active campaigner who works passionately for America and her citizens.

[flpoljunkie]

102. Gallup: Obama Maintains Slight Edge Over Clinton--49% to 46%, returns to statistical dead heat.

Gallup Daily: Obama Maintains Slight Edge Over Clinton



PRINCETON, NJ -- The race for the Democratic nomination remains close, with Gallup Poll Daily tracking showing that 49% of Democratic voters nationwide prefer Barack Obama and 46% Hillary Clinton.

In recent weeks, Obama usually held a slight edge. However, he held a statistically significant lead in only a few of those releases. One of those instances was Friday's release, when Obama led Clinton 50% to 44%.

A major focus of Friday's media coverage of the campaign was controversial remarks on race made by Rev. Jeremiah Wright, Obama's pastor, which Obama repudiated. Clinton fared better in Friday night interviewing than in prior days. It is unclear if the Wright controversy is affecting Democratic preferences, or if the latest results are just a return to the more normal state of affairs -- a statistical dead heat between Clinton and Obama. Clinton dealt with a racial flare-up of her own in recent days over remarks made by fund-raiser Geraldine Ferraro, who resigned from her position in the Clinton campaign as a result.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/104968/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Maintains-Slight-Edge-Over-Clinton.aspx

[scheming daemons]

2. Because the timing of it means it won't be a factor by the time the next round of voting comes....

...

[rodeodance]

8. add Resco te he

[Yes We Did]

42. Too bad for you there is nothing to Resko.... Whitewater?

Since we are throwing around bogus charges.

[rodeodance]

64. ha ha ---whitewater is so yesterday. The media like fresh meat

[ElsewheresDaughter]

74. Ken Starr spent $75 million of tax payers money digging on Hillary & they came up EMPTY handed

[anonymous171]

92. Was it just Hillary or her and Bill?

Hillary RODHAM Clinton has not been vetted.

[Kittycat]

48. Would you please learn to spell?

Your ignorance is astounding.

[rodeodance]

55. ASSStounding

[Teaser]

49. "Resco"

if you are going to invest heavily in the outcome of that particular scandal, getting its name right might be a good start.

[Nedsdag]

3. Well, what's good for the geese is good for the gander.

Let's bring up Ron Burkle, Peter Paul, the tax returns, et al.

Hey, Gennifer Flowers' book is coming out, let's throw that in as well.

[Frances]

Let's not eat our own by flinging mud at Hillary

Instead, attack McCain's supporters

That would show that Obama is focused on the general election and is not afraid of facing the real enemy

Attacking Hillary just looks like two kids in kindergarten can't get along

Going after the big guy (McCain) shows that Obama is ready for the big time

[Frances]

18. I need to add that Obama should also say that

he doesn't support Wright's views nor does he support Hagee's views.

But, like most Americans, he thinks that the economy is where we should focus most energy.

[MNDemNY]

59. Go ahead, it will not displace "God Damn America!!!"

[RichardRay]

4. Reverend Wright is not a problem.

See how easy that was?

[rodeodance]

12. yup---bubbles float ---MT suits--very light.

[RichardRay]

45. Easy there, dancer...

It's just as easy to say 'Nope, no problem...' as it is to scream that the house is burning. Neither one takes much more than a few keystrokes, and neither one means much...

[Nedsdag]

47. Please put down the Kool-Aid you are drinking.

Apparently, someone has spiked it.

[Drachasor]

5. It's too soon to draw any conclusions

We'll have to wait a few days at least and see what happens. Even then, Obama has weeks to recover from any negative damage (though the net effect will probably raise his negatives at least a bit even in the long run). This change might increase or pretty much evaporate.

[BooScout]

9. I disagree....

Most of this hit the news on a Friday. We all know Friday is the one day of the week when things are ignored most by the public. If Obama got an 8 point drop in one day then what's going to happen in 3 or 4 days when more and more people begin to understand it?

[Hawkeye-X]

13. They'd rather be talking about the brackets for March Madness

so it'll be a non-story and dead by April.

Hawkeye-X

[Drachasor]

17. Possibly. All we know is that it was a big hit on the day it came out. That hit might evaporate

Or it might stay, or it might grow larger. These things can go either way; we'll just have to wait and see.

