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Pennsylvania County-level Projections based on Demographic and Geopolitical Attributes

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usregimechange Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-14-08 11:35 PM
Original message
Pennsylvania County-level Projections based on Demographic and Geopolitical Attributes
Edited on Fri Mar-14-08 11:40 PM by usregimechange
Introduction
Prior to the Mississippi primary I projected which Democratic candidate would win in 40 of the states 81 counties. On election night all of those projections turned out to be true:

Now I have turned my attention to Pennsylvania. Below are my projections, methods, and a detailed breakdown of Pennsylvanias geopolitical landscape.

Pennsylvania Projections


Methods
As with my Mississippi projections there are cut-off scores for each percentage above the state average in several different demographic categories. Obama strongholds are determined from high percentages of African Americans, high percentages of educated citizens, and low percentages of elderly citizens. Clinton strongholds are determined by high percentages of elderly, high percentages of whites, and low percentages of educated citizens. The cutoffs for Pennsylvania are as follows:

Clinton stronghold cut-offs:
Percent of Persons 65 Years or greater: more than 19%
Percent of Persons Who Are White: more than 98%
Percent of Persons 25 Years and Over with Bachelor's Degree or Higher: Less than 9%

Obama stronghold cut-offs:
Percent of Persons 25 Years and Over with Bachelor's Degree or Higher: More than 28%
Percent of Persons Who Are Black or African American: More than 16%

Cutoff justification
Some may question the racial cutoffs. Clinton has tended to do well among whites, at times very well. However, her white support has not been consistent, while Obamas Black support has been both consistent and has gone to him by wide margins, thereby increasing the impact of this population. Obama has won the white vote in a number of states while Clinton lost the Black vote even in her home state(s) of Arkansas and New York.

I will note that the almost all the counties that do not meet cut-offs and for which I am not projecting for either candidate have demographic make-ups that favor Clinton. If she does well she should carry almost all of them and she will likely carry most of them. However, I am projecting that Obama will carry fewer counties but his counties are more populous.

Pennsylvania population centers


Obama strongholds

Pittsburgh


Pittsburgh is centrally located in Allegheny County. Allegheny county has an African American population of 13.3%, which is under the cutoff but it is also significantly educated with 28.3% with a Bachelors degree or higher.






Philadelphia


Philadelphia, in extreme southeastern Pennsylvania, is where Obama can run up the numbers. Philly is the 5th most populous city in the United States (1,517,550) and it has a massive African American population at 45.8%, the highest by far in the state.





Centre County is the third most educated county in Pennsylvania. State College, a borough in Centre County, is home to Penn State University. It has the lowest percentage of elderly citizens than any other county in the state.




Montgomery County (Philly suburbs) is the second highest educated county in Pennsylvania with 38.7% with a Bachelors degree or higher. It contains 750,097 people per the 2000 census.




Chester County is the most educated county in the state of Pennsylvania. At almost twice the state percentage, Chester county contains 42.5% of individuals with a Bachelors degree or higher. The county contains Cheyney University of Pennsylvania, the Exton and Downingtown Campuses of Delaware County Community College, Immaculata University, Lincoln University, Penn State Great Valley, the Exton Campus of Troy University, and West Chester University of Pennsylvania. Its population is one of the youngest in the state.




Dauphin County has an African American population of 18%. Dauphin county is home to Harrisburg, the state capital, which is 54.8% Black.




Delaware County has a sizable portion of Philly suburbs and as such has a significant African American population at 18.4% and is also well educated at 30% with a Bachelors or higher. It also includes the city of Chester, which is 75.7% Black.




Bucks County is another Philly suburban county in the Delaware River Valley. It is where George Washington crossed the Delaware River in December of 1776 on his way to one of the most significant battles in the Revolutionary war. It has few African Americans but is highly educated with 31.2% having a Bachelors degree or higher. It is also significantly young compared to the rest of the state.




Clinton Strongholds

I predict that Hillary will do well in a sizable majority of counties. For example, there are a number of rural counties with high concentrations of elderly voters, which have consistently supported Clinton. These counties have resulted in a number of projections for Hillary. Note that only the dark green counties are over my cut-off scores.




Lackawanna County


Lackawanna County has a significant percentage of elderly citizens (19.5% 65+) and is widely Caucasian (96.7). It is also less educated than the state average. This is a county that is in a rural area but it also has a decent population, it contains Scranton, where Hillary has campaigned recently.

Luzerne County


Luzerne County, which borders Lackawanna county to the southwest, also has a sizable population with many rural blue-collar characteristics. It is home to 313,020 people who are elderly (19.7% 65+), Caucasian (96.6%), and less educated (16.4% with a Bachelors or higher) than the state average.

There is no Latino population to speak of in Pennsylvania but there is a small concentration in the following three counties:




The Pennsylvania Primary is on Tuesday, April 22. The state has 188 delegates up for grabs. Recent polls have indicated an average lead of about 15% for Hillary Clinton but she will need to win by much larger margins than this to make a significant dent in Obama's delegate lead.





