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How are the last 10 states going to vote?

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XemaSab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 11:55 AM
Original message
How are the last 10 states going to vote?
Oregon, Montana, Wyoming, South Dakota, Mississippi, and North Carolina I'm going to guess will vote for Obama.

This leaves Indiana, Kentucky, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania for possible Clinton wins.

Thoughts? Reflections? Hopes? Wishes? Dreams? :shrug:
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tekisui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 11:57 AM
Response to Original message
1. Hillary's only possible wins left are: PA, IN and PR.
I think Obama could pull off an upset in PA. He has the money and the time. And after WY, MS and more SuperD's the momentum. IN is in play, and Hillary will win PR.
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nonconformist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:20 PM
Response to Reply #1
12. Hillary will win big in Kentucky. nt
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tekisui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:23 PM
Response to Reply #12
14. I've not heard much about KY.
I'll have to take your word for it that she will win. I doubt it will be big. She doesn't really win "big". Only in her home state has she gotten above 57%.
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nonconformist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:54 PM
Response to Reply #14
18. She'll take KY at least as big as she did Ohio
The demographics are similar, especially in the areas where she won Ohio huge. Plus, KY *loved* Bill Clinton.
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Zynx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:55 PM
Response to Reply #14
19. KY outside of Louisville will be very fertile territory for her.
It's demographically more in her favor than even Ohio.
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featherman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 01:47 PM
Response to Reply #12
32. Clinton favored in KY and WV
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DemVet Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 11:58 AM
Response to Original message
2. Thoughts? Yeah...the convention should be interesting. n/t
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tekisui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 11:58 AM
Response to Reply #2
3. And over after one vote.
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Quixote1818 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:01 PM
Response to Original message
4. Indiana shares a long border with Illinois and could go for Obama
nt
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Benhurst Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:06 PM
Response to Reply #4
6. Possibly, but it's not nearly as progressive a state as Illinois.
Edited on Sat Mar-08-08 12:42 PM by Benhurst
And historically it was highly infested with the KKK.
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XemaSab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:09 PM
Response to Reply #4
8. Hillary had some support in the rural south of IL
and she won virtually all of the rural counties in Ohio. That makes me think Indiana could go for her.
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Zynx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:56 PM
Response to Reply #4
20. Indiana is a fundamentally different state altogether.
Very very different.
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democrattotheend Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 01:06 PM
Response to Reply #4
25. I saw a poll that showed him winning there
A couple weeks ago. But it surprised me. Indiana is like Ohio but with a smaller black population. It seems like it should be a terrible state for him.
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Hawkowl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 01:32 PM
Response to Reply #25
29. Yes but it is a primary
Blacks make up a sizable percentage of the democratic party in Indiana. Overall Indiana is a pretty hardcore rethuglican state. The exceptions being in Northwest Indiana which has been hardcore Dem and a mixed area around Indianapolis. The Ku Klux Klan actually took over the state government in the 1920's. I think most of the people most opposed to Obama are registered republicans. So I predict a sizable victory for Obama.
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Quixote1818 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:02 PM
Response to Original message
5. If you are right then Obama wins the nomination easily. nt
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LWolf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:09 PM
Response to Original message
7. As a voter in one of those last states,
I will vote for Gravel, write in a better Democrat, or, if it looks close, vote for whichever of the current two is behind, hoping to help make it a draw at the convention.
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tekisui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:16 PM
Response to Reply #7
9. It will be nearly impossible for a draw. With 2 candidates, one will
get the majority after one vote. Unless SuperD's sit the vote out or vote Uncommitted, which I don't see happening.
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LWolf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:30 PM
Response to Reply #9
17. I know.
That makes it nearly impossible to get a candidate I can support in November. "Nearly" isn't "completely," though, so I'll hold out until any possibility of a better outcome is gone.
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tekisui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:17 PM
Response to Original message
10. Further. Obama will win his with big margins.
Hillary will win by squeaks. She has only breached 57% in her home state.
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JackRiddler Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:19 PM
Response to Original message
11. Last 13 votes...
Puerto Rico also.

