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Mississippi: Obama 46, Hillary 40. Both lead 4:1 with their color, lose their gender

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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 11:25 PM
Original message
Mississippi: Obama 46, Hillary 40. Both lead 4:1 with their color, lose their gender
Edited on Fri Mar-07-08 11:52 PM by jackson_dem
The racial voting is disappointing.

Overall: 0 46, H 40
Blacks: O 67, H 16
Whites: H 72, O 18

Curiously Clinton leads by 5 among men but Obama leads women by 15. The opposite is usually true. Similarly Obama almost always wins the rethug vote and indie vote, and usually by lopsided margins, but here Clinton dominates among both while Obama leads by 17 among Democrats, a group who usually loses. However, much of this can be explained by the racial overlap in party identification in the South. The few places Hill has beaten Obama among rethugs have mostly been in the South. Obama's alleged "crossover appeal" apparently dissappeared overnight on 3/3. What really happened is he never had it. Much of the rethug and indie vote he attracted was from folks trying to beat the strongest Democratic candidate, Clinton. It was in the rethug interest to vote for Obama from Iowa to Wisconsin. With Hill on the ropes, though, it makes sense for rethugs to vote for Clinton to keep the race going to April 22 and hence the switch of about 20-25% of rethugs and indies to the Clinton camp, although Obama still won both groups on 3/4. PA is thankfully a closed primary but except the rethugs to be back in Obama's corner in full force in May.

http://southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_37_265.asp...
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TAWS Donating Member (312 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 11:29 PM
Response to Original message
1. Kind of ironic how she blasted the state for being against women but she is leading among men
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Johnny__Motown Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 11:30 PM
Response to Original message
2. could you use "race" instead of color? (please)
Edited on Fri Mar-07-08 11:31 PM by Johnny__Motown
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 11:41 PM
Response to Reply #2
12. Color is more superficial and shows how lame the numbers in the OP are
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Dogmudgeon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 11:32 PM
Response to Original message
3. Hillary gets 16% of the African-American vote?
Edited on Fri Mar-07-08 11:32 PM by Pigwidgeon
The split has usually been around 90-10 (A-A to non-A-A).

If 90% of the A-A voters vote for Obama, and only 50% of the non-A-A, Obama should still win with at least 70%. For Obama to be leading by SIX percent is a sign of growing trouble.

Perhaps I'm looking at this wrong. I'm going to wait until a few more polls have been conducted to read the tea leaves.

--p!
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 11:44 PM
Response to Reply #3
15. Obama starts the typical Dem primary up 17-3 due to the black vote
That is with an 85-15 split. If he falls to even just a 70-30 split it would become 14-6, an overall average decline from a 14 point lead to an 8 point lead. If Obama lost even 15% of the black vote he would be severely damaged in the primaries. Where could he make up that 6 percent?
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Dogmudgeon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:28 AM
Response to Reply #15
35. I'm basing that on 65% of MS Dems being African American
Here's my own math for Obama:

90% of the African-American vote;
plus
50% of the non-African-American vote.

Or,

65% * 90% = 58.5%
plus
35% * 50% = 17.5%

Total = 76%
Delegates = 15 (HRC = 5)

Assuming that NO non-African-American voters vote for Obama, he still gets close to 60% of the vote, at least 12 pledged delegates.

Insider Advantage is reporting 46-40 in favor of Obama; but IA is a new polling company and does not have a well-established track record.

My numbers for the African-American Democratic voting base in Mississippi may also be off. But in general, I'm in the same ballpark. If Barack Obama does not get at least 60% of the Democratic vote, he has some trouble on his hands.

Almost 37% of the population of Mississippi is African-American. Source: The Black Population, 2000 (USCensus; PDF); but this does not contain detailed voting information.