[grantcart]

6. interesting how it hasn't effected a single supedelegate

[Saturday]

10. Just wait, it will. nt

[grantcart]

101. well in Iowa it is having the reverse impact - Obama is picking up an even larger win

was at the Marshall County Convention. Here are the results from the convention...

http://commoniowan.blogspot.com /

First Alignment

Obama 86
Edwards 46
Clinton 37
Richardson 2

Viability 26

With a few minutes left during realignment, the Edwards group had 24 people, 2 shy of viability. They couldn't get 2 more people and the their group disbanded. Of those 24, 2 went to Clinton and 22 went to Obama.

After Realignment
Obama 125
Clinton 42

Delegates Elected
Obama 24
Clinton 8

[BooScout]

11. It's been breaking over the past 24 to 48 hours....

You can bet they are waiting and watching to see which way the wind is gonna blow.

[Hawkeye-X]

15. It's already a non-story..

I've already checked where the wind is blowing for the Wright controversy - it's dead, gone, and a distant memory by April.

[rodeodance]

24. not on my tv

[BooScout]

35. Only in your dreams

Hell I am in the UK and even here it's a big story.

[ProSense]

60. Good thing citizens of the UK aren't voting in the American eletion

McCain and Hillary don't want to go near that story, and for obvious reasons.

The Fox Noise makers can continue beating that dead horse.

[BooScout]

67. Well I am voting .....

I am a US citizen.......there's several million of us living abroad and last time I checked we still get to vote.

[Hawkeye-X]

71. Are you an American expat? If not.. then you know what my response will be....

[BooScout]

104. Yes I am.

I don't really care what your response will be.:eyes:

[boppers]

106. Not a lot of fire and brimstone preaching in the UK....

..is there? Then again, people aren't waving their national flags at each other 24/7 either across the pond, so this has to be odd to the UK on several levels.

[grantcart]

100. Yeah well the only thing I have been able to pick up are reports that

some Clinton pledged delegates in the Iowa caucus have switched to Obama today.

so good luck with that desperation thing.

[grantcart]

110. And here is Iowa's opinion Obama + 7 delegates

48. OBAMA MAKES MAJOR DELEGATE GAINS IN IOWA
Multiple Media sources have all agreed that Obama will net atleast 7 more delegates in Iowa

Clinton may be up or down one delegate

From DemcomWatch

7:00 EDT: NBC has Obama up 7 to 23, Clinton up 1 to 16, Edwards down 8 to 6.

8:20 EDT: The AP has Obama up 7 to 23, Clinton down 1 to 14, Edwards down 7 to 7, with 1 delegate to be decided.

Update: 9:50 EDT: - Some of the confusion is due to the requirement that a candidate receive 15% in a Congressional District to receive a delegate from that district. Currently, Edwards is projected to be viable in 4 of the 5 CDs, giving him 4 delegates at the CD level, plus 3 at the national level. But he's on the edge of 15% in a couple of CDs, and with some counties still out. If he drops below 15%, he loses the delegate, and it goes to either Clinton or Obama, depending on how the math plays out.

Note: We'll update all our trackers when the AP updates their official delegate count.

By DemcomWatch numbers Obama's magic number will drop to 419

As a point of comparison Clinton's Huge win was +9 delegates - If Clinton ends up losing a delegate in Iowa that will mean that her huge win in Ohio has been wiped out by what happened today in Iowa.

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results...

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com /

[ProSense]

14. Where does it say that?

Daily Presidential Tracking Polling History

[ruggerson]

19. You're right, it dropped 7 points in one day

and it's a multi day tracking poll.

"This reflects an unusually sharp change from yesterday’s results when Obama led by eight points and reached the 50% level of support for the first time. Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. Last night’s results were very favorable for Clinton and it remains to be seen whether this marks a lasting change in the race or is merely statistical noise. Single night results are based upon very small samples and are more volatile than the overall tracking poll"

[ProSense]

23. Having trouble reading the data? n/t

[BooScout]

28. Are you using Obama math?

:evilgrin:

[ruggerson]

34. Let's do a little basic algebra

His lead was 8 points yesterday.

