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MAP: "Voters in sixteen states may decide the presidency"

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Skinner ADMIN Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-18-04 09:14 AM
Original message
MAP: "Voters in sixteen states may decide the presidency"
Edited on Sun Apr-18-04 09:20 AM by Skinner
Acting on a tip from WesDem, I found this map on the Internet this morning. This is how the National Committe for an Effective Congress sees the presidential race this year.

The source is a PDF on the NCEC website:

http://www.ncec.org/publications/newsletter/january_feb...

I thought you all might be interested to see this. It's got all the Electoral votes for each state, too, so you can do the math yourself. Looks like it's going to be close this year...





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MAlibdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-18-04 09:15 AM
Response to Original message
1. I'll be in NH starting in mid to late september...
Doin wot I can
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Timbuk3 Donating Member (727 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-18-04 09:28 AM
Response to Original message
2. Interactive map
John Edwards still has this interactive electoral map up on his site.

http://www.johnedwards2004.com/map /

It's interesting to see what happens under various scenarios.

BTW, I don't think that NH is in play. Voter turnout for the primary was too strong.

NV is mad as hell about Yucca Mountain, and isn't likely to go Bush.

LA has gone Democrat in every election since 2000, even though Bush and his band of thugs campaigned for the Democrat's opponents every time, so LA isn't a Bush lock, it's a "battleground state".

I always come back to the same thing, though. This election is far too important to relax, ever. Until the failed leader is removed from the White House, we need every vote we can get.

(BTW, I have the actual vote counts by state from 2000 if anyone is interested.)
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Political_Junkie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-18-04 09:51 AM
Response to Reply #2
3. I'd be interested in the vote counts for Maine, Timbuk.
thanks
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dontstopthere Donating Member (65 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-18-04 12:58 PM
Response to Reply #2
14. if LA is a battleground then that means
that all of MIMAL is available to either party. If anyone wins MIMAL its all over...
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Hippo_Tron Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-18-04 04:04 PM
Response to Reply #2
17. LA is blue but will lean Bush...
The democrats here are "conservative democrats", many DINOs by national standards. Basically, Republicans have no control over the state government but our state still has a fairly bad economy, a poor education system, etc.
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billhos Donating Member (58 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-18-04 09:58 AM
Response to Original message
4. there's always surprises
How many people thought New Hmapshire, Nevada, Florida and West Virginia would be in play as they were last time. you always have too watch out for possibilities and problems. Last time Gore won New Jersey by a landslide. But, a recent poll showed Bush winning it in a three way race. I am not saying don't watch these states, but you have too keep your eye out on others as well.
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fujiyama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-18-04 08:08 PM
Response to Reply #4
19. New Jersey
Edited on Sun Apr-18-04 08:12 PM by fujiyama
isn't in play. That poll was nonsense. A state doesn't swing 15 points in one election, that too, when a senator from a nearby state is running. Of course, turnout is key. GOTV is extremely important.

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TN al Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-18-04 10:24 AM
Response to Original message
5. Rats...
...I thought I lived in a battleground state.
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onehandle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-18-04 10:38 AM
Response to Original message
6. Ohio is going to be the game this time.
I hope to be there on the ground.
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LoZoccolo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-18-04 10:44 AM
Response to Original message
7. Illinois
Even though Illinois is a blue state (I've heard from somewhere else that it's pretty close though), it is surrounded by a lot of grey ones; don't forget there are opportunities to get involved in these bordering states for a weekend or whatever if you live in Illinois.
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fujiyama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-18-04 08:11 PM
Response to Reply #7
20. Illinois
Edited on Sun Apr-18-04 08:12 PM by fujiyama
gave Gore one of his largest margins of victory.

Bush won't be carrying either NJ or IL unless he's winning in a landslide...and he won't be winning in a landslide this fall. Of course, turnout is key, so dems can't get lazy...
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Submariner Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-18-04 10:47 AM
Response to Original message
8. What happened to Oregon?
When I went back to school in the early '70s Oregon was, if I recall correctly, a liberal bastion. First on protecting the environment, first with the bottle bill (I think), and other progressive positions. I'm surprised it's a battleground state and not solidly in our camp.

Any Oregonians here know what's up?
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Skinner ADMIN Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-18-04 10:55 AM
Response to Reply #8
9. I worked on a campaign there in 1995.
The eastern part of the state is very conservative. Once you leave Portland and Eugene, it's a sea of red.

Here's the 2000 presidential vote by county for the entire country. Check out Oregon...

