Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

If Obama wins the popular vote and pledged delegate vote - is that as a 100% lock on the nomination?

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
 
RiverStone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 07:03 PM
Original message
If Obama wins the popular vote and pledged delegate vote - is that as a 100% lock on the nomination?
OBAMA 13,000,655
CLINTON 12,411,705

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/...

The current popular vote count is from all the legal primaries/caucuses.

I can't fathom the Super Delegates going against the double whammy of popular vote lead and delegate count lead (which he has already won).

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
galaxy21 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 07:04 PM
Response to Original message
1. If the do, they;ll be riots in the streets.
I don't mean that as a threat. I mean it in a factual way. People will riot.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
K Gardner Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 07:05 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. Yes, we will :-)
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
hueyshort Donating Member (293 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 07:23 PM
Response to Reply #3
20. if that happens he will be the LAST black candidate
Edited on Sat Mar-08-08 07:25 PM by hueyshort
we will see for the next couple of centuries
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
anonymous171 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 11:48 PM
Response to Reply #20
27. Who said anything about being black?
It has nothing to do with race and has everything to do with the will of the people being ignored by party insiders.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
alteredstate Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-09-08 11:27 PM
Response to Reply #20
32. WTF?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
alteredstate Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-09-08 11:33 PM
Response to Reply #1
35. Obama cultists will riot only if their preconditions are met.
Obamamaniacs demand that Starbucks kiosks be placed at convenient intervals throughout the site of their civil disobedience, so they can keep their caffeine levels up with expensive lattes. Overturning and burning police cars is hard work.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
yourout Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 07:04 PM
Response to Original message
2. Depends on how good Hillary is at blackmail and how good her lawyers are.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
The Velveteen Ocelot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 07:06 PM
Response to Original message
4. Not if Hillary decides his delegates don't count because they are from states
that don't count.

:sarcasm:
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
shaniqua6392 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 07:06 PM
Response to Original message
5. The Super Delegates can do what they want.
They are not there to necessarily go along with the popular vote. They are there to be a deciding factor if the national party leaders disagree with what the people have said. That is why they were created in the first place. Because the people can not be trusted to make this decision. What a stupid system. It makes about as much sense as the electoral college.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Tropics_Dude83 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 07:07 PM
Response to Reply #5
7. Let them nominate Hillary
And then lose 55-45 to Mccain. Then say I told you so.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
galaxy21 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 07:09 PM
Response to Reply #5
9. Because the people can not be trusted to make this decision
Yeah, who needs a silly thing like democracy?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
shaniqua6392 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 07:13 PM
Response to Reply #9
11. It is incredibly insulting, but true.
Here is a good link for an explanation. I found it helpful when I was trying to figure this crap out.
http://www.kptv.com/politics/15065561/detail.html
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
hueyshort Donating Member (293 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 07:27 PM
Response to Reply #11
22. the states he is pulling are RED.
Wyoming is going for McCain. Miississippi is going for McCain.
Texas is going for McCain.

Figure it out.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Joe the Revelator Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 11:51 PM
Response to Reply #22
28. He's won 29 states so far. If they all go red, then Hillary has no chance at all
Or did I forget that her 13 states can tip the nomination in the face of a 30 state onslaught. :eyes:
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
wileedog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-09-08 11:28 PM
Response to Reply #5
33. The Superdelegates are there
to safeguard against a dangerously unqualified or unhinged candidate somehow sneaking through the process. They are not there to play Kingmaker. They are CERTAINLY not there to ensure that the the party elite can hand pick a nominee. If you believe that Putin has just the party for you.

You would have a hard time proving that Obama is completely and totally un-electable given what he has done the past few months.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
joshcryer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 07:07 PM
Response to Original message
6. It'll be his to lose, yep. As long as he doesn't blow up and seats FL and MI in solidarity.
He's fine then.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 07:09 PM
Response to Original message
8. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
KittyWampus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 07:12 PM
Response to Reply #8
10. unless you can prove that includes Wyoming & adjusted totals from California, they're wrong
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
leeman67 Donating Member (535 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 07:14 PM
Response to Reply #8
12. umm...that's including Michigan and Florida which do not count...
Keep in mind that Obama wasn't even on the ballot in Michigan.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
bigtree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 07:14 PM
Response to Reply #12
14. Obama supporters say votes cast don't count
great strategy.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
RiverStone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 07:20 PM
Response to Reply #14
18. The never ending arguement...
MI is a joke to include because Obama was not EVEN ON THE BALLOT!

FLA was nothing more than a beauty contest - and Hillary won the name recognition battle. But 1000's of folks did not vote because they were told IT WOULD NOT COUNT. Of course, we have articulated this on both sides countless times!

The only way we will ever solve this is for a re-do for both states. I think that is fair to both candidates and the voters.

But to count MI/FLA in th3e current popular vote totals is like counting spring training games in baseball as "officially" part of the legit MLB schedule. NOT!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
krawhitham Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 07:21 PM
Response to Reply #14
19. Yeah when your not on the ballot they do not count
and Florida should not count too, I hear HRC supporters bitching it was the repugs that moved up the primary date Florida, but truth be known it passed 132-0 in the state congress, the Dems voted for it too
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
leeman67 Donating Member (535 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-09-08 11:19 PM
Response to Reply #14
29. great strategy?
yeah, right up there with agreeing to rules, and then trying to break them when things don't go your way.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
bigtree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 07:14 PM
Response to Reply #8
13. thanks LulaMay
link?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
SoFlaJet Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 07:16 PM
Response to Reply #8
15. here ya go sweetie pie
THE MATH – March 8 – After Wyoming

Delegates needed to win nomination – 2,024.5 (considering status quo)

TOTAL DELEGATES

Estimated Total Delegates as of March 8:
Hillary Clinton – 1,475.5 (549.0 short)
Barack Obama – 1,598.5 (426.0 short)
Remaining Delegates – 948.0
(Source: Wikipedia 3/8/08)

PLEDGED DELEGATES

Estimated Pledged Delegates:
Hillary Clinton – 1,230.5
Barack Obama – 1,388.5
Remaining Pledged Delegates – 608.0
(Source: Wikipedia 3/8/08)

Maximum possible pledged delegates for each candidate:
Hillary Clinton – 1,838.5 (186.0 short of nomination)
Barack Obama – 1,996.5 (28.0 short of nomination)
Neither candidate can win the nomination with pledged delegates alone.

