States that don't count in the GE for Democrats.

[seaglass]

I'm basing this on historical results of Presidential elections and looked only at primary states:

AL-O Last year voted for D = 1976, 1960
AZ-C Last year voted for D = 1996, 1948
GA-O Last year voted for D = 1992, 1980, 1976
ID-O Last year voted for D = 1964, 1948
LA-O Last year voted for D = 1996, 1992, 1976
MS-O Last year voted for D = 1976, 1956
NE-O Last year voted for D = 1964, 1936
ND-O Last year voted for D = 1964, 1936
OK-O Last year voted for D = 1964, 1948
SC-O Last year voted for D = 1976, 1960
TX-C Last year voted for D = 1976, 1968, 1964
UT-O Last year voted for D = 1964
VA-O Last year voted for D = 1964, 1948
AK-O Last year voted for D = 1964
AR-C Last year voted for D = 1996, 1992
CO-O Last year voted for D = 1992, 1964
KS-O Last year voted for D = 1964, 1936
MO-O Last year voted for D = 1996, 1992, 1976
NV-C Last year voted for D = 1996, 1992, 1964
TN-C Last year voted for D = 1996, 1992, 1976
WY-O Last year voted for D = 1964, 1948

I've put some of the southern states on here that have voted for a D as recently as 1996 because it seems that it takes a southern candidate to get them to vote D - I could be wrong. I also didn't look at MI and FL.

It would be wonderful if this election was transformative for us like when Reagan ran but I don't see it - I think McCain has a lot of appeal to Independents and even though many Republicans don't like him,they will march in lockstep and vote for him. I think both of the candidates running for the Democratic nomination are extremely divisive.

http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/

Sorry, I won't be able to respond for a while - I have to run to work.

[DemVet]

1. Virginia is just one example where you're wrong.

Virginia has a very good chance of going D in this GE.

[seaglass]

2. Is that your opinion or do you have something to back it up?

I'm just looking at historical patterns, if you see some facts that would point to a different result, I'm open to learning.

[PVnRT]

3. Shifting demographics in northern Virginia

recent statewide election gains by Democrats, Jim Webb's win two years ago...

[rox63]

5. VA has recently elected 2 Dem governors, a Dem Senator

and will likely elect another Dem Senator (Mark Warner) this fall.

[seaglass]

6. I hope you're right. The margins in 2000 and 2004 for Pres.

don't look so good (8%) but in '96 it was less than 2% margin. I guess we'll see :-)

[DFW]

4. Uless we totally self-destruct during the primaries,

I'd be surprised to hear that absolutely none of those states listed
are not in play for us this time. I think states like Virginia, Colorado,
and Missouri are possibles, and even Texas is not out of reach, although
a Democratic candidate might need to spend more time there to win the
state than they can afford to take away from campaigning in other states
that they can pick up with less time and money spent.

I also would not count out Republican stealth plans (read: continued electoral
fraud) for Ohio or even California, although I don't think Arnie will participate
knowingly in Blackwell-type stuff. After all, he needs neither the ego trip nor
the money.

[Clovis Sangrail]

7. I think a lot of those can go dem

things change... but a scorched earth campaign is going to really reduce the likelihood of it.

[LWolf]

8. My state counts.

I'll hold out hope for a brokered convention and a different nominee, so that a Democratic nominee can earn my vote.

[NightWatcher]

9. there is the flaw in your thinking. should we give up on the states or try to win them

If you give Hill the nom, she will ignore those states.
If Obama wins the nom, he can might flip a few of the states to the "D" column.

Fight or flight?
There are 50 states, lets pick the candidate who will try to win all 50.....not just the big blue states.

[seaglass]

10. With finite resources, either nominee is going to fight for

states that are possible and I think there are some on that list - it would be poor judgment to waste much resource on states that are next to impossible.

[book_worm]

11. so your one of those advocates that the Dems only try to win with 20 states or something?

How is it that Virginia, Nevada, Colorado have Obama ahead of McCain according to recent polls by SUSA? And that he is statistically in a dead heat with McCain in Texas? He's only five points down in Kansas and statistically tied with McCain in North Dakota? Meanwhile some of the states that "matter" according to Hillary supporters like Washington, Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin HRC is losing to McCain.

And anybody who writes off Missouri this early in the game doesn't know a thing about politics.

[seaglass]

12. First, it is still early and they have not gone head to head so

until we have a nominee I wouldn't make bets on any polling Clinton v McCain or Obama v McCain.

In my head I was counting MO in my South grouping because of the wins in 96, 92 and 76, I should have been clearer. I see that the margins in 2000 were very slim between D/R - not so much in 2004.

I'm not advocating anything I'm just stating that based on historical trends, many of these states are nowhere near the D column.

Well, I guess I am advocating that if any of these states are clear losers, no matter who the nominee, spend more resources in the borderline states.