DU Election Projection Exercise #458,129.37.G.2 (subject to change)

[IDemo]

If You Can't Beat'em, Disjoin'em

At this point I think it is safe to say, at least for those who do not think it's possible they might meet Elvis during a UFO abduction, that the only pertinent question is "when will Obama become the official nominee?". Short of Hillary being videotaped walking on water or Barack strangling a baby duck during a live interview, there is simply no way she can garner the percentage of pledged delegates required in the remaining races to overcome his lead.

And, despite the announcement by her campaign that the on again/off again pursuit of pledged delegates is on again, it is completely unrealistic to believe such a gambit would be successful. Super delegates have already been trickling into Obama's camp on a daily basis, and that trend is not going to be miraculously reversed. Pledged delegates, those who ostensibly represent the will of primary and caucus voters, are much less likely to reverse sides.

The Super D's are not going to make a sudden last second dash back to Hillary from a smoke filled room.

Pledged delegates are not going to bite their lips in confusion and reverse the mandates handed them by voters.

The remaining primary states are not going to have a Hillary epiphany and hand her a string of 65% plus victories.

Barack Obama is not going to withdraw.

I think what we may be looking at is a convention floor kung fu match over Florida and Michigan. Barring a re-vote before then resulting in overwhelming numbers for Clinton (still likely not enough to sway the Super D's), she can make the claim that a great injustice has been done; deny the validity of an Obama nomination, and announce an independent run. Which would result in the Mother of all Kitchen Sinks being aimed squarely at any chance for a Democratic win in November.

And on a bright new morning in 2012, in her own mind anyway, she can begin putting together another attempt. This time with no shining stars like Barack Obama to make a mess of her plans. And hopefully, with a very forgetful Democratic base.

[IDemo]

1. A kick for the evening crowd