Bush maintains lead over Kerry in PA (45-39-8) or (46-42 w/o Nader)

[TheStateChief]

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x10972.xml

President George W. Bush leads Democratic challenger John Kerry 45 – 39 percent among Pennsylvania voters, with 8 percent for independent candidate Ralph Nader, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 44 – 40 percent lead for President Bush, with 7 percent for Nader in a March 17 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University.

In a head-to-head race, without Nader, Bush leads Kerry 46 - 42 percent. In the two-candidate race, Republicans back Bush 80 – 10 percent, as Democrats back Kerry 73 – 17 percent and independent voters go with Kerry 48 – 39 percent.

With Nader in the race, independent voters shift to 40 percent for Kerry, 38 percent for Bush and 12 percent for Nader. Democrats shift to 69 percent for Kerry and 6 percent for Nader.

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Very weird poll. If you look at the results behind the match-up numbers if basically translates to: Everyone in Pennsylvania hates Bush, but they hate Kerry even more.

[rockymountaindem]

1. No, it translates to

"The only people who prefer Bush* are Republicans, therefore we will only poll them".

How could they get these results if the majority of people (Dems + Independents) prefer Kerry?

[Kathleen04]

2. I'm a little..

wary of University polls..is that justified or not? Are college polls genuinely accurate?

[ButterflyBlood]

7. usually not

they are cheaply done and don't take some complex factors into account.

[Kathleen04]

8. I figured as much..

Do people pay them to conduct polls or is it purely academic research?

[ButterflyBlood]

9. I think it's mostly just research

done by students in polling and marketing classes.

[Kathleen04]

11. Ok, thanks for the info..

I think it probably makes a difference seeing as they're not paid to be accurate.

[Nicholas_J]

15. Depends

Thhough Right now Kerry is ahead in the electoral college where he has 12 states with 193 Electoral votes, while Bush has 17 states with 180 EV. Kerry is very close to Bush or ahead of him in a number of states too close to call, All he needs to do is pull five of these states in (he is ahead in the states with the largest number of electoral votes) To beat Bush with 5 electoral votes to spare.

He is ahead of Bush in polls in Washington state, past the MoE, yet that state is considered too close to call because they dont consider a state secure until you are ahead by at least 10 points. Kerry is ahead by six in Washington. He is and has statyed a point or two ahead in Florida. If He can take Wisconsin, and Ohio, plus state to bring in 2 more small states, Kerry wins the electoral college with 17 states. A shame he couldnt take Texas, then he would win with 15 - 167 states.


Kerry's first strategy seems to be an electoral win, and thne to go for the popular vote. He keeps getting significantly ahead of Bush by laege percentage points in states with large numbers of electoral votes. There is a good chance that he will add Edwards to the ticket, as a recent poll there showed that Edwards would beat Bush in that staet, and that Kerry would ride on that if Edwrds was on the ticket.

With North Carolina, and the states noted above, Kerry could sew up the election.

A recent Mason Dixon Poll has Bush winning South Dakota, but it looks like Mason Dixon is running polls for the Bush public image as they ran one in Florida that showed Bush winning by a massive majority in that state as well when all other polls indicate that the race is within on to rwo points with Kerry having a small lead. I think Mason Dixon is running polls to make it look like Bush is a sure thing, and that generally has an effect on the undecided, as a lot of voters just prefer to vote for the candidate most likely to win, rather than on political ideology. Mason Dixon is also notorious for not polling minorities.

[bucknaked]

3. Damn the Amish!

Well, at least there is one place where we can hope Nader will get on the ballot> :p

[bookman]

4. Wake up Call

This poll is not from an unreliable source. Work needs to be done. I just can't believe the American public.

Dems need to get the truth out there, and get out the vote.

[PA-DEM]

5. Right, Nader is going to get 8%(eye's rolling)

He only got 2% in 2000. Stop with the amatuer college polls already.

[Josh]

6. Quinnipiac are usually quite reliable - as for Nader, it's now, not Nov. 2

What that means is that until people who WON'T vote for Bush settle on Kerry (assuming he can bring them over) they will answer 'Nader' when asked because he's not Bush or Kerry. Of course Nader won't get 8% in Pennsylvania, but when people havent' made up their mind, they'll often pick the third guy when asked in a poll.

[mot78]

10. Wasn't * winning PA at this point in 2000?

We have nothing to worry about yet, and Kerry hasn't even come on TV yet, which he should start doing with his new war-chest.

[PA-DEM]

12. yup

2000-04-02 - Bush now has narrow lead among Pennsylvania voters
Seven months before the presidential election, Texas Gov. George W. Bush held a narrow lead over Vice President Al Gore among Pennsylvania voters. But the latest Pennsylvania Poll suggests that Bush could significantly increase his chances of shifting the state to the Republican column by choosing Gov. Ridge as his running mate. Gore and Bush are both on the ballot in Tuesday's primary, but with their nominations wrapped up, their sights are already trained on November, when the state's 23 electoral votes, the fifth-largest total in the country, are up for grabs. In a survey of 416 registered voters who said they planned to vote in November, Bush led Gore 44 percent to 40 percent, assuming that Pat Buchanan was also on the ballot as the nominee of the Reform Party. Buchanan was supported by 5 percent and 11 percent were undecided. Substituting Ross Perot, the Reform Party's founder, for Buchanan produced a similar result, although Perot did slightly better than Buchanan. In that hypothetical matchup, the results were Bush 43 percent, Gore 38 percent, Perot 8 percent and undecided 11 percent. Bush's lead, in both scenarios, was within the poll's margin of error. But with the addition of Ridge, the GOP ticket fared significantly better. A Bush-Ridge ticket leads Gore by 47 percent to 33 percent, with 5 percent favoring the Reform Party and 15 percent undecided. The Pennsylvania Poll was conducted for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research Inc. from Tuesday through Thursday. The theoretical margin of error for the results of the 416 interviews was plus or minus 5 percent.

[TheDonkey]

13. Kerry really has done the minimal in PA no surprise

he needs to come down here and move about or get some of his friends.

[JI7]

14. Kerry has just recently started campaigning in the state

i think once the primary is over, he will start campaigning there more. right now a lot of the attention is on the republican senate primary. the numbers aren't too bad considering he hasn't done much there yet. his wife is from there as her late husband was senator there so she should know a lot about the state and be able to help out.