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What will Kerry's best and worst states be?

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ButterflyBlood Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-12-04 10:13 PM
Original message
What will Kerry's best and worst states be?
and how much will he get in each?

my votes:

Best: Massachusetts (not counting DC): 63%
Worst: Utah: 30%
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alittlelark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-12-04 10:16 PM
Response to Original message
1. Best - CA, worst Miss.
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Gildor Inglorion Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-12-04 10:23 PM
Response to Reply #1
4. I wonder...
Mississippi has about 36% black voters, who will pretty much all vote Democratic. Add to that the few whites who will, also, and you get maybe 42-43% for Kerry. I tend to agree that Kansas or Utah will be the worst state for our ticket.
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Blue_Roses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-12-04 10:56 PM
Response to Reply #4
19. Mississippi is gonna be tough for Kerry...look
http://www.clarionledger.com/apps/pbcs.dll/frontpage

Scroll down check out the poll in the left hand column
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unblock Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-12-04 10:18 PM
Response to Original message
2. +ma; -ks
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MoonRiver Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-12-04 10:25 PM
Response to Reply #2
5. Noooooooooooooo
not KS!! Say it ain't sooooooooooooo! :cry:
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RoyGBiv Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-12-04 11:08 PM
Response to Reply #5
25. Despair Not
The last time someone from Massachusetts ran for President also happens to be the last time Kansas gave more than 40% of its votes to the Democrats. I think they were voting for Lloyd Bentson, but still.

Let's just hope the general election turns out better.
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mobuto Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-12-04 11:14 PM
Response to Reply #25
28. But the time before that,
the previous candidate from Massachusetts won only 39% of the vote in Kansas. I think they were voting against Jack Kennedy.
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RoyGBiv Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-12-04 11:43 PM
Response to Reply #28
33. Well
I was just offering a slight ray of light in a dark wilderness. I live in OK, which has a voting pattern similar to that of Kansas, and I have no hope of pushing my state for Kerry. I'm going to live and die by the election of a Senator. Beyond that, I just hope we offer more individual votes than we did before.

Since Truman, Kennedy and Dukakis still did better than anyone else except LBJ and Carter. I only find this interesting because higher support for LBJ and Carter is understandable in the context of those elections. But, Massachusetts politicians tend to be portrayed as the most liberal of Democrats, which doesn't go over well at all in the plains states.

I am particularly fascinated that Dukakis with all the Willie Horton, tax-and-spend, midget on a tank sniping done about him, running against daddy Bush, polled better than Gore, running against Junior.


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mobuto Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-12-04 11:51 PM
Response to Reply #33
34. You have a Democratic Governor, and soon a Democratic Senator
Don't say there isn't hope for Oklahoma!

I'm not going to even pretend I understand the plains states. I think I'm beginning to understand certain parts of the South. But the plains states? Not a chance.
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RoyGBiv Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-13-04 12:30 AM
Response to Reply #34
36. Don't Try
I've lived here all my life, and I still don't understand it. :-)

Oklahoma is particularly weird. It is southern in its politics in a sense, but seems to be stuck about two decades behind the traditional South in its evolution, and the minority vote is much lower. Many of the Democrats who win state offices are basically Republicrats. They run as Democrats because it's traditional, but the principles they espouse are indistinguishable from those of some very conservative Republicans. George Wallace would probably still do well in certain parts of OK.

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mobuto Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-13-04 08:01 AM
Response to Reply #36
41. A friend of mine worked to get
your Governor elected. He insists Brad Henry's a good guy. But that's about what I know.
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RoyGBiv Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-14-04 12:01 AM
Response to Reply #41
49. Brad Henry

He is a good guy, which makes it all the more remarkable that he got elected. OK also has a history of electing really bad governors, i.e. ones that end up in court or otherwise exposed as thoroughly corrupt. I don't see that being Henry's legacy.

He's the first governor we've had in my memory that's given me some hope for the direction of our state. The only thing that concerns me is whether he'll succumb to the intense pressures of the extremely conservative Democrats.

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rwheeler31 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-12-04 10:19 PM
Response to Original message
3. Second best Vermont
worst Georgia
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ButterflyBlood Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-12-04 10:29 PM
Response to Reply #3
6. Georgia can't be the worst
It's about 30% black. The worst will be one of those western almost all white states.
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daveskilt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-12-04 10:34 PM
Response to Reply #6
8. got to be utah
the state where clinton came fourth...
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ButterflyBlood Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-12-04 10:39 PM
Response to Reply #8
10. 3rd actually
but he came in 4th in some county in idaho.
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mobuto Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-12-04 10:42 PM
Response to Reply #10
11. Well, remember that Kerry's wife has spent decades in Idaho
Edited on Mon Apr-12-04 10:45 PM by mobuto
They own a home in Sun Valley. That's got to be worth at least enough votes to put him ahead of whomever the Prohibition Party nominates. My understanding is that most Idahoans (Idahoers?) hate the folks in Sun Valley. But those who do wouldn't vote for Kerry anyway.
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Nicholas_J Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-13-04 08:32 PM
Response to Reply #11
46. IN the last Idaho Poll
Kerry is trounced by Bush:

