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loveangelc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 04:42 PM
Original message
Oregon
why is Obama favored in Oregon? The last poll shows it almost tied with Obama a little bit ahead, and one from january had hillary leading. so why is obama favored in Oregon? Isn't it also a closed primary?

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ellisonz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 04:43 PM
Response to Original message
1. Portland and Eugene vs. the rest of the state.
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Cha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 04:45 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. Right..my daughter lives in Portland with her fam..
and went to school in Eugene.
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Flabbergasted Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 04:47 PM
Response to Reply #1
4. Right. nt
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hayu_lol Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 05:02 PM
Response to Reply #1
15. The very liberal part of Oregon...
is much of the I-5 corridor from the southern border of the state to Portland. Most of the rest of the state is dominated by the 'right.' Fortunately, the bulk of the voters live along the I-5 corridor.

Rural areas of the state are predominently RW'ers.

Our big advantage is that Oregon 'votes by mail.' Every voter in the state has the opportunity to study the ballot, the candidates, the issues for a week or more before sitting down at the kitchen table and marking their ballots.

Voter turnout here in Oregon, as a result of the 'by mail only' system is usually much larger than in other states. We also eliminate the so-called feeding frenzy by the media over exit polling.

As a liberal in Klamath County, a strong bastion of the right wing, my vote is added to the other liberal voices across the state. That is what has kept Oregon a fairly consistant blue state.

The elimination of polling precincts has also eliminated most of the voting problems that face voters from most of the other states. Paper and pencil ballots eliminate the problems of machine voting. There are no lines to wait in, no malfunctions at a precinct, no press feeding frenzy, and there is the permanent record that is kept in a secure location should there be challenges.

Voting by Mail is a very civilized way to vote. When compared to the nonsensical caucuses, this is the way of the future.

Most of Oregon voters appreciate the benefits of voting by mail. The system is more valued by the left than by the right however for reasons that needn't be explained here. Political manipulation is also almost impossible.

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Flabbergasted Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 05:09 PM
Response to Reply #15
19. Great Post
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XemaSab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 05:24 PM
Response to Reply #15
23. I posted below what I think will happen
But I don't think it's a simple left/right equation.

Obama won every single county in Washington, all the counties but one TINY county with 17 *voters* in Idaho, and 9 out of 11 counties north of Reno in Nevada.

I know that eastern Washington, Nevada, and Idaho aren't exactly like eastern Oregon politically, but it's interesting that he does well out in the very RED Great Basin.

I think Obama's going to PWN the eastern part of the state, and ironically, the I-5 corridor might be some of Hillary's strongest support. :shrug:
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Lefty-Taylor Donating Member (310 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 05:39 PM
Response to Reply #15
29. Hayu, as a proud Portlander, I thank you for an insightful, well-crafted post.
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XemaSab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 05:17 PM
Response to Reply #1
21. I don't think that's how it's going to shake out
Idaho and Washington went virtually 100% for Obama on a county basis (Hill won one county in ID, where the vote was 10 to 7 VOTES in her favor.)

Rural northern Nevada went for Obama, which is why he wound up getting more delegates.

Finally, "Jefferson State" in California went about 50-50 for Obama on a county basis, but on super Tuesday there was still a lot of Edwards support in Modoc, Del Norte, Shasta, and a few other counties.

I think Obama's going to do really well out in Eastern Oregon, as well as in the larger liberal cities and along parts of the coast. If I had to guess, I'd say there might be some Hillary strongholds in the Willamette Valley and other ag regions, and maybe a few coastal and suburban pockets. Then again, the Siskiyou basin went for Obama. :shrug:

It's really fascinating how Obama has the obvious urban support, but is also doing well in some unexpected hinterlands, especially in the Northwest and Intermountain states.

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results...

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ellisonz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 08:30 PM
Response to Reply #21
32. I didn't say it won't be an Obama landslide.
Oregon will be a tough state for Hillary. Eastern Oregon is low pop. To do well she has to win the Portland burbs, a chunk of Eugene and the coast/more rural I-5 corridor. Hopefully, this all ends in PA though.

Just pulling it out of my ass but I would guess 65-35 just based on potentially very high turnout in urban Portland and usual turnout elsewhere.
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XemaSab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 11:24 PM
Response to Reply #32
33. It was 68-31 in Washington
:thumbsup:
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meow mix Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-09-08 12:46 AM
Response to Reply #32
35. i bet he scores around 60..
these people are comparing oregon, to washington and cali.. haha. entirely different landscape.
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Cha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 04:44 PM
Response to Original message
2. When is Oregon's primary? I would think
Edited on Sat Mar-08-08 04:49 PM by zidzi
when Oregon gets to know Obama and now the real hilary they would know just who to vote for..being the progressive state they are.

My daughter lives in Portland so I'll have to ask if they plan on voting in the primary.
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Flabbergasted Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 04:47 PM
Response to Reply #2
5. May 22nd. edited May 20th
Edited on Sat Mar-08-08 05:07 PM by Flabbergasted
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Cha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 04:50 PM
Response to Reply #5
6. That should be verrrrry
Interestingk.
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Flabbergasted Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 05:04 PM
Response to Reply #6
16. Certainly, and I intend to drag my wife to Obama's speech when he comes to town...
I'll go Hill's to if I can manage it.

