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Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
 
tekisui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 02:55 PM
Original message
278
When Barack Obama picks up 278(assuming he gets 7 from WY) more Delegates, Pledged or Super, Hillary will have been mathematically eliminated. SuperDelegates can change, but I don't see them leaving Obama from here on out.

278, counting it down.....

Go, Obama!
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tekisui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 02:58 PM
Response to Original message
1. 599 PD's left. 275 SD's left.
278 of 874 remaining!!!
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Ravy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 03:07 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. Your math must be off. If he gets only 278 more, that means she
can get 596 to his 278.

I think that will put her on top.
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tekisui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 05:22 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. If he gets 278, she cannot reach 2025.
This is, of course, assuming the SuperD's stay put.
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Ravy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 07:28 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. Something doesn't add up.
If he gets exactly that number, she will be 150 votes or so ahead of him. Are there that many delegates pledged to others? I don't think so.
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tekisui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 07:44 PM
Response to Reply #5
6. When he gets to that point, he will have 1805.
And of the remaining delegates, there will not be enough there for Hillary to reach 2025, if she got all of them. It is the number he needs to "cut her off".

There are 874 delegates left, Pledged and SUper. Hillary needs 596 more to reach 2025. When Obama get 278 more, that will leave only 596 in the pool. Of course she will pick up some of those, but if and when he picks up 278, she will be unable to get 2025. Obama will still need 77 more, but there will at least be enough for him to get it.
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Ravy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 08:38 PM
Response to Reply #6
8. There are only 50 or so pledged to Edwards/Others...
That means that one of the two candidates could make 2025 with the other at 1975 or so.

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tekisui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 03:00 PM
Response to Original message
2. Kick for Obama's Magic Number!!
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XemaSab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 08:18 PM
Response to Original message
7. According to my calculations
After today's victory Obama would only have to win 50% in every remaining state PLUS half of the superdelegates to be at 2,085.

Even if you give Hillary a 70%-30% victory in Pennsylvania with a 50-50 split in all the other states, Obama's at 2,017, or only a few votes short. Hillary, on the other hand, is only at 1,972. If she won Pennsylvania 80%-20%, she's still only be at 1,987.

If you give Hillary a 60% win in every remaining contest plus 60% of the superdelegates, she's at 2,037, or just a few votes over.

If you give Hillary 55% in Pennsylvania, 55% in Indiana, 60% in West Virginia, 55% in Kentucky, and 60% in PR, and split all the other votes 50/50 (including superdelegates), Obama still takes it by 2 points.

http://www.forbes.com/2008/02/27/obama-clinton-election...

This is Obama's race to lose.
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