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Submariner Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-18-04 12:49 PM
Response to Reply #9
13. Oregon and Massachusetts
were big deal states for environmental protection during the first Earth Day in 1970, and I guess that stuck in my mind. I guess the McGovern loss there in '72 should've woken me up. Thanks for the educating graphic. We have work to do.
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Waverley_Hills_Hiker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-18-04 05:48 PM
Response to Reply #9
18. That map is really interesting..NM & NV?
Looks like there is a potential pick up in Nevada as the Democratic county is also the most populous county. And it looks like the Dems have alot of support (at least based on geography) in New Mexico.
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West Coast Democrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-19-04 12:50 PM
Response to Reply #9
28. But the red (bush*) Oregon counties are minimally populated........
as are the majority of Bush* counties throughout the nation. Why does this map care so much about square mileage?
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Eurobabe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-18-04 10:57 AM
Response to Original message
10. we may have to move
seriously looking at OH, (hubby looking at IT jobs there) might as well make it count for November! VA going Bu$h anyhow...
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JohnLocke Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-18-04 11:30 AM
Response to Original message
11. We might win NC is VP is Edwards; LA if VP Landrieu.
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citizen snips Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-18-04 12:09 PM
Response to Reply #11
12. I agree.
We can win some of the south if we will not ignore it.
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Hippo_Tron Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-18-04 03:57 PM
Response to Reply #11
16. Landrieu won't do shit in LA...
She won re-election because of the small democratic majority and because her opponent was terrible.

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mzmolly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-18-04 01:51 PM
Response to Original message
15. Im in MN and prepared to help oust *
:hi:
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gemlake Donating Member (535 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-18-04 09:04 PM
Response to Original message
21. Missouri
Kerry definitely has a shot here, but it will be difficult, given the conservative rural areas. Ashcroft will help Kerry win more votes than Gephardt as VP would. Remember--Missourians picked a dead man over Ashcroft!
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salonghorn70 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-18-04 10:12 PM
Response to Reply #21
23. Edwards in Missouri
Would Edwards be of any help in the rural areas? In Missouri would you rather have Edwards or Gephardt? Would any other Democrat help in Missouri?
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gemlake Donating Member (535 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-18-04 11:01 PM
Response to Reply #23
24. Personally, I'd rather have Edwards
Edwards brings a lot of energy to the Kerry campaign, but I don't think he'll change the mind of any rural voters in Missouri. Getting out the vote in the urban areas will be important for Kerry.
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CabalBuster Donating Member (282 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-18-04 09:21 PM
Response to Original message
22. Kerry just lost the Muslim/Arab vote and will regret it in November
See this recent Zogby poll that says Nader gets 20% of the Arab American vote in four key states (and if you read the details (pdf), it's 26% in Pa and Mich. More of the votes come from Kerry than Bush, which could end up tipping a close state.

http://www.zogby.com/Soundbites/ReadClips.dbm?ID=7858
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dae Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-18-04 11:26 PM
Response to Original message
25. Louisiana is definitely in play for Kerry and he has already spent time
here campaigning. Governor Blanco endorsed him early and Senators Breaux and Landrieu have endorsed and campaigned with him as well. The same players that lined up against the Bush/Rove machine to re-elect Sen. Landrieu are lining up just as solidly behind Sen. Kerry.
:dem:
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amazona Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-19-04 12:57 PM
Response to Reply #25
29. I agree with you, this map may be off
Louisiana is definitely in play, how do they assume it is going to go for Bush? Bush has done nothing but stab us in the back, prime exhibit A was stabbing us in the back for our Bicentennial of the Louisiana Purchase last year. He also refused to declare one of our serious storm emergencies in 2003 a federal emergency while in years gone by, less serious storms were declared federal emergencies as a matter of course. And the whole "let's hate the French" thing is not good for us, a lot of our Acadiana tourism comes from France. The more trouble Bush stirs up, the more he picks our pockets. I don't think we need to assume that everyone in Louisiana is too stupid to notice this.
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democratreformed Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-19-04 08:36 AM
Response to Original message
26. Ron Oliver, the Chairman of our state's Democratic party talked
about this Saturday night at our county's fundraiser. I was excited to hear that the Kerry campaign will be visiting our state. Also, Bill Richardson will be the speaker at the state party's J-J Day dinner on May 1.
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CWebster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-19-04 10:27 AM
Response to Original message
27. Being from PA- our vote doesn't mean zip in the primaries
Unfortunately, the states that were railroaded into chosing the "most electible" in the primaries should've left those of us in the battleground states something worth fighting for, instead of fighting against, in the General.

Is Kerry really the best we can do and the only alternativeto Bush? This country is... pathetic.
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