Obama will do better against McCain in the GE

[theredpen]

Recent polling data (end of last week) from SurveyUSA shows Obama winning more electoral votes than Clinton in the general election.


If you look at the underlying data at the site (http://www.surveyusa.com ) you will find that Obama wins states by larger margins and loses by smaller margins than Clinton. Obama is withing 1% of winning Texas. With time to shine against McCain, Obama could have an electoral landslide.

Edit: In this poll, Obama loses the following states by a margin that is within the margin of error. That means the following states are battleground states.
Florida
Nebraska
New Jersey
North Carolina
South Carolina
South Dakota
Texas

[skater314159]

1. K&R

[powergirl]

2. Thank you - We need a Democratic President - not a nominee

And Obama is the only candidate to get us there.

[theredpen]

3. You know what depresses me?

You can get more attention for a "Rick Roll" in GD:P than for a post with actual data in it.

[skater314159]

4. You posted DATA... which always confuses the Partisans.

They don't want DATA, they just want their candidate to win the nomination...

[thoughtcrime1984]

11. I appreciate this, thank you!

[cbayer]

5. The good news is that they can both beat him.

And you are right about the rick-roll.

I am so sick of 3 line opinion pieces with no data that just flame a war. Many, many people hanging around here are just here to fight with each other.

Tiresome.

thanks for posting something of substance.

[SunsetDreams]

6. yes, this is very good news

Thank you for finding this and posting it.

It's interesting to note, that so far, both of them beat out McCain.

Obama's 50 state strategy has paid off, with Pres. Bush approval rating around 19%, and with Obama's appeal to Ind, and Rep, I think this year we could see some red states possibly in play.

[woolldog]

7. Read this also:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/3/6/212016/8597

[theredpen]

8. That's an awesome analysis

I thought this graphic was particularly inteseresting:

[skater314159]

9. Thanks for that!

This "optimal resource allocation" map was awesome:



Looks like Obama can get more effect off of less work than Hillary.

And since the electoral college has been a hot topic in the last coupla Presidential Elections, I found this particularly interesting:

[theredpen]

10. The probability distribution is key

The blue line (Obama) peaks right of the yellow line (electoral win). The red line (Clinton) does not. Also, the blue peak is narrower meaning that there is less variance (less likelihood that it's wrong).

[theredpen]

12. Apparently, math is still too hard for Clinton supporters

So I'm kicking the post back to the top.

Look at the maps. Which candidate would you rather have representing our side in November? The one who will win at least 280 electoral votes and is poised to pick up a dozen or so more? Or the candidate that will lose if McCain flips a {em]single one of the states that favors her?

Is anyone anxious for Florida to be the key battleground state again?!