I think we can *AFFORD* to wait until after PA, but if Hillary loses PA

[Hawkeye-X]

then she has to step down and concede the primary to Obama, but even if Hillary narrowly loses or wins, and does not make any dent to the pledged delegates. I am of the opinion that after the PA primary, it'll be over - one way or another, then the DNC has to start fundraising for the GE and focus on the convention and the GE itself. Who's with me?

Hawkeye-X

[skipos]

1. She will win PA, but Obama will win NC and effectively undo her victory.

We know Hillary has no intention of getting the nomination via pledged delegates.

[Hawkeye-X]

3. Well, Obama's got the ground game going and the mo' of course,

so even if Hillary leads PA by 20, he'll catch up and win - this goes same for Texas and OH (There's already reports of election fraud YET again there, so there's a chance Obama may have won)

Hawkeye-X

[Skip Intro]

12. Whoever wins, it will be via superdelegates. Obama can't win without them either.

[LakeSamish706]

2. Sorry, but with the Clinton campaign that is not likely to happen... She/They have...

pushed the envelope from having to win Texas/Ohio with big results to "oh well, it will all come together" in some other state, in some other month...

[Hawkeye-X]

5. I'm giving Clinton until PA to end it.

Otherwise, I'm calling Dean and begging him to personally step in and personally kick Clinton out of the primaries (That means dumping even more SD's towards Obama to reach that magical number).

Hawkeye-X

[anamandujano]

8. Or you can start another unique thread on the subject.

[cali]

21. how adorable of you to post a picture of yourself! n/t

[papau]

10. If she wins PA I think she should get the nomination as I want to win in Nov and red state

victories by Obama - by caucus no less - are not reassuring.

But if Hillary loses PA she has to step down as Obama will finally have shown that he can have an easier time that Hillary in a must win big state not his home state.

[Spider Jerusalem]

22. And blue state victories by Clinton ARE reassuring?

You have to have brain damage if you think all those blue states will magically vote Republican in November. (Pennsylvania hasn't voted Republican in a Presidential election since 1988, FYI.)

[scheming daemons]

4. No, I don't agree...

..you are putting it all on PA.

That's just what Clinton wants.


She WANTS you to think that PA is the be-all and end-all. It is not. PA represents only 1/4 of the remaining delegates to dole out.


Don't put it all in that basket. At this point, Hillary will probably win PA. Even if she does, that is not enough...when you consider that Obama's gains in NC will offset any win she gets.


It's about the TOTAL delegates...and that is the only thing it is about.


Harold Ickes, in December, made a statement that the popular vote and the number of states won does not matter... that ONLY delegates matter.

I'm holding him to it.

[Hawkeye-X]

9. Um, and after 43 states and 4 territories (after PA) and 7 states and 1

territory remaining, how the hell is Clinton going to win? I'd like to know. Plus, the SD's will give Obama the magical number he needs. Many SD's will be deserting Hillary after PA.

Hawkeye-X

[scheming daemons]

13. She wants the media narrative for the next six weeks to be that PA is ALL that matters....

...

Then if she wins, they'll push the whole "buyer's remorse" meme again.

[Exilednight]

6. I'll give her PA if she wins by a huge, and I mean huge, margin. Like 75% to 25% - anything less...

and she should be gone.

[JVS]

7. No. She would need a blowout in PA to get momentum, and 6 weeks of party bashing is not OK.

The supers should step in and send her packing.

[XemaSab]

11. I'm not entirely with you

assuming that Obama takes 60% in Mississippi tomorrow, she would literally have to take 90% of the vote in Pennsylvania to close the gap.

If she were to win Pennsylvania even by a 60-40 blowout, she'd still be over 100 points behind, and she'd need a solid 60% in EVERY state PLUS 60% of the superdelegates to take the nomination.

[Exilednight]

15. Actually she would need 86%. No delegates are awarded to a candidate that finishes below 15% ......

unless the number of candidates prevents anyone from reaching 15%.

[XemaSab]

16. Good to know

but my point remains. So far the only state she's gotten 70% of the vote in is Arkansas.

She's gotten slightly over 55% in I think 4 other states (OK, NY, RI, and MA), but she hasn't broken 60.

We're talking levels of support that she just hasn't seen at all in this race.

[rocktivity]

14. Unless she wins PA with at least 62% of the vote, she WON'T win.

She'll have to win ALL the remaining contests by that percentage just to pull even--that's the only way she'd have a legitimate case to plead with the superdelegates.

:headbang:
rocknation

[johnnydrama]

17. even if i give her

Even if I give her healthy numbers in the next 4 contests on the delegate counter, she still only gains 8 delegates.

MS 60-40 Obama
PA 56-44 Clinton
IN 54-46 Clinton
NC 54-46 Obama

And I think that's giving her the benefit of the doubt in some of those states.

[NMMatt]

18. She can stay in if she cuts the crap with the right wing Rove tactics

What we cannot afford is that. If she were to run a positive campaign (I know... a big IF for a Clinton) six more weeks might actually be good for our nominee Obama since he'd get much more press than McCain. Feeding the Right Wingers their talking points and reinforcing them is what disgusts me and makes me think that the party leaders need to step in and either end this or publically tell Clinton that she needs to cut the crap or they will end it.

[Window]

19. Agree.

[Jawja]

20. If Hillary wins Pennsylvania, even by the

smallest of margins, the GOP Corporate Media will declare her the "winner" and begin making the case with the "talking points" 24/7 that she has won all of the big States, has momentum and should be given the nomination at a brokered convention.

If the Democratic Party gives in to this pressure and does what the GOP so dearly wants, it will leave a bitterly divided Party and ensure a McCain victory in the Fall.