Today it is 1 point.

That is a 7 point drop in his lead in one day, no?

[ProSense]

51. That's not a drop. 50 - 7 < 46 n/t

[ruggerson]

56. Lead, the word is lead

the OP said a drop in his LEAD.

Not a 7 point drop in Obama's number, but the spread between the two.

Do you deliberately do this?

[BooScout]

70. I don't think he understands math.

:toast:

[ruggerson]

76. She understands it

she's just so blindly partisan, she distorts things.

[BooScout]

25. Look at it...

Yesterday Obama was leading 50% to 42%. That's an 8 percent difference.

Today...it's 46% to 45%......essentialy a dead heat.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

36. It's Far Worse Than That BooScout. It's A 4 Day Rolling Average. This Story Only Affected One Out

of the 4 days. When extrapolating that out, it would appear that it was a 16 point drop yesterday, and that the polling numbers from yesterday were around 50% for Hillary to 35% for Obama. That's a HUGE first day hit, and that's before the news has truly festered in some people's minds.

[BooScout]

39. Sorry.........I never did like math.....

:toast: (pluss I have been watching the six nations rugby and may have had a pint or two)

[rodeodance]

58. Thank you. for that explanation.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

31. You're Right. What That Shows Is A One Day Drop Of About 16 Points. That's Horrible.

That means yesterday the poll went about 50%-35% for Hillary, or almost a 25 point swing between them both. That's a really bad first day hit. Really bad.

[gabeana]

21. I think he dropped 4

he was at 50 now at 46, Hillary 42 now at 45

or is the math that he dropped 8 but because it is a tracking poll it only shows as 4 point drop overall?

[BooScout]

29. The spread dropped 8 n/t

[Yes We Did]

50. no, spread dropped 7

[Life Long Dem]

27. Nobody questions this? I just want to see the figures

Show the percentages, the stats, the link, somethin?

I just went to Rasmussen, and the daily tracking poll has no such figure.

[BooScout]

33. Yes it does...look again

It was 50-42 yesterday....for Obama.

Today they are essentially even.

[Yes We Did]

53. essentially even is not even. he holds a 1% lead.

[Seeker30]

86. Uhhhh.....nevermind

[spooky3]

98. when two polls scores are within the margin of error, they are even

statistically. Measurement error is as likely to account for the difference as a real opinion difference in the underlying population that's being sampled.

[NJSecularist]

30. The worst "scandal" Obama will face this election cycle and Hillary still can't overcome his lead?

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

40. She Did Take The Lead. In Fact, She Blew Him Out Of The Water.

It's a 4 day tracking poll. This story was only one day of it. For that one day, though the results are far more volatile, still show that it was likely a 25 point swing in her direction, with her taking the night poll by probably 50% Hillary to 35% Obama or so. I'd say that's a pretty comfortable one night win.

[ruggerson]

It's a four day tracking poll

it couldn't have changed this much in one night without a huge change in the numbers, because it still includes three days of polling PRIOR to the Wright news. Mon/Tues results will be the more reliable numbers.

[barack the house]

32. Notat all keep watching the polls.=) FIRED UP

[bhikkhu]

37. Welcome to the rollercoaster...

PA is a long ways away, but good tidings and a happy weekend for Hillary's supporters.

:) from an Obama supporter

[exsoccermom]

85. Thank You

And for your sake, I will hope that my fear of other, worse tapes that show the Obamas in house will not pop up after the convention.

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

38. Can you read polls?

[BooScout]

43. Yup....can you?

:toast:

[IrishBloodEngHeart]

41. Hillary is still behind after all that? You should be discouraged

Is there anything that will make people actually support Hillary? Her only hope is people not supporting Obama.

[Texas Hill Country]

75. IT IS A 4 DAY AVERAGE - THE DAY AFTER WRIGHT ITS HILLARY 50% OBAMA 35%!!!!!

Damn, read some polls properly.

