OMG! There's a WV Poll today! (but it no good though)

[Mattforclark]

I'm happy that there is a poll, but unhappy at its results. I am so conflicted here. I don't know what to do!



http://www.rasmussenreports.com/West%20Virginia_April.h...

"April 18, 2004--In West Virginia, President Bush leads John Kerry by five percentage points, 46% to 41%. Four years ago, Bush won the state by six points over Al Gore, 52% to 46%.
The Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted Thursday night, April 15. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points, with a 95% level of confidence.

Fifty-four percent (54%) of West Virginia voters have a favorable opinion of Bush compared to just 47% for Kerry.

Additionally, 55% of West Virginia voters approve of the way that Bush is performing his role as President. This is a bit higher than the President's national Job Approval ratings."



But it's a rasmussen poll...

[UrbScotty]

1. Not bad, actually, six and a half months out (nt)

[Mattforclark]

3. But the last WV poll was a tie... n/t

[UrbScotty]

10. Just remember, a lot can change between now and November 2. (nt)

[boneygrey]

21. Don't worry about Rasmussen

They do automated polls so you could get a child responding. Besides, their predictions were horrible in 2000.

[sallyseven]

2. It's West Virginia for god sake

they are all related.

[Mattforclark]

4. Dukakis won West Virginia by 5 points, for god's sake.

Dukakis!!!

[Mel]

5. they are all related

you sound like one of those 'limousine liberals'

[Name removed]

7. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Leilani]

8. Thats disgusting!

& that is why they just MAY vote for Bush!

[JohnKleeb]

9. they are a lot more smart than my state is

pretty democratic traditionally, broke away from my state (Virginia) because we had slavery, very pro union, united miners of america woere big around here. Also its a pretty ethnic state if I recall, many Italians, Polish, etc.

[boneygrey]

20. West Virginia

Where the men are men and the sheep are nervous.

[DeaconBlues]

6. Its a close contest

A little more attention and I believe that Kerry can carry the state.

As for the comment about all West Virginians being related - with attitudes like this, no wonder Democrats have such a hard time in rural areas.

[WVhill]

11. Except for the governor, most folks thought the T shirt was funny.

The poll confirms what I've been picking up. For whatever reason, the Iraq war is a winner for Bush in this state. West Virginians have the highest per capita rate of enlistment throughout history.

Don't ask me why. That's just the way it is. Units returning from Iraq are getting huge receptions for fulfilling their duty. Seniors in particular in this state are equating Iraqis to Germans and Japanese.

The other issue dragging Kerry down is his support for gun control. I wouldn't be surprised if on a per capita basis West Virginians were at top of the list for amount of guns owned. An unusual estate auction is one that only has a couple of guns. The state allows anyone meeting federal regulations to own any weapon. Concealed carry is no problem as long as you meet the requirements.

I knew Gore wouldn't win West Virginia in the last election when a petition showed up in stores asking Byrd and Rockefeller to stop the use of 1040s to register guns. You probably don't believe that but I saw those petitions everywhere. That was before the NRA had Heston stop in the state to speak for Bush. The NRA was wasting their time. West Virginia was already wrapped up for Bush.

Kerry's support for clean coal burning technologies to increase the demand for coal is sound ecologically but it presents a problem for the environmentalists in this state that are fighting mountaintop removals. In short lots of folks aren't impressed with Kerry. Dean from Vermont with no gun control laws of any kind, IMO, would have had West Virginia without much effort.

[doc03]

12. WV is going to be hard sell for Kerry

1. Clinton and Gore betrayed the steel industry after promising to
stop illegal imports in 1992.
2. Bush put the steel tariffs on and saved several thousand steel
jobs.
3. Guns.
4. Kerry is a eastern liberal or perceived as one.
5. The attitude displayed by some posters here from the east coast
that think everyone in middle America are hicks.
P.S. If Gore would have carried WV Florida wouldn't have mattered.

[fujiyama]

13. Bush slapped tarrifs

and then REMOVED them.

[doc03]

17. When Kerry was asked about the tariffs he criticized Bush

for removing them, but when asked if he would put them back on he said no. That's the typical Kerry position, he ain't got one. I live in Ohio myself and the steel tariffs saved my job and my pension. The people around here are very bitter toward the Democrats because of Clinton's abandoning the steel industry after promising to stop the illegal imports. I am trying to find a reason to vote for Kerry.

[JohnKleeb]

14. Dukakis was an eastern liberal and won

personally I think we can win it.

[Lexingtonian]

15. WV was never going to be easy to win

Bush won it in '00 with 53%. These numbers suggest he's getting ~51% at the moment (splitting Undecideds 2:1 in favor of the challenger). A 2% Democratic shift over the four years is fairly in line with trend in the region, really (though national average is expected to be ~3%.).

Of all the winnable '00 Red States, WV seems to me to be one of the hardest of the six or so that are real possibilities. It's up there with Arizona, at the limits of Democratic reach. New Hampshire, Ohio, and Florida, maybe even Nevada, appear to be easier pickups and Kerry only needs one or two of them.

You can talk about the Christian Right and guns and steel tariffs and enlisted people and such as the key thing in WV. (Not a whole lot of black or Hispanic voters, either.) But that's all another way of saying something that is more easily put this way: the part of the New Economy that has found its way there hasn't done much- changed anything substantially for the better- in the state yet.

The Bush vote in West Virginia was concentrated in the middle of the state, in the Second House District containing Charleston. Gore won the other two House Districts, along the Ohio and the Virginia border, but just barely. He lost the Second by 60:40- that's where the state is probably going to be won or lost, again.

[WI_DEM]

16. latest statewide polls have not been too good

in Oregon,West Virginia, NJ, Wisconsin--but it is early.

[fujiyama]

18. three of the four

are swing states. NJ is in the bad though. That poll was pure and simple BS.

[GOPBasher]

19. I hope you're right.

I really hope you're right about NJ. That should be a Democratic stronghold. If we don't win NJ by 10% - 15%, we'll lose nationally in a landslide. I hope that poll was B.S., as you said. As you said, the rest of those are swing states, and are expected to be close.

[fujiyama]

22. I have no doubt about NJ

If NY is giving Kerry a lead of 15+ points right now in the polls, NJ is close behind. It was one of Gore's best states.

Plus, the state has been treading democratic for several years. Even with the Toricelli mess, Lautenburg won easilly. Unfortunately, from what I've heard, Gov. McGreevey is somewhat unpopular and there have been some scandals and whatnot. I get the impression that NJ politics are extremely corrupt.

Either way, this isn't a state I'm worried about. The only state in the northeast I'd be somewhat worried about is PA, because it's going to be extremely difficult to win without it.