Final Results are in - Obama wins Mississippi by over 100,000

[thevoiceofreason]

The last precincts have just trickled in.

Obama: 255,809

Clinton 155,686

That is amazing. A few hundred votes short of the popular vote in Texas.

Could Mississippi be in play this fall?

[Renew Deal]

1. And the fantasy of Hillary catching up in popular vote dies a little more

:hi:

[feedingfrenzy]

13. MS will go McCain in the GE

sorry to rain on your Obarade

[democrattotheend]

18. So will Texas

But somehow Clinton's 4-point victory there was a big win and hugely significant.

[elehhhhna]

40. lol no we will not. TX was a staunchly DEM state for aged and it's

purple now.

Just you wait.

10% of the US military is from Texas and we ain't happy about this war, among other things.

[thevoiceofreason]

26. But a hard fought race, using the 50 state strategy

Could possibly swing another representative. Either way, it helps!

[sniffa]

46. Welcome back

:hi:

[Cha]

48. You're not rainin' on anything..

[jgraz]

37. No it doesn't. That's why they call it a fantasy

And that's why WE call it a freaking nightmare.

[leftofcool]

2. When was the last time you know of that Mississippi voted blue?

[Alter Ego]

4. Why does this matter?

[bicentennial_baby]

6. Jimmy Carter, I think

[ORDagnabbit]

8. when was Hasterts seat in Democratic hands?

[scheming daemons]

16. 1976.... also the last time the nation was this hungry for a change in Washington...

....

[Catherina]

23. If anyone can make Mississippi go blue, it's Obama.

I'm not saying he can but chances are increased.

[thevoiceofreason]

27. 1976 - Carter

The point is to fight on all fronts

[Alter Ego]

3. Well done Mississippi!

You've done what my state couldn't--vote for Obama.

Goddamn Massachusetts.

[Recursion]

5. Yes, it can. MS is a conservative blue state

They've had only two Republican governors since Reconstruction.

They've had a majority-blue House delegation except from 1997-1999 since Reconstruction.

It's a conservative blue state. They're ours if we work for them.

[democrattotheend]

10. I don't know about that

I took a look at the numbers yesterday. With 37% of the population being African American, it seems like a state that should be in play. But in 2004, John Kerry and John Edwards, two white males, lost the white vote 85-15 in Mississippi, and that number might be even worse with an African American or a woman (or both) on the ticket.

There are two ways to look at that number: one interpretation is that Obama would do even worse because he's black (and you might be able to make the same case about Clinton because she's a woman). But there's another way to look at it. If Kerry and Edwards only got 15% white voters, that might mean that we have pretty much bottomed out among whites in Mississippi. Of the 15% left, how many more would vote Republican just because Obama's black or because Clinton is a woman?

Kerry and Edwards never campaigned in Mississippi, as far as I know. If they had, maybe they could have gotten their share of the white vote up a little. That, combined with higher black turnout, and maybe higher turnout among young people, could potentially move the state from Solid Republican to Likely Republican, maybe even to a leaner. If Obama could accomplish that higher turnout, and manage not to bleed any more white support (which may not be hard to do, given how low it was in 2004), maybe he could put the state in play. I don't have any illusions that we could win it, but if we can make it close enough for the RNC to spend money on ads and for John McCain to have to campaign there, that in and of itself would be a victory.

Still, the numbers from yesterday's exit poll are not encouraging, particularly the percentage of Clinton voters who would be dissatisfied with Obama as the nominee. I definitely think there was a Limbaugh effect in Mississippi yesterday that skewed some of these questions a little (why the hell else would 15% of people who voted for Clinton be dissatisfied if she got the nomination?) But judging by the exit polls, it's likely that Obama would bleed even more white support because he's black, making it hard to put the state in play even with a higher African American turnout.

[Recursion]

29. I think this party fundamentally misreads blue dogs

If Kerry and Edwards only got 15% white voters, that might mean that we have pretty much bottomed out among whites in Mississippi.

Blue dogs are economic populists and social conservatives. Except for Mike Huckabee, no candidate offers that. Neither party has these guys on the issues. They abandoned our party in 1994 when Gingrich ran a message that was economically populist and socially conservative -- by that point, we had lost most of our populist cred.

There is absolutely no reason we cannot get these voters back. Now, will Mississippi give its electors to Obama or Clinton? I'm not so sure. But, Lott's seat is up for replacement, and we can win it if we run an upticket candidate with coattails; we just need another Stennis.

[NJSecularist]

7. Mississippi will be the last state to go blue this fall.

[tekisui]

11. Last, at number 40!

[Exilednight]

15. You don't get around much do you?

Ever been to Utah, Alabama, or Oklahoma? Those will be the last states to ever turn Blue.

[NJSecularist]

33. All three will go blue before Mississippi.

[Exilednight]

34. Are you serious? Mississippi has three times the amount of African Americans than the national.....

average. There is no reason why we should lose this state election after election other than the fact that the DLC likes the 17 state solution.


I'm going to bookmark this thread. If Obama gets the nomination, we will see if he can turn Mississippi, or how close he can come.

[Texas Hill Country]

9. actually, though he won the state, the numbers are actually not really good news

he won because he got 90% of the black vote...

The problem is that he only got like 20 something percent of the white vote...


Big problem for a reach across the lines guy... punches huge holes in that whole idea...

[tekisui]

12. And Hillary got 77% of the puke vote.

It wouldn't have been nearly as close if not for that. Obama has no problem winning the all so sacred white vote. He has done it across the country. MS may be a little behind in race relations, but this is not a problem fro Obama at large.