SUPERDELEGATES

Superdelegates (highest reported for each candidate):
Hillary Clinton – 245 (Source: CBS 3/8/08)
Barack Obama – 210 (Source: AP 3/8/08)
Remaining Superdelegates – 340

FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN SCENARIOS

These are ALL the possible scenarios concerning Florida and Michigan. These scenarios are for pledged delegates only. Superdelegate counts are not included. The presumption here is that most remaining superdelegates will support the candidate who wins the most pledged delegates from the state and territory contests.

The current status quo is: Neither Florida nor Michigan’s slate of delegates are seated.

Scenario 1 - Status Quo
CLINTON NEEDS 63.0%, OBAMA NEEDS 37.0%

Scenario 2 - New elections in FL and MI
CLINTON NEEDS 58.6%, OBAMA NEEDS 41.4%

Scenario 3 - MI seated as is, FL seated as is
CLINTON NEEDS 53.8%, OBAMA NEEDS 46.2%

Scenario 4 - FL not seated, New election in MI
CLINTON NEEDS 60.7%, OBAMA NEEDS 39.3%

Scenario 5 - MI not seated, New election in FL
CLINTON NEEDS 60.0%, OBAMA NEEDS 40.0%

Scenario 6 - FL seated as is, MI not seated
CLINTON NEEDS 59.9%, OBAMA NEEDS 40.1%

Scenario 7 - FL seated as is, New election in MI
CLINTON NEEDS 58.2%, OBAMA NEEDS 41.8%

Scenario 8 - MI seated as is, FL not seated
CLINTON NEEDS 56.9%, OBAMA NEEDS 43.1%

Scenario 9 - MI seated as is, New election in FL
CLINTON NEEDS 55.3%, OBAMA NEEDS 44.7%
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
tandem5 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 07:25 PM
Response to Reply #15
21. it is likely that *neither* will win on pledged delegates alone...
so if its left up to super delegates to decide, why should they go with the pledged delegate count over the overall popular vote if it turns out they differ? Since they (super delegates) have complete discretion why would they consider pledged delegates over the overall will of the voters?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
angie_love Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 07:32 PM
Response to Reply #8
24. wheres the link liar? I haven't heard that on ABC or NBC
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
fujiyama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 07:33 PM
Response to Reply #8
25. How are they getting the vote numbers for "registered democrats"?
Some states don't even have a party registration. On primary day here in MI, we had a Dem ballot or a repuke ballot. Anyone can chose either. Indies can go whichever way.

Also, it's deceptive to even include MI (and FL to a lesser extent) in the vote totals because Obama wasn't on the ballot in MI! And FL voters were told a while back their vote would not matter anyways.

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
MojoMojoMojo Donating Member (579 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 07:19 PM
Response to Original message
16. Republicans should not pick the Democratic candidate.
Thats what the pop vote and assigned delegates represent.
Go by the # of registered Democrats only.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
fujiyama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 07:30 PM
Response to Reply #16
23. I don't think that necessarily works
Some states don't really have anything in the way of party registration. For example in MI, you aren't registered one way or the other, but you simply chose the ballot you want - republican or democrat.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Zynx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 07:20 PM
Response to Original message
17. We'll see after May what the popular vote looks like.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
scheming daemons Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-09-08 11:23 PM
Response to Reply #17
30. Obama will win NC by more votes than Hillary wins PA by.....
...net gain for Obama.


He'll also win Mississippi by more votes than she wins Indiana... another wash.


The rest of the states are too small to make a dent in the popular vote lead.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Rageneau Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 11:47 PM
Response to Original message
26. Not if he plays by the rules, it isn't.
A lot has been said about "playing by the rules" when it comes to Florida and Michigan. Well, the convention has rules, too, and they should also be played by.

The rules say no candidate can be nominated unless he or she receives 2025 delegate votes. It doesn't matter who won the most states, or the most caucuses, or the popular vote, or which candidate is coolest.

What matters is the rules. Obama or Clinton both have to find some way to get 2025 delegate votes.



Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
scheming daemons Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-09-08 11:25 PM
Response to Reply #26
31. Exactly right... and if he's ahead in pledged delegates and popular vote, the superdelegates will ..
vote for him to maintain the integrity of the primary system.


Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Johnny__Motown Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-09-08 11:41 PM
Response to Reply #26
36. It isn't a lock in the sense that SDs Can't vote against him. It is a lock that they Won't overturn
that type of a lead.

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
OPERATIONMINDCRIME Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-09-08 11:31 PM
Response to Original message
34. I'd Say The PV Would Have To Be Above 1% And The Delegate Split Above 100.
Edited on Sun Mar-09-08 11:31 PM by OPERATIONMINDCRIME
If both of those things fail, then I think it's all up in the air.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DU AdBot (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view 
this author's profile Click to add 
this author to your buddy list Click to add 
this author to your Ignore list Sat Oct 25th 2014, 03:37 PM
Response to Original message
Advertisements [?]
 Top

Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC