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Once again: Do not believe CNN, IBD, ABC. Here is proof Kerry is ahead.

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-04 12:45 PM
Original message
Once again: Do not believe CNN, IBD, ABC. Here is proof Kerry is ahead.

Kerry is LEADING in 7 of 12 polls. His 12-poll average lead is 1.73%

Only a slight drop from his 2.64% lead in March. And this drop is only due to the pro-Bush shills at CNN, ABC and IBD who had a 10% Bushit turnaround. I don't trust their numbers. I don't believe Kerry lost a vote.

I predicted a month ago that they would not let Bush fall further. I believe they are rigging the polls to keep it "close".

Its NOT really close. Kerry is leading. He has the Big Mo and will only lengthen his lead..

Check Zogby, Newsweek, ARG, CBS.

And Kerry is raising megabucks at a record pace. Bush has shot a $50 million load already. Now its time for Kerry to spend some of that money. And watch his lead grow - but not on CNN, Fox, Msnbc or IBD. They are propping up Bush.

Look to Zogby for the truth.

12 -POLL AVERAGE
Month Kerry Bush Spread
Jan 40.50 51.25 -10.75
Feb 47.38 45.50 1.88
Mar 47.36 44.73 2.64
Apr 47.00 45.27 1.73


1 IBD
Jan na na
Feb 44 41 3
Mar 45 43 2
Apr 40 44 -4


2 ABC
Jan na na
Feb 52 43 9
Mar 53 44 9
Apr 48 49 -1

3 AP
Jan 37 54 -17
Feb na na
Mar 45 46 -1
Apr 44 45 -1

4 NWK
Jan 41 52 -11
Feb 50 45 5
Mar 48 45 3
Apr 50 43 7

5 ARG
Jan 47 46 1
Feb 48 46 2
Mar 50 43 7
Apr 50 44 6

6 NBC
Jan 35 54 -19
Feb na na
Mar 45 47 -2
Apr na na

7 FOX
Jan 32 54 -22
Feb 43 47 -4
Mar 44 44 0
Apr 48 43 5

8 CBS
Jan 48 43 5
Feb 47 46 1
Mar 43 46 -3
Apr 48 43 5

9 CNN
Jan 43 55 -12
Feb 48 49 -1
Mar 52 44 8
Apr 46 51 -5

10 PEW
Jan 41 52 -11
Feb 47 47 0
Mar 48 44 4
Apr 47 46 1

11 LA Times
Jan na na
Feb na na
Mar na na
Apr 49 46 3

12 Zogby
Jan na na
Feb na na
Mar 48 46 2
Apr 47 44 3



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lazarus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-04 12:48 PM
Response to Original message
1. national polls are meaningless
There's some evidence out there that Bush is simply increasing his lead in the red states, which won't help him a bit.

In doesn't matter if he wins Texas 60-40 or 80-20, he still gets just as many electoral college votes.

Where Bush is hurting is in the battleground states, where he isn't gaining any support at all.

Plus, there are huge undecideds in these polls, and those people tend to swing to the challenger.

Finally, at least one person has made the case that Bush's numbers are a ceiling, while Kerry's are the floor. Kerry really hasn't even started to campaign yet, and he's tied or leading? Not bad at all.
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Toronto Ron Donating Member (429 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-04 02:15 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. True, but...
Weren't there a couple of recent polls that show the bushler leading in PA? That's cause for concern. I dare say: no PA, no PA Avenue for Kerry.
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Zynx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-04 12:56 PM
Response to Original message
2. Many on this forum are acting silly.
Bush ahead by 3 to 5 points is not worth mentioning particularly when he is behind or tied in other polls. It is statistically insignificant.
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Nicholas_J Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-04 02:17 PM
Response to Original message
4. National Polls are not necessarily useless
That indicate trends on a certain scale, but not necessarily on the streets. Sort of a macro view. State polls also are accurate, in some areas, but not necessarily in others. In this case, Kerry is ahead in the 17 key states for the election. Also, in sereral states that Bush won handily in 2000, Kerry is becoming something of a threat, narrowing the gap between himself and Bush to half of the percentages by which Bush won those states in 2000. Bush won Colorado by 9 points in 2000, but he is only polling 5 points ahead of Kerry.Bush won Arkansas by 6 points, but is only 2 point ahead now, and the Bush campaign people believe that Arkansas may fall by the wayside. He won He won New Hampshre by a bare margin of 1 percent, Kery is ahead by 2 percent.He won Ohio by 4 percent, He is only 2 percent ahead now.

Then again, Bush is ahead in some states that Gore won in 2000. But the overall picture at the state level is favoring Kerry, who has a has more states firmly in Democratic Blue Territory and sure stay Democrat than Bush ,with 8 states providing him with 155 electoral votes by double digits, and then being ahead by nearly double digits in 3 other states, while Bush has 13 states that are sure Republican and sure to stay that way giving Bush 122 electoral votes. Another 5 states lean Republican, but several like Missouri are close enough for Kerry to pull ahead, especially if Gephardtcampaigns hard to get him that state.

This leaves 9 states too close to call, with 92 electoral votes, and 13 states for which there is no data for 72 electoral votes.

The states too close to call:
New Hampshire,Wisconsin,Ohio,Iowa,Florida, Arkansas, Washington ,Oregon,and New Mexico.

ALready,Kerry is moving forward fast in New Hampshire, has been doing extremely well in Iowa until on recent poll that puts him and Bush about even, is even or slightly ahead in Florida, Is well ahead in Washington State, running dead even in New Mexico. Kerry and Bush are running closer and closer in Pennsylvania, and Nader's percentages there have dropped significantly in the last several polls there,all done by the same pollster, going from 8 percent to 2 percent there in the last month. Every time I check the state polls, I become certain that Kerry is running a firm up a possible electoral college win first, and then worry about the popular vote, which seems to be working, though conservative pundits and web sites give Bush somehing like 30 more electoral votes than Kerry by November, the facts are that many of the states that half of the states that were leaning towards Kerry a two months ago, have become states in which Kerry has been sustaining double digit leads for the last month or more.

I think Kerry is working the largest electoral college states first in oder to avoid the kind of upset that occured in 2000. Bush certainly has to work harder, as he has had to win more states in order to get the number of sure electoral votes that he currently has, as i noted, 122 in 13 states, while Kerry has 33 more certain electoral votes in firmly democratic states in far fewer state, eight.
Kerry needs to win far fewer states in order to wn the electoral college, which means he can focus heavily in those states with large numbers of electoral votes. Kerry is focusing heavily on Florida right now, and has been slighly ahead in most of the polls taken since February.

I think that Kerry's seeming current strategy of getting far ahead of Bush in as many of the larger electoral college states seems to be effective, and then he can move on to wooing the popular vote.
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eumesmo Donating Member (46 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-04 11:01 PM
Response to Reply #4
7. I wouldn't put my faith in Rasmussen.
His methodology is suspect using machines, and was way off in 2000. It's quite likely at this point that Bush has a slight lead, but this is due in part to Nader drawing a large % of the vote. It's very possible that Nader will do worse in Nov. than he is doing now, so the numbers for Bush may be overstated. Plus undecideds tend to break for the challenger, so if Kerry is as close now in say October as he is now, that will bode well. The key states are Ohio, Penn and Florida. Whoever takes 2 out of those 3 will almost certainly win.
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Nicholas_J Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-25-04 01:39 AM
Response to Reply #7
12. Rasmussens polling
For the primaries and caucuses was right on the money, and they predicted Edwards big rise and then sudden fall off exactly. Rasmussens poll for at the national levels are almost mirroring the results from ARG, and SUSA, as well.
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Nimble_Idea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-04 02:23 PM
Response to Original message
5. where exactly did you get this data


and what is the meaning of this
Fox poll
Apr 48 43 5

last time i checked i think it was 42 43 -
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-04 02:27 PM
Response to Reply #5
6. From pollingreport.com The Fox poll just came out and is not
Edited on Sat Apr-24-04 02:39 PM by TruthIsAll
in the sample. I will update my list.

I just checked pollingreport. They now have the latest poll numbers but I am quite sure the previous poll had Kerry ahead 48-43 with Nader not included. I suspect they have revised prior polling numbers to show a closer race 43 Bush -42 Kerry.

I could be wrong. I did not take a snapshot of the prior poll, so I can't prove it. But I have checked my numbers very closely.

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KerryThatWeight Donating Member (25 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-04 11:13 PM
Response to Original message
8. Why should we care?
The only poll that matters is the one in November. John should be quite firm in his position by now so there should be no changes made to chase some stupid poll.
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rasputin1952 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-04 11:31 PM
Response to Reply #8
10. Welcome to DU!
:toast: :hi:
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Sean Reynolds Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-04 11:24 PM
Response to Original message
9. So you're saying only believe polls that show Kerry winning?
That makes a lot of sense.
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Capn Sunshine Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-04 11:33 PM
Response to Reply #9
11. Well, Sean the alternative is awful depressing , isn't it?
:nuke:
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John_H Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-25-04 11:45 AM
Response to Original message
13. You can alkways take TIA's #'s to the bank BUT the best way
to make all polls irrelevent is to bring two Dems who wouldn't ordinarily vote to the polls. This race is coming down to turnout.
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