The Primaries are like the magic number in baseball

[maseman]

If you are a baseball fan you know as September rolls around and the end of regular season approaches teams have the "magic number" to clinch a plaoff position. What that means is that as there are fewer and fewer games winning each game becomes more important.

That is exactly the stage Obama and Hillary are in now. Obama is ahead in the delegate count by about 100 (I haven't checkes the exact number in the last few days.) People say Wyoming doesn't count. Actually each state, even small ones, count more and more each day that passes.

If Obama wins the majority of delegates in Wyoming it may not net many, but it also reduces the the total delegate pie. Mississippi is next week and again if he wins only a few net delegates it still reduces the total delegate pie by 33 or so.

I just don't know how Hillary can catch up from here to the end. Of course some of it depends onb how Florida and Michigan play out, but even those two states I believe are shared delegates based on total vote.

[Ravy]

1. There is this little thing called Superdelegates....

Who, in your analogy, can tack on many, many wins to any team after the last game is played.

[maseman]

3. Yes super delegates

And they will vote with their electorate. If not, the Dem party is finished.

[Ravy]

6. Vote *how* with the electorate????

What if Clinton has the most popular vote? Will they vote with the electorate of their congressional district or state, the people *they* represent, or on national totals?

If the election were held by the same rules (I know, it isn't) that we use to elect the President.. .the playing field one of these two will be competing on in November, Hillary would only need to win one more state to lock in the nomination.

All of these things are supposed to measure the "will of the people". Yet they all come up with different results.

I think the national pledged delegate lead is the least likely of many criteria that Superdelegates should vote on. Their whole purpose for existance is to overturn that if they don't feel it is representative of the people's will. I think popular vote will be key. It will also be key if one of the candidates promises to offer the other the vice-presidency... which I think is a current Clinton campaign strategy, and a powerful one.

[tekisui]

4. Most of the SUpers are making their intentions clear.

And, I expect more to do so before the Convention.

[Ravy]

7. I think you have to, at some point, ask yourself this:

It is clear that Obama will win the most pledged delegates. If that is what they will vote on, what are they waiting for? The campaign is costing millions and millions of dollars and to hear the Obama people, Clinton is making it more likely every day that McCain will win.

Personally, I believe they are waiting to force the two candidates into a unity ticket. I can't see a politician (which most of the SDs are) wanting to dismiss roughly half of the party, their supporters, by making a vote that excludes one camp.

[tekisui]

8. I agree they should act.

The worst part of the long primary is the RNC has outraised the DNC, because all the Dem money is going to the Primary.

I just don't see how they can join on a ticket now, though. Maybe 3 weeks ago.

[Ravy]

9. I still see it. By virtue of us being active on DU, we are subject

to all of the bumps along the way... magnified many times over.

In my job, I visit a lot of people from all around the country, and a lot of people who are liberal Dems. I am constantly amazed by how little of the detail they really know. They saw a few debates, think both are great, probably already voted for one or the other when their state held their primary... but they filter out anything beyond that unless it is big news drummed into them over and over.

And they have a different idea of big news than we do.

[tekisui]

2. Obama's Magic Number is 285.

If he picks up 285 more delegates, Hillary cannot reach 2025. Of course SuperD's can change, but I don't think they will as Obama rolls on.

[tekisui]

5. Hillary's Magic Number is 424