Bush gets 57 percent

Kerry gets 23 percent

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/CurrentPolls.htm

Millionaires just love Bush and Idaho has more millionaries per square mile than any other state.
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daveskilt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-12-04 10:45 PM
Response to Reply #10
13. he was fourth in several utah counties in 92
In utah county itself (provo orem area) he was behind bush senior with 70something% Perot with 19% Bo Gritz had a 5 or 6 and clinton got 3
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ButterflyBlood Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-12-04 10:51 PM
Response to Reply #13
16. according to uselectionatlas.org
Utah County in 1992:

Bush: 56.8%
Perot: 22.7%
Clinton: 13%
Everyone Else: 7.5%
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daveskilt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-12-04 10:56 PM
Response to Reply #16
18. I was there then and was pretty sure about that one...hmm
I must be wrong. maybe that 4th was just among BYU voters? I do remember reading several articles at the time about Bo Gritz (gun nut) beating clinton in some areas theresince third was the highest finish he had had before.
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ButterflyBlood Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-12-04 11:00 PM
Response to Reply #18
21. probably in some precincts
Nader beat * in some precincts but no counties, so that could've been the case for Clinton at BYU's precinct. In my precinct (which is completely college kids), Gore got 48%, * got around 35% and Nader got over 15%. In Amherst, Massachusetts, Nader got almost twice as many votes as * (25% to 13%). So in far right universities like BYU, I can see the opposite happening.
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mobuto Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-12-04 10:39 PM
Response to Reply #3
9. You're wrong on Georgia
in fact, Kerry could likely win Georgia if he worked hard enough (probably not a good idea, since those same resources would go further in PA, AZ and OH).

Georgia has an awful lot of Democrats. It has a huge African American population, which votes heavily Democratic, but also a fast-growing Hispanic populaion and a fast growing population of Northern white liberals. The Anglo liberals seem concentrated around Atlanta and Athens.
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daveskilt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-12-04 10:46 PM
Response to Reply #9
14. there are liberals in athens? that vote?
I live there and it is pretty darn conservative with the exception of a minority at the university.
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mobuto Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-12-04 10:49 PM
Response to Reply #14
15. Yes there are liberals in Athens
In 2000 Clarke County (I believe Athens is in Clarke - right?) went for Gore by an almost 2:1 margin.
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daveskilt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-12-04 10:57 PM
Response to Reply #15
20. cool - must be a silent majority though
either that or i am jaded by knowing too many conservatives in the MBA program.
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mitchum Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-13-04 06:42 PM
Response to Reply #20
45. I believe those are the three magic letters...
Edited on Tue Apr-13-04 06:44 PM by mitchum
which lead to an illusion of widespread conservatism in Athens. You have my deepest sympathy for having to attend classes and seminars with that lot.
Remember, there wasn't even a repug candidate for mayor.
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mitchum Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-13-04 06:39 PM
Response to Reply #14
44. There's one right here
:)
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notbush Donating Member (616 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-13-04 04:21 AM
Response to Reply #9
39. Wanna bet a thousand dollars
Kerry Wins Georgia when Bush win Mass.
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mobuto Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-13-04 07:46 AM
Response to Reply #39
40. Clinton won Georgia in 1992
Edited on Tue Apr-13-04 07:47 AM by mobuto
Until 2002, Georgia had two Democratic Senators (one of them a liberal), an excellent Democratic Governor, etc. Not only is Georgia heavily Democratic, but those who are are increasingly liberal rather than dixiecrat. Republicans definitely have an edge in most elections - and that's why my guess is Bush wins there in November unless Kerry starts to pull out a large lead nationally - but the edge is less than 5%. Recent Republican gains in the state are due to excellent on-the-ground organization, not to any vast change of opinion. Even in 2000, when Bush campaigned in Georgia and Gore did not, Bush only won 54% of the vote.

Will I bet you $1000? No. Because like I said, I don't believe Kerry will win there in November. But I don't believe its as out of the qustion as you suggest.
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Anaxamander Donating Member (550 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-13-04 12:01 PM
Response to Reply #3
42. No way is Georgia worse
than Utah. Remember, Clinton won GA in '92.
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boxster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-12-04 10:34 PM
Response to Original message
7. Massachusetts & Wyoming
Though, my state - Nebraska - won't be far behind WY.
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maisey03 Donating Member (67 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-12-04 10:43 PM
Response to Original message
12. Best...
Edited on Mon Apr-12-04 10:47 PM by maisey03
Massachusetts

Worst? Hmm.... Montana or Utah. Boxster - I always thought Nebraska was a swing state for some reason. I guess because it's next door to Iowa (?).