[IrishBloodEngHeart]

94. I did, did you read the poll? Let me quote

"Last night’s results were very favorable for Clinton and it remains to be seen whether this marks a lasting change in the race or is merely statistical noise. Single night results are based upon very small samples and are more volatile than the overall tracking poll."

The poll is inconclusive according to those who took it.

[otohara]

44. You Must Be Thrilled

go out and celebrate the fact that our country still harbors racist views and can't handle the truth about our war history.

[BooScout]

63. No I am not thrilled......I am pissed off.....

That the Democrats have probably blown any freaking chance to take the WH.

[rodeodance]

68. I am starting to feel that way also. --and it is not a good feeling.

[Texas Hill Country]

91. yup

[Teaser]

46. correlation is not equal to causation

.

[Straight Shooter]

105. They better "hope" it's causation and not correlation.

Because if that drop in his popularity is not directly related to the Wright debacle, then the Obama camp is in serious trouble because it means his popularity is dropping despite Wright, and therefore how would they even begin to address the problem if they don't know the cause? If his popularity is dropping, then the Wright debacle will precipitate a further drop, if the cause is perhaps people changing their perception that he's the "unity" or "change" candidate.

[DemGa]

66. Damn, and Obama ran on Hillary's "negatives"

I knew would it would turn on him -- it's always surprising though, how fast these things can occur.

[anonymous171]

80. Where do you get that? He runs on "Hope and Change" not "Hillary is evil"

Hillary however, runs on "Obama is a terrorist" and "Don't trust him" and "Obama will kill us all."

[DemGa]

87. You really missed it?

Obama has routinely proclaimed he was the better candidate because Hillary was "polarizing and divisive" and would "unite the opposition."

Obama's made much use of the right-wing attacks of the nineties -- Hillary's "negatives."

[anonymous171]

88. Saying Hillary is "divise" isn't a RW attack-- It's true.

To say that Hillary is a lesbian or that she and Bill murdered Vince Foster would be a RW attack. <- None of that is true, BTW.

[Life Long Dem]

72. Is this CNN's spin? How about answering where the 50% came from?

Yesterday's 50% boost came from where? The Wright issue? Now take that 50% out and your left with the normal fluctuation. But the real story is where did the 50% come from?

[BooScout]

79. ummmmmmmmm......Hope?

:eyes:

[stray cat]

78. Its looking better for President John McCain all the time

Not bad since he is Hillary's second choice after herself.

[Life Long Dem]

83. He wants nothnig to do with this religion stuff. Wonder why?

[zulchzulu]

81. You can wank to a national poll all you want. Obama has sealed the deal with delegates

It's nearly impossible for the Goldwater Girl to catch up. Enjoy your delusion. The game is over and you think you still have a chance.

:rofl:

[BooScout]

90. The supers can walk away from him....

and if you think they won't if he tanks in the polls then you are deluding yourself.

The supers were created for just this type of scenario.

[mchill]

93. The two publicly undeclared Superdelegates I know

are not abandoning him. :)

[anigbrowl]

82. Not too worried...I think it'll be back up by Wednesday. .nt

[DavidDvorkin]

95. See the detailed graph in this post:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5092990&mesg_id=5092990

Posted this morning, reposted every day, ignored by other people who see the Rasmussen graph.

[Usrename]

96. Obama lead?

Wow, he's got the lead.

[Seabiscuit]

108. I believe it will continue to drop over the next six weeks. This Wright story is

not going to go away. The media is now exploiting the story to the hilt (almost every lead in story on the major channels is about this). Could this be Obama's "Dean Scream" moment? Remember how the media played and replayed the scream, well I see the same thing with the Wright story. His lead will continue to drop because the story is a turn off for most Americans regardless of political affiliation. I think cross over votes and independents will think twice about voting for him in the GE. Really, not a good moment for Barack.

[ORDem]

109. How nice of you to NOT post a link so that we could easily check that you're blowin' smoke here.

Here are the numbers the last several days:

Democratic Primary

Date C O
3/15 45% 46%
3/14 42% 50%
3/13 41% 48%
3/12 42% 47%
3/11 41% 48%
3/10 44% 46%

And so on ...

Do you just get kicks out of posting nonsense titles or are you just stupid?

:dem: