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adoraz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 10:07 AM
Original message
NEW POLL with the Damage reported
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/ele...

Obama did take a hit, but he is still up by one. This is taking into consideration the comments by Wright, HOWEVER, it is not counting Obama's responses last night.

Not too bad a decline. He will bounce up again.
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tekisui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 10:08 AM
Response to Original message
1. And with plenty of recovery time to PA.
Nothing but an old news clip by November.
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izzybeans Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 10:08 AM
Response to Original message
2. I doubt that significant enough number of Rasmussen sample participants
had heard of this story before that poll was conducted. I'd wait a few days.
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SoFlaJet Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 10:08 AM
Response to Original message
3. I fell pretty good and still very optimistic
about where this country can go starting in January after PRESIDENT Barack Obama takes the oath of office
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OPERATIONMINDCRIME Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 11:34 AM
Response to Reply #3
35. He Fell Pretty Good Too.
:rofl:
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SoFlaJet Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 02:35 PM
Response to Reply #3
63. ahhh the ignore feature is great
I don't have to read what some of the biggest fucking idiots here have to say anymore....I don't even have to know WHO they are-only WHAT they are and then I never see their bullshit anyway-thank you DU...great little added feature that ignore
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goldcanyonaz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 10:09 AM
Response to Original message
4. Obama down 4, huh? Neither seems to be able to get above 50.
Time to come together or fall further apart.

Neither side is budging in their support.
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adoraz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 10:11 AM
Response to Reply #4
7. yeah I wouldn't worry too much abou that yet
Both are down by about the same about o McCain, but its just a daily thing.

These graphs ALWAYS change.
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NDambi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 10:11 AM
Response to Reply #4
8. Can you say...President McCain
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JoFerret Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 11:35 AM
Response to Reply #8
36. Aaaaaaagh
.
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JackORoses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 11:12 AM
Response to Reply #4
27. people will budge when Hillary drops out. Guaranteed.
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JoFerret Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 11:36 AM
Response to Reply #27
38. And the same if Obama dropped out
Guaranteed.
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JackORoses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 11:59 AM
Response to Reply #38
49. Winners don't have to drop out.
I'm pretty sure that is part of the definition of a Winner.

2nd place is just the first Loser.
Thanks for playing, though!
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ElsewheresDaughter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 12:09 PM
Response to Reply #49
50. but caught LIARS should
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JackORoses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 12:10 PM
Response to Reply #50
51. if that was the case, Hillary would have never been a candidate.
will you drop out of this board if your accusations against Obama prove false?

I doubt it, you seem to have little regard for integrity.
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Altair Donating Member (59 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 10:10 AM
Response to Original message
5. Only one day of the 4-day total takes the news into account ...
and news coverage on that first day was very spotty. So if you take that into account, it looks like good news for Hillary- I'd have to assume that one day showed her up by double-digits if one day's results took a 4-day average from an 8 percent to a 1 percent lead.
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adoraz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 10:12 AM
Response to Reply #5
10. just just realized that
but I still don't think it will be too big a deal. By the time PA comes around, this will be old news.

every day these polls are shifting.
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BadgerLaw2010 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 10:13 AM
Response to Reply #10
13. Why would this become old news? It becomes less true over time?
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adoraz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 10:22 AM
Response to Reply #13
15. well to start
He spoke out against it yesterday. That already makes it old news for many.

No, not completely gone, there will still be people upset, but the fact that he has already rejected these statements means a lot.
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OPERATIONMINDCRIME Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 11:36 AM
Original message
This Is The Second Largest Single Day Drop For EITHER During The Entire Primary.
And that's with this thing just getting started. NONE of us can predict right now what the next few days will bring, but this first glimpse is anything but a positive one.
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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 10:11 AM
Response to Original message
6. A bit of a hit yesterday.
Most of these data were collected before Obama took to the media with his response. He'll bounce back.

By the way, Hillary also dropped down two in head-to-head versus McCain so it might have been a more Repug friendly sample. http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/ele...
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Texas Hill Country Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 10:11 AM
Response to Original message
9. Its a 4 day rolling average - that hit is HUGE since he was up by 8% the last 3 days. 15% DROP.
Edited on Sat Mar-15-08 10:14 AM by Texas Hill Country
That means he was at like 35% in the last poll... a 15% drop in one day!!!! that HURTS.
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adoraz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 10:13 AM
Response to Reply #9
12. true, but still
its not taking into account his rejection of the comments.

this is simply going by first reaction.
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Joe the Revelator Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 10:40 AM
Response to Reply #9
18. Yes it is so HUGE. Now that the worse is out, how will he will he EVER be able to recover
I mean, its not like he still leads the poll or anything.
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Texas Hill Country Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 11:37 AM
Response to Reply #18
39. And now Resko popped up AGAIN... things are not looking good.
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OPERATIONMINDCRIME Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 11:39 AM
Response to Reply #18
42. Open Your Eyes To Reality. Yesterday, It Was Probably 50% Hillary To 35% Obama.
If you think that means he's leading, you're nuts.
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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 10:13 AM
Response to Original message
11. Self-delete
Edited on Sat Mar-15-08 10:14 AM by jefferson_dem
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Kittycat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 10:22 AM
Response to Original message
14. Almost a match to 5 days ago.
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Scurrilous Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 10:38 AM
Response to Original message
16. K & R
:thumbsup:
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democrattotheend Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 10:39 AM
Response to Original message
17. It'll get worse before it gets better
This poll is a three-day average, so if he dropped 4 points in 1 night in the average, he was probably down a lot more in last night's interviews. But hopefully he can bounce back...the last time this happened was right before the Ohio and Texas primaries. Luckily there is no primary this Tuesday.
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suston96 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 10:40 AM
Response to Original message
19. That's a tracking poll average. That means a huge hit on Friday. nt
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Tropics_Dude83 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 10:41 AM
Response to Reply #19
21. My math
He went from being up 50-42% to likely being down 50-35%. This means that he is now down by 15 points and has suffered a 30 point hit over this.
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Jersey Devil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 11:16 AM
Response to Reply #21
28. Maybe the poll is now where it should be
I agree that Obama took a big hit yesterday, but Rasmussen, as I understand it, uses a 3 day rolling average, so maybe what brought Obama up to 50% in the first place was the big hit Hillary probably took the two days before for the Ferraro debacle. We really won't know for another week or so (barring further disasters for either side).
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Texas Hill Country Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 11:38 AM
Response to Reply #28
41. its a 4 day avg... and regardless... that hit is massive... and doesnt include new Resko stuff.
Edited on Sat Mar-15-08 11:39 AM by Texas Hill Country
Bad sign.
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OPERATIONMINDCRIME Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 11:37 AM
Response to Reply #21
40. Agreed. And That's With This Thing Only Getting Started.
Edited on Sat Mar-15-08 11:37 AM by OPERATIONMINDCRIME
This has only begun to fester into the minds of people, and many in that poll might not have even been exposed fully to it yet.
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rodeodance Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 11:45 AM
Response to Reply #40
46. I doubt if the Resco stuff is included at all in this poll.
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slinkerwink Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 10:40 AM
Response to Original message
20. okay, as long as we continue the offensive, we'll be okay
We have to put Hillary on the defensive.
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Seeker30 Donating Member (904 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 10:44 AM
Response to Original message
22. People have all weekend to see this crazy lunatic screaming over and over
Oabama will be down by 10 by Monday.
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stillcool Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 11:19 AM
Response to Reply #22
29. I think that people "offended"...
wouldn't have voted for Obama in the first place. Those posters who are 'outraged' here appear to be Hillary supporters, and newbies posting for shits and giggles.
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DavidDvorkin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 10:46 AM
Response to Original message
23. See the graph of the Rasmussen poll at this link:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Posted earlier this morning. Posted daily, as early as possible.
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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 10:48 AM
Response to Original message
24. He was down at least 12-14 points in the Friday sample
That's a four day tracking poll and we know that three of the days are Obama's best period ever (Yesterday he hit 50% for the first time)

The Friday sampling must have been incredibly bad.
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OPERATIONMINDCRIME Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 11:25 AM
Response to Reply #24
32. If It's A 3 Day Sample, I Have A 14 Point Calculated Drop. That's Really Harsh.
If it's a 4 day rolling average, then it's at least a 16 point drop.
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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 11:09 AM
Response to Original message
25. No movement with intrade investors...yet.
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kwenu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 11:12 AM
Response to Original message
26. It's good that we're getting this out of the way now. They've played their "trump" card.
Edited on Sat Mar-15-08 11:13 AM by kwenu
And now they can just sit and continue to fume as Obama becomes president.
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ruggerson Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 11:21 AM
Response to Original message
30. it's a 3 or 4 day tracking poll - won't know effect for a few more days
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OPERATIONMINDCRIME Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 11:21 AM
Response to Original message
31. For A 3 Day Tracking Poll, That's Actually Pretty Bad. And This Is Just The Start.
Edited on Sat Mar-15-08 11:26 AM by OPERATIONMINDCRIME
We'll have to see the trend over the next few days, but for him to take a 4 point hit right out of the gate, is most definitely not something you should be viewing as positive. Based on the 3 day tracking poll, it's a hell of a lot harder than a 4 point drop.

He very well may bounce back, or he may sink even further. We're just gonna have to wait and see.

But for the first day to see a MINIMUM 14 point drop? That's horrendous. And that's based off a 3 day average. Is it really 4 days? Some are saying so but I'm not sure.
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GoldieAZ49 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 11:28 AM
Response to Original message
33. Did you read this? Sharp decline
O is as low as H against Mc

down by 7% according to them

Its Obama 46% Clinton 45% (see recent daily results). This reflects an unusually sharp change from yesterdays results when Obama led by eight points and reached the 50% level of support for the first time.


Then

Looking to November, John McCain now holds a slight lead over both Democrats in the General Election. Its McCain 47% Obama 42% and McCain 46% Clinton 42%


I am hearing Wright all over the cable news channels this morning, I can't stand to hear the man anymore, if this plays tomorrow morning the public is going to do whatever it takes to get this off their TV.

They don't want to hear Wright screaming G D America on Sunday morning
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rodeodance Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 11:43 AM
Response to Reply #33
44. whow. that is a sharp drop for Obama
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Ka hrnt Donating Member (235 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 11:44 AM
Response to Reply #33
45. To quote Bender...
"We're boned."

"Looking to November, John McCain now holds a slight lead over both Democrats in the General Election. Its McCain 47% Obama 42% and McCain 46% Clinton 42%."


Pathetic. Maybe the DNC should be looking at a "do over" for the entire primary...
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JoFerret Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 11:34 AM
Response to Original message
34. Until around about September 15th
.
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RazBerryBeret Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 11:36 AM
Response to Original message
37. what ticks me off....
is that McCain is now up against BOTH of them! crap!
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rodeodance Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 11:40 AM
Response to Original message
43. Obama down 4, Clinton up up 3. O 46 C 45.
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barack the house Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 11:45 AM
Response to Original message
47. That's really good considering I feel he is coming back strong this time. Let's keep the positiviy
Edited on Sat Mar-15-08 11:50 AM by barack the house
ppositivity up. THe more they come at us the more enthusiasm we come back with. LET'S DO THIS. This time we aren't backing down no matter what. Peace and love.
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Straight Shooter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 11:56 AM
Response to Original message
48. I wonder how people will respond to Obama turning his back on his "father figure"
I think Wright is a father figure to Barack; he has been very instrumental in overseeing and shaping Obama's development from a very young man of 26 to a man of 46. Wright, born in 1941, is 66 years old, which means he's the perfect age to fill in the role of Obama's missing father.

I'm sure all Wright has to do is bide his time and he'll be back in Obama's good graces again. Meanwhile, he's political collateral.
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GarbagemanLB Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 12:12 PM
Response to Reply #48
53. 'turning his back'? Did you even watch the Olberman interview? He specifically said he doesn't renou
ce the man, just some of his quotes.
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anonymous171 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 12:11 PM
Response to Original message
52. *whew*
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OPERATIONMINDCRIME Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 12:17 PM
Response to Reply #52
54. Why Are You Saying Whew? Did You Read The Other Responses In The Thread?
This is a minimum 14-16 point one day drop for him. The polls yesterday likely had it at 50% Hillary, 35% Obama. How can you possibly say whew at that?
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anonymous171 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 12:19 PM
Response to Reply #54
57. 6 weeks for him to get back up.
It's not good, but it's better than I expected.
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OPERATIONMINDCRIME Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 12:22 PM
Response to Reply #57
59. Better Than You Expected? Really?
I think it's worse actually. The story hasn't even begun to fester in the minds or most and is just getting started, and it already was a 30 point swing towards Hillary? Sorry, but that's like realllllly not too good of a sign out of the gate, and most definitely not deserving of a *whew!*. Not by a long shot.
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writes3000 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 12:23 PM
Response to Reply #59
61. So this poster isn't allowed to have their perspective?
Really?

You get to determine their reaction?
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OPERATIONMINDCRIME Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 12:25 PM
Response to Reply #61
62. Oy Vey Get A Grip. n/t
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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 12:20 PM
Response to Reply #54
58. GALLUP differs.
Insignificant movement so far.
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writes3000 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 12:22 PM
Response to Reply #54
60. OMC, we've been here before - like with the 3am call ad.
Obama gets ravaged and his numbers dip. They dipped big with the 3am ad.

And they rose again. We'll see if he can overcome this. I think he can.

If he can't, for me, it says far more about the weakness of this country than it does about Barack Obama.
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AgadorSparticus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 12:18 PM
Response to Original message
55. this is so overblown and yesterday.....
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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 12:19 PM
Response to Original message
56. Looks like GALLUP TRACKING has it at Obama 49 (-1) vs. Hillary 46 (+2)
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