And the possibility of Michigan and Florida replays. If these happen and are scheduled for the same day as PA, you get Final Tuesday. Or Ultimate Inconclusion.
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XemaSab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:22 PM
Response to Reply #11
13. I doubt they'd be able to get those up and running in the next 5 weeks
April's not that far away.

May sounds plausible, though. :shrug:
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tekisui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:23 PM
Response to Reply #13
15. They are saying June, if it happens.
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Tropics_Dude83 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:25 PM
Response to Reply #13
16. PR is not a sure bet for HRC at all
The governor has endorsed Obama. PR isn't like the Hispanic population in the continental U.S. Don't write it off.
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Zynx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:57 PM
Response to Original message
21. North Carolina will be close as some recent polls show it tightening.
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dansolo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:58 PM
Response to Original message
22. I only have PA, KY, and WV for Clinton
Edited on Sat Mar-08-08 01:01 PM by dansolo
If the remaining primaries and caucuses split their delegates 55%-45%, with Hillary getting PA, KY, and WV, that would net Obama +15 in the pledged delegates. And I think that that split is fairly conservative in favor of Hillary, i.e. I think that Obama's wins will be by larger margins.
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THUNDER HANDS Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:59 PM
Response to Original message
23. she wins Kentucky, West Virginia - Penn is a tossup
all the others go to Obama.
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democrattotheend Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 01:06 PM
Response to Original message
24. Oregon should be a toss-up
Obama won the Washington caucuses overwhelmingly, but won the primary narrowly. Oregon is a primary.

To be fair, a lot of Obama caucus-goers in Washington probably did not vote in the primary because they knew it did not matter. I believe Clinton's campaign had people calling Washington to encourage participation in the primary, probably in hopes of showing that caucuses were unrepresentative.
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XemaSab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 01:22 PM
Response to Reply #24
27. I feel confident in saying Oregon's a slam-dunk for Obama
Not only did Washington with its similar demographics go overwhelmingly for Obama, but the hinterlands of Nevada and Idaho indicate that he may have surprising strength out in Eastern Oregon, PLUS some of the "Baja Oregon" areas of California such as Siskiyou, Lassen, Mendocino, and Humboldt Counties in California went for Obama as well.

If you look at the county maps, you can see swathes of support for both of the candidates, and Oregon should be Obama country. :D

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results... /

(And even on the California map, note well that Hillary didn't break 50% in Shasta, Del Norte, or Modoc. Modoc, surprisingly, went 12% for Edwards, while Shasta county went 11%.)
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featherman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 01:51 PM
Response to Reply #27
33. Oregon will be a strong state for Obama
I have no doubt about Oregon whatsoever... take it from a long time (until 2002) resident and party activist (precinct committee captain)
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fujiyama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 01:11 PM
Response to Original message
26. Apparently there was an Obama state by state win/loss projection
that was leaked to the press and it showed the same thing.

Obama will do well in Montana, Oregon, SD, MS, and NC (which I think will be closer now though).

He will likely lose Indiana, WV, and PA.

I think PR leans toward Hillary as well.

Either way, at this point no one has a chance to win 2025 pledged elected delegates so this thing goes to the convention with Obama likely having the lead in delegates. Depending on what happens with MI and FL, Hillary could take the lead...But I have no idea when those two states would vote...
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mckeown1128 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 01:27 PM
Response to Original message
28. Here is how I have it....
Obama:Oregon, Montana, Wyoming, South Dakota, Mississippi, and North Carolina

Hillary: Kentucky, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania

Toss Ups: Indiana, Guam, and PR.
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IndianaGreen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 01:36 PM
Response to Original message
30. Indiana had a lot of John Edwards supporters
The empty suit that is Evan Bayh is a Clintonite and he got many of the party hacks to back Hillary in the expectation that he would end up as her running mate.

Edwards' organizing efforts were led by Anne DeLaney, a highly respected former prosecutor and child advocate.

I think Indiana is in play for Obama if he takes the time and effort to campaign here.

Come on down, Barack!

:-)
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backtothefuture1999 Donating Member (13 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 01:45 PM
Response to Original message
31. According to intrade - Hillary will take Kentucky
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XemaSab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 05:34 PM
Response to Reply #31
34. I get a wierd feeling that the "coal belt"
will go strongly for her, but I can't really put my finger on it. :shrug:
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