This will be the first major political even I've ever been to. My wife is German and not a citizen but she'll be interested to see a little of how things work here.
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skooooo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 04:51 PM
Response to Original message
7. It's a caucus, isn't it??
Maybe I'm wrong?
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ellisonz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 04:53 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. Oregon is all vote by mail.
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movonne Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 04:53 PM
Response to Original message
9. I live here in Or. and the Portland and Eugene areas are very liberal
and active...both are college areas..I think that Or. will go for Obama..
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TAWS Donating Member (312 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 04:54 PM
Response to Original message
10. Obama won Northern Califronia and Washington, so I think he has a good shot
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woolldog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 04:58 PM
Response to Reply #10
13. yup
look at the counties he won in california: alameda, sonoma, humbolt (a lot of stoners there), san francisco, and marin. These are the most liberal counties in CA.
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XemaSab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 05:26 PM
Response to Reply #13
24. You can add Trinity, Mendocino, Santa Cruz, and Santa Barbara to that list
:patriot:
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woolldog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 04:55 PM
Response to Original message
11. A lot of progressive liberals
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NewHampster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 04:58 PM
Response to Original message
12. Mail in
Where to Go to Vote

Because Oregon is a Vote by Mail state, you may vote in the comfort of your home.

* If you are a registered voter, a ballot will automatically be mailed to you for each election that you are eligible to vote in.

Ballot Mailing Days

* Each County Elections Office also has voting booths. The booths accommodate any voters who would prefer to vote at a polling place, as well as voters with special needs.

Assistance to Vote

Voters with disabilities can request assistance to vote their ballot by calling the local County Elections Office. Assistance can be provided in the voters home or place of their choice.

http://www.uhavavote.org/elect_q_a/wheretovote/where.ht...
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skooooo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 05:01 PM
Response to Original message
14. How many delegates?
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Flabbergasted Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 05:07 PM
Response to Reply #14
17. 65
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skooooo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 06:07 PM
Response to Reply #17
30. it'd be nice if he could win there by a fair margin..

...and pick up another 15 or so net!
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 05:08 PM
Response to Original message
18. Oregonians are known to be intelligent
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featherman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 05:11 PM
Response to Original message
20. Clinton is not particularly popular in the Northwest
The SUSA poll yesterday showed her losing to McCain in a GE matchup in both OR and WA while Obama wins both v. McCain. That's one factor.

The traditional, Catholic, white working class voter that has been such a strong demographic for her is not a major factor in OR

The Hispanic portion of the vote is not nearly what it is in the Southwest and SoCal

Oregon is not an heavily older population state like FL, OH and PA

On the other side:
There is no AA vote to speak of. And there is a strong feminist tradition in liberal centers like Portland and Eugene.

It's a long way off and the national dynamics may change dramatically but I'm looking at 55-60% Obama in this one.
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XemaSab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 05:28 PM
Response to Reply #20
26. Re: There is no AA vote to speak of.
Obama's been cleaning her clock in the whitest states in the country. Idaho, for example, where he won 80 to 20.

I'm not worried in the slightest about the lack of Black people in Oregon. :)
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woolldog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 05:20 PM
Response to Original message
22. I want to add this:
in states that aren't beholden to the democratic machine, where voters tend to be more "independent" and anti-establishment democrats, Obama does very well. That's my impression of what Oregon is like, only having visted there a few times.
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pdxmom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 05:34 PM
Response to Reply #22
27. The RW likes to call us "The People's Republic of Portland" and Bush, Sr.
dubbed Portland "Little Beirut". We have little tolerance for the RW agenda here and even less for warmongers.

We've also witnessed the Patriot Act firsthand, with the Brandon Mayfield case front and center.

Hillary may do well, but her Iraq vote may be her undoing. We are a very anti-war city.
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Beregond2 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 05:35 PM
Response to Reply #22
28. OR
Yes, that's just what Oregon is like. I live just over the border in WA, but I have always felt more like an Oregonian. All our news comes from there, Portland is the nearest large city, and I have lived there at various times. There was a time when OR was a red state, but even then, they kept sending Wayne Morse to the Senate; one of the most liberal Senators in history. Now, the urban areas are reliably blue, and even the reddish areas tend to be pretty independent.

The blue collar workers in the Northwest have traditionally been employed in the lumber and paper industries, which have been devastated by globalization. Therefore, they have no great love of the Republican-lite of the Clintons. They supported them when there was no other option, but now? I don't think so. Obama will do just as well in OR as he did in WA.
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Bluenorthwest Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 05:28 PM
Response to Original message
25. I have only been here about 4 years
Here for last GE, not for Primary. I love vote by mail!
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OutNow Donating Member (538 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 06:45 PM
Response to Original message
31. The Big "O"
Usually any "O" seen in Eugene is yellow or green and designates the U of "O".

But this year, there are many "O"s around town that represent Obama.

I've had Obama bumper stickers on my pickup for almost a year now.

Not too many Clinton stickers around here.
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meow mix Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 11:32 PM
Response to Original message
34. sick of feds being oppressive. (assisted suicide, medical marijuana ect)
Edited on Sat Mar-08-08 11:33 PM by meow mix
Obama is the only candidate who will be on their side, and they know this. Oregon has always been one of my most admired states.
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