http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/Seth7...
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Stardust Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 12:10 AM
Response to Original message
1. Wow! K&R!!! I look forward to your analysis during the GE, my friend.
:applause:
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usregimechange Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 12:14 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. Thanks, GE would almost be easier because the results would mirror 04, 00
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Stardust Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 01:31 AM
Response to Reply #2
8. Now that's discouraging. I assumed the whole country, or at least
a big portion had experienced enlightenment after these last seven horrendous years. But, no? Still the same percentage of aholes? I should have kept the "I See Dumb People" bumpersticker, after all? Damn.
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usregimechange Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 12:59 PM
Response to Reply #8
17. Well, all the dems need is some white counties to turn light blue
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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 12:15 AM
Response to Reply #1
3. Lehigh and Northhampton
It may be early but the Obama campaign has been active up here a while. He already has alot in place. Hillary hasn't opened up one office here yet. Obama's second opens tommorow. I can't speak for the rest of the state but we are going to be competitive here.
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usregimechange Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 12:17 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. Yeah, I wasn't able to project those counties because some demos didn't favor Clinton
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usregimechange Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 12:23 AM
Response to Reply #3
5. Lehigh County is more educated than the state average and isn't over the ave in 65+
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Stardust Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 01:22 AM
Response to Reply #3
7. Hi Jake3463! Welcome and good luck!
:hi:
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usregimechange Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 12:53 AM
Response to Original message
6. Any other PA on the ground reports? What are you seeing?
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PaDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 02:22 PM
Response to Reply #6
23. Seeing Obama signs come out in the Philly burbs..........
moreso than Clinton signs. It's early yet for the sign wars. I think Obama will do well in the Philly Suburbs myself.
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usregimechange Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 09:14 AM
Response to Original message
9. I am adding some graphs that I left out...
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usregimechange Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 09:34 AM
Response to Original message
10. Another...
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JimGinPA Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 10:01 AM
Response to Original message
11. The Obama Campaign Opened An Office In Lancaster This Week...
Several people from his national campaign have come to work with the local goups. There have been meetings and voter registrations and other activities going on for weeks. HRC only has 6 offices statewide so far, with the closest in Harrisburg, which is an area she probably won't do very well.
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usregimechange Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 12:47 PM
Response to Reply #11
14. Yeah Lancaster has mixed demos, its younger than the state average but also less edu
and 6.7% latino...
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usregimechange Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 12:54 PM
Response to Reply #14
16. Plus there is a goo chunk of Latinos in Lancaster city, but the city is younger than the rest of the
co
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thevoiceofreason Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 10:12 AM
Response to Original message
12. Excellent analysis
Do you carry your analysis to the level of turnout and results?

Any predictions?
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usregimechange Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 12:50 PM
Response to Reply #12
15. Turnout is hard to estimate but I believe the counties will go the way I predicted
Any candidate winning the counties I projected for the other candidate will have a good night.
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thevoiceofreason Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 09:49 PM
Response to Reply #15
35. Makes sense
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usregimechange Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-17-08 05:43 PM
Response to Reply #35
36. I suspected Hillary would win Gulfport in MS but it went for Obama but the
counties that I project are a safer bet than those that simply lean a certain way.
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Scurrilous Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 10:12 AM
Response to Original message
13. K & R
Great job! :thumbsup:
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usregimechange Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 01:59 PM
Response to Reply #13
19. Thanks
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usregimechange Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 01:23 PM
Response to Original message
18. Latinos in PA:
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Lithos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 02:02 PM
Response to Original message
20. so...
what is your delegate breakout?
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usregimechange Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 02:20 PM
Response to Reply #20
22. I don't go that far, it really depends on the turnout, but Obama can win with that few counties
Edited on Sat Mar-15-08 02:20 PM by usregimechange
if he is competitive in rural PA.
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Lithos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 02:23 PM
Response to Reply #22
24. Have you considered taking your model
And then adding in a few projected turnouts? Ie, low turnout, midlevel turnout, high turnout, special turnout (weather, rural/urban breakouts, etc.). This would show the sensitivity of your model.

L-
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usregimechange Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 03:19 PM
Response to Reply #24
31. Good idea but I will have to think of how to do this objectively...
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Ysabel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 02:18 PM
Response to Original message
21. great info thanks! n/t...
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Capn Sunshine Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 02:26 PM
Response to Original message
25. This is great! One question remains:
what, if any, effect do the 65,000 new Democratic Party voters registered by the campaign this cycle have on the MOE? have you accounted for this ? Is that a significant figure in the scheme of things?
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usregimechange Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 03:11 PM
Response to Reply #25
28. GOTV could make the difference but it is difficult to account for this...
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Capn Sunshine Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 04:12 PM
Response to Reply #28
33. I ask this because we have projected this is our best avenue to win there
It's nearly impossible, but if we keep it close we can maintain our delegate lead.
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indimuse Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 02:29 PM
Response to Original message
26. amazing!
Great post..thx. :)
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usregimechange Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 03:11 PM
Response to Reply #26
29. Your welcome!
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BumRushDaShow Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 03:07 PM
Response to Original message
27. Bravo! And more state's colleges...
:applause:

The one thing that you might also point out is that Pennsylvania overall has the 3rd largest concentration of colleges in the nation and the Philadelphia region alone (which would include the city and surrounding counties) has the 2nd largest concentration of colleges in the country. To put this in perspective - Pennsylvania is no Ohio where Ohio has ~200 colleges and universities versus Pennsylvania with over 3200.

To ignore these potential voters is, IMHO, suicide. You don't have to just focus on Penn State in the State College area, but can find a student body population easily surpassing Penn State's right here in Philadelphia with Univ. of Penn, Temple U., Drexel U., LaSalle U., University of the Sciences, St. Joe's U., Community College, etc.

There continues to be a number of voter registration drives going on here in the city and the response has been enthusiastic.
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usregimechange Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 03:13 PM
Response to Reply #27
30. I considered mentioning this but the educated population of PA is equivalent to OH
But there are a lot of schools.
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BumRushDaShow Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 03:24 PM
Response to Reply #30
32. However how well does the census capture that transient student population?
I know that when I was away at college, the 10-year census hit during that time and I did take the effort to fill out the form (long form) to submit. How many of these students do such?

I suppose the argument being that whatever population of students is here at the time of the election, that is a voting bloc worth going after and it is not insignificant!
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usregimechange Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 07:06 PM
Response to Reply #32
34. Your right and Obama should do well amongst them
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