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What Does Heavy Voter Turnout All Year Say About Obama's Chances in The GE?

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DrFunkenstein Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 08:40 PM
Original message
What Does Heavy Voter Turnout All Year Say About Obama's Chances in The GE?
There has been alot of yapping about the trouble Obama will face because he (barely) lost some traditional Democratic strongholds. As if California and New York were going to suddenly turn Red because of the intense enthusiasm for Sen. McCain to become Hot-Headed-Old-Coot-in-Chief.

But 2008 is not 2004. The last Presidential cycle was marked by intense enthusiasm to elect Anyone-But-Bush vs. a heavy turnout of religious fundies praying that they could ban gay marriages.

However, this time around, the fundies have no great love for McCain, who doesn't really have a whole lot of hot buttons to press without giving up his straight talk reputation. So either he pleases the base and alienates the independents or vice versa. The Rove coalition is dead.

After 2006 showed the GOP as the corrupt den of snakes and hypocrites that they are, and people understand the difference between tough talk and an actually effective foreign policy, there is little enthusiasm in the conservative ranks. The cognac conservatives (sort of) wanted Romney, the Jesus freaks (kinda) wanted Huckabee, and they all got stuck with Old Man McCain in the Middle.

GOP turnout, despite a wide open race, was pathetic even when it was competetive. Meanwhile, Dem turnout has broken record after record.

Despite polls showing relatively close proximity between the two Parties, with an edge for Dems, the enthusiasm gap - measured by turnout and fundraising - is enormous.

Obama broke all fundraising records in February - even the one he set in January. Do you really think that McCain is going to compete with him dollar for dollar?

Obama bridges between his base and independents. McCain is standing on a fault line between the two. And the GOP base is seriously looking at being the minority Party for the next quarter of a century.

For the record, here are some key turnout stats:

Nevada 117,559 (D) 44,315 (R)

California 4,416,779 (D) 2,565,761 (R)

Colorado 120,001 (D) 65,400 (R)

Illinois 2,000,000 (D) 880,000 (R)

Massachusetts 1,244,133 (D) 496,171 (R)

New Jersey 1,108,044 (D) 558,727 (R)

New York 1,800,000 (D) 630,000 (R)

Louisiana 384,243 (D) 161,151 (R)

Maryland 760,314 (D) 286,843 (R)

Virginia 973,931 (D)475,484 (R)

Wisconsin 1,099,661 (D) 403,568 (R)

Ohio 2,233,156 (D) 1,018,865 (R)

Rhode Island 186,036 (D) 26,970 (R)

Texas 2,865,945 (D) 1,384,563 (R)
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mudesi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 08:41 PM
Response to Original message
1. Obama has won BOTH big blue states and small red states
Look at the super Tuesday wins.
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marmar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 08:42 PM
Response to Original message
2. He definitely brings out a lot of energized new (and progressive) voters....
..... and that will be a huge help at the bottom of the Democratic ticket in the congressional races.

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Cha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 08:43 PM
Response to Original message
3. It says Obama's gonna win..I don't care
what hilary and mccain say.
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maddiejoan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 08:46 PM
Response to Original message
4. whatever
Hillary Clinton has received more votes than anyone else running for President this year, Democrat or Republican, according to new estimates from ABC and NBC News. The new numbers -- bolstered by decisive wins in Ohio, Texas, and Rhode Island. Following are the latest estimates from the networks:

ABC: Hillary Clinton has received 13,568,891 votes so far in primaries and caucuses while Sen. Obama has received 13,565,339.

NBC/MSNBC: Hillary Clinton has received 13,521,832 votes so far in primaries and caucuses while Sen. Obama has received 13,497,175.

In addition to the overall lead in votes, Hillary holds a significant lead in votes among Democrats. Hillary has received nearly 10.3 million votes among Democrats so far while Sen. Obama has received 9.2 million.
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Exilednight Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 08:47 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. Ugh, quit the spamming. This is the third or fourth time I've seen this exact same post.
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maddiejoan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 08:49 PM
Response to Reply #5
7. considering it's in response to the same type of posts
it's not really spamming.
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Exilednight Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 08:57 PM
Response to Reply #7
9. It's totally off topic of the thread. The thread is about.....
Obama's chances of winning states with heavy Democratic voter turnout compared to repugs - not whether Obama or Hillary has more votes.

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maddiejoan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 11:47 PM
Response to Reply #9
17. The topic is about high voter turnout
I'm pointing out that Hillary has a higher vote turnout then Obama.

:shrug:
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quakerboy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 10:00 PM
Response to Reply #4
16. I dont know where your lovely little numbers come from.
Mine come from the official state elections websites. And they say you are wrong. 13,911,385 for Obama, 13,626,257 for Clinton. Obama has more. By 285,128. Penn may just change that, but dont count your chickens till they hatch.
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AZBlue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 08:48 PM
Response to Original message
6. He brings out those of us who feel government doesn't stand for them or hear them.
Which is millions and millions of people who don't usually bother to vote.

What are his chances in the GE? McCain might as well just stay home.
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Double T Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 08:52 PM
Response to Original message
8. The BIGGER QUESTION is how many obama caucus cheerleaders........
can 'YOU' fit in a voting booth at the same time?
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Exilednight Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 08:58 PM
Response to Reply #8
11. With their hats on, or off. Wait, that's Popes in a car. Hold on, I know this one.
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Tarheel_Dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 09:00 PM
Response to Reply #11
12. LMAO....
:rofl:
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Double T Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 09:08 PM
Response to Reply #11
13. obama caucus cheerleaders don't wear hats 'cause it ain't cool.
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Harry Monroe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 09:48 PM
Response to Reply #11
15. Nah, that's Popes shitting in the woods
Or is a bear Catholic? Or something like that.
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Tarheel_Dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 08:58 PM
Response to Original message
10. Excellent Post Dr. Funk.......Recommended
:thumbsup:
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DrFunkenstein Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 09:16 PM
Response to Reply #10
14. Why Thank You!
:toast:
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