Hillary, however has not done well with the black vote, or the youth vote anywhere.

[democrattotheend]

14. It's Mississippi

I was disappointed that he only got 26% of the white vote (I had hoped for 30), but I wasn't surprised. He is winning over white voters in a lot of places but Mississippi is the deep, deep South. The racial spread was similar in Alabama last month.

I am kind of disappointed by posts like yours, which carry the implication that the votes of white voters are somehow more important or more relevant in judging his success. Votes are votes, and for you to imply that it only matters how he does among white voters is kind of offensive.

[ellisonz]

25. This has been happening since before South Carolina.

Clinton campaign: White voters are issue voters. Black people only vote for a candidate out of blind loyalty or because the candidate is black.

The Clinton campaign lost it's share of the block vote and it's pissed.

[FrenchieCat]

28. He got 26% of the White vote.....

But in addition, it appears that Hillary got 24% of the Repug vote who were voting not for her, but against Obama for the General. So in essence that took away from Obama's calculation of the White vote by skewing it toward Hillary. So, increase his vote get by 25% and he actually got 49% of the bonifide Democratic/Independent White vote in Mississippi. I know it is hard to believe, but here are the facts:

[Qutzupalotl]

17. This thread could explain a lot about that.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5042792&mesg_id=5042792

[scheming daemons]

19. If Obama gets 95% of the black vote, and 25% of the white vote in MS vs McCain... Obama wins....

[democrattotheend]

31. Depends on black turnout

And 25% of the white vote will be a tough climb. Kerry only got 15%, and he's a white male. It may be doable but it'll be pretty tough.

[Seen the light]

20. Yeah, because Alaska, Utah, North Dakota, Vermont, and Idaho have huge black populations

:eyes:

[Starbucks Anarchist]

21. And Iowa is Harlem with cornfields.

;)

[Exilednight]

22. If not what percentage of going voters vote for him, it's how many he can turn out to vote.......

We know he can get 90% of the black vote, but if he can get 90% of the African-American community, who is voting age, to turn out and vote, then he can win Mississippi.

Demographically he would have the best chance of winning.

[Catherina]

24. Are you saying White people won't hold their nose for one damn election? n/t

[Recursion]

30. They did for decades

Neither party appeals to blue dogs entirely; the GOP got a lock on a lot of the deep south (though, I repeat, they only got a majority of Mississippi's House districts for 2 years) when they ran an economic populist message along with a social conservative message, and that only worked after our party had given up on populism.

[Bad Thoughts]

38. I doubt Obama would win

The vote is no indication, since it did not come close to what Bush received in 200 or 2004. He didn't even beat Gore 2000 or Kerry 2004. However, getting MS dems fired up might force McCain to spend scant resources there, which would be a boon.

[RDANGELO]

32. and this is a relatively small state.

To give some perspective, Clinton, won Ohio by 200,000.

[book_worm]

35. that comes to 62.1% for Obama

[TacticalPeek]

36. Final delegates: O-19, C-14 for net +5

I've finally found a working definition of success for Clinton last night: she beat Chuck Todd's estimate of Obama's minimum delegate take by two. Todd said going in to last night that Obama would net gain 7 at least.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#MS

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2008/by_state/MS_Page_0311_D.html?SITE=MSJADELN&SECTION=POLITICS


I imagine this must mean that she carried the 1st district although I haven't turned up a link to cite. If so, way to go.

[suston96]

39. So a 63% popular vote yields Obama 5 more delegates than Clinton? Now that's a landslide. nt

[thevoiceofreason]

41. Those aren't final (not certified). In fact, the number will be 20-13.

CNN has it wrong -- can you imagine that?

And, BTW, Hillary's "unbelievably huge win in the Texas primary?" Net 4 delegates

[thevoiceofreason]

42. She carried the first district

But actually lost the 4th (CNN has that wrong)

So, it was

1: 3-2 Clinton (barely)

2: 5-2 Obama (almost 6-1)

3: 3-2 Obama (2% away from 4-1)

4: 3-2 Obama (by 200 votes or so -- CNN seems to call this the other way)

Overall: 7-4 Obama (threshold was 59%)

Total: 20-13

[TacticalPeek]

45. 19-14

net zero

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3223754&mesg_id=3223754

:patriot:

[Yukari Yakumo]

43. Not matter how you argue this...

This was an ass-whooping by Obama.

Clinton's meager gains from "Firewall Tuesday"? Gone. And then some.
And now she deludes herself that PA will turn things around. Nuh-uh. Any gains there will be undone by Indiana and North Carolina. This highlights the failure of the Clinton campaign, absolute arrogance that big wins will get her the nom. Unfortunately for her, that hasn't happened, and she failed to realize smaller state can undo any gains from her "big state" wins. And what kind of argument is "she should be the nom 'cause she wins the big states"? Um... excuse me, but with the exception of Texas, most "big states" are Democratic strongholds. "Big states" are not what is important, "Swing states" are. Guess who's winning most of those? Barack Obama.

Clinton should realize the game is over. She should throw in the towel and salvage any political capital she has left.

[Thrill]

44. A motivated black vote in November is the Republicans worst nightmare

[theboss]

47. It doesn't count. Too many black people voted.

Their votes should really only count for 3/5 of Hillary's vote.

That means Obama got 153,485.

Congratulations, Senator Clinton, on your victory.