Slight guano: what is the dividing line b/w the west and midwest? Is Nebraska in the midwest?
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ButterflyBlood Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-12-04 10:52 PM
Response to Reply #12
17. it could be considered the Midwest
but the western part of Iowa it borders is pretty right wing. All the Democratic parts of Iowa are in the west.

and it definately WON'T be Montana. The state is far less Republican than most realize. Clinton even carried it in 1992.
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RoyGBiv Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-12-04 11:01 PM
Response to Original message
22. Same old patterns
Some of it will depend on his VP choice, I think.

His worst state will be either Idaho, Wyoming, or Utah. Since going for LBJ, Utah voters generally offer slightly over 30% to Dems. Wyoming and Idaho have similar voting patterns, but Idaho is slightly more consistent in giving less than 30% support for Dems.

I'd guess Massachusetts will be his best state, with slightly over 60%.

He could do well in New York depending on how the 9/11 investigation and controversy plays out. If holding the RNC there backfires, as it looks like it might, Kerry could do as well as Gore in NY.

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mobuto Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-12-04 11:10 PM
Response to Reply #22
26. Well, if you count DC as a state
Kerry will get something on the order of 90% of the vote. Bush will, however, do better than he did last time, when he nearly lost to Nader.
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RoyGBiv Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-12-04 11:22 PM
Response to Reply #26
31. The Original Question

...took DC out of the picture. Obviously the Dems will do best there.

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jfxgillis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-12-04 11:03 PM
Response to Original message
23. Utah and ...
Rhode Island.
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IndianaGreen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-12-04 11:04 PM
Response to Original message
24. Personally, I think Indiana is ripe for the taking
Bush has lost a lot of support in Indiana. A poll conducted back in early February showed Bush ahead of Kerry by 6 points. For Indiana that is an extremely narrow lead for a GOP candidate.

Between the jobs lost to NAFTA and rising anger about Iraq and 9/11, I think Indiana is ripe for the taking... if the Democrats want it.

We have a strong state ticket with our Democratic Governor Joe Kernan, war hero and Vietnam POW. We could use some presence from the national ticket.
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senseandsensibility Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-12-04 11:13 PM
Response to Original message
27. I shouldn't brag
but my state, California, recently posted a 38% approval rating for *. I challenge any state to beat that. So I hafta say, +CA, and a wild shot - TX.
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mobuto Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-12-04 11:17 PM
Response to Reply #27
29. Well, a poll conducted in Vermont last November,
back when Bush was well above 50% in California and was doing well everywhere, had Bush at only 34%. If you conducted a poll in the District of Columbia, not technically a state but we have electoral votes, I think you'd find support hovering around 8%.
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senseandsensibility Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-12-04 11:22 PM
Response to Reply #29
30. Shout out to DC!
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argyl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-13-04 12:07 AM
Response to Reply #27
35. Texas- Smirk below 60%.Changing demographics.May be his "home"
state but he'll do better in several others.
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Nicholas_J Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-13-04 08:36 PM
Response to Reply #27
47. Sorry, ButI think Connecticut beats even California:
Edited on Tue Apr-13-04 08:38 PM by Nicholas_J
Bush 31.5% Kerry 54.2% Nader 2.2% UMass 3/29-4/5/04 5% Moe:

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/CurrentPolls.htm

in fact, Bush is trounced by Kerry in Maine and Massachusetts by similar figures:

Mass:

Bush 31.5% Kerry 54.2% Nader 2.2% UMass 3/29-4/5/04 5%

Maine:

Bush 38% Kerry 51% Nader 4% Strategic Marketing Services 2/28-3/3 5%

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/CurrentPolls.htm

While I hail California for its gfood sense in this area, there are a few states doing a bit better.
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Josh Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-12-04 11:26 PM
Response to Original message
32. It's Utah, but it'll be more like 25%
nt.
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elperromagico Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-13-04 01:46 AM
Response to Original message
37. I think you're pretty close.
Best states:

Massachusetts
Rhode Island
New York
Hawaii

If Kerry loses those states, we're screwed.

Worst states:

Idaho
Utah
Wyoming
Kansas

If Kerry wins those states, prepare yourself for a landslide. And send a snowplow to Hell.



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Lexingtonian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-13-04 02:23 AM
Response to Original message
38. Utah and Rhode Island

I'll peg JK at 36% in Utah, 68% in Rhode Island.

Yes, even Utah is become more Democratic.

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Tim_in_HK Donating Member (544 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-13-04 01:33 PM
Response to Original message
43. Best MA
Worst either WY or ID
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agincourt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-13-04 10:14 PM
Response to Original message
48. Nebraska,
will be very bad for Kerry, they haven't voted in a democrat since LBJ.
That's why their football team is cursed, for going ga-ga over Bush.
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