--p!
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LisaL Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 11:46 PM
Response to Reply #3
18. He isn't getting nowhere near 50% of the non-AA vote.
Not according to that poll, anyway.
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Skwmom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:00 AM
Response to Reply #3
26. 1. It's an open primary. 2. Clinton is falsely saying Obama will be VP
(which I don't see happening).
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:17 AM
Response to Reply #26
31. Ironically it being an open primary benefits Hill for once in MS
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FlyingSquirrel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 11:33 PM
Response to Original message
4. Ignored
Jeez why did I ever clear out my ignore list?
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 11:34 PM
Response to Original message
5. Obama leads among woman because the primary is probably dominated by Black Women.
And the MS primary will probably be much more in line with ARG. They have it at 58-34 Obama. They have Obama getting 87% of the black vote, which is much more than the 67% IA has him getting (I think you mixed up the black and white vote numbers). 87% is much more in tune with the vote in every other state that has voted.
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 11:39 PM
Response to Reply #5
9. No I got them right. Go to the link. He leads 72-16 with blacks with a large number on the fence
ARG is a joke. Obama should win MS but if it is close it will be a blow to him.
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 11:45 PM
Response to Reply #9
17. I went to the link, and it says Obama has 66.7 % of blacks and she has 71.8% of whites
And I personally dont think ARG is a joke anymore. Looking at their record over the past five contests leads me to believe that. They had Obama winning Wisconsin by ten, Hillary winning Ohio by 14, Obama winning Vermont by a little over 20, had Hillary winning RI by 12, and Hillary winning Texas by 3. Id say they have been pretty good over the past five weeks.
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 11:56 PM
Response to Reply #17
24. I got it backwards and now corrected the OP
Still the point of 4:1 racial voting stands regardless of whether it is 67 or 72.

Hmmm...but ARG's MS poll has Obama ahead 65-28 among women. That is hard to believe and Hill should do better than 61% of the white vote. I think the truth is somewhere in between ARG and IA but if Hill can somehow keep it within 10 it will be a moral victory for her and blunt the modicum of momentum Obama may get out of winning a state he was expected to win big all along.
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:04 AM
Response to Reply #24
29. In Alabama, Obama won by 14. There he got 84% of the black vote and Hill got 75% of the white vote.
I expect the numbers to be a little more than that. There, the vote was 51% black and 44% white. in 2004, the vote in MS was 56% black and 40% white. Hillary will probably win around 70-80% of the white vote, while Obama will win 83-90 percent of the black vote. I believe that should Obama will therefore win around 59-41
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:21 AM
Response to Reply #29
32. That is likely but if IA is right Obama won't win the black vote 88-12 in MS like on 3/4
If he doesn't win nine out of ten black votes things will be much closer. If Hill can somehow get Obama down to 3:1 among blacks and retains her white support in MS she will have a great result.
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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 11:34 PM
Response to Original message
6. That's all around sad.
The "Obama competes in the south" math has always been a strange fantasy.

There are many AA voters in the deep south, and very few Democrats left. So the Southern Democratic parties are the most heavily AA of any because there just aren't so many deep south white dems anymore.

I was amazed to see people talking about Obama being competitive in SC or Alabama based on primary performance. Hillary cannot even compete with Obama in the Alabama Democratic Party, but she would out-poll Obama by 5-10 points in Alabama in a general election (and would lose horribly, too)
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woolldog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 11:48 PM
Response to Reply #6
21. stop lying!
I've never seen a single Obama supporter on here say that he would be competitive in Alabama. Neither Dem would.
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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 11:55 PM
Response to Reply #21
23. You may need bigger eyes.
There is no state I have not seen suggested to be in play for Obama here on DU, including Alabama.

And surely you yourself have seen SC discussed that way. (Which is only about 2% less foolish an idea than Alabama)

And a week from now you'll probably see some Mississippi talk, too.

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woolldog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:05 AM
Response to Reply #23
30. Proof?
I'd like some proof, sir.
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TAWS Donating Member (312 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 11:36 PM
Response to Original message
7. This is the same poll that underestimated Obama's lead in Alabama by 12 points
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 11:40 PM
Response to Reply #7
11. It is the same poll that was right on the money in Texas just a few days ago
They had Hill up by 5, she won by 4.
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TAWS Donating Member (312 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 11:46 PM
Response to Reply #11
19. That poll said Clinton led early voters 55% to 43%
"Moreover, in an entirely separate survey that we conducted of early voters, Clinton led by a 55%-to-43% margin. While much of this early vote is probably accounted for in the poll cited above because we ask the inclusive question, If the election were held today?, the separate survey that measured Clintons clear edge among early voters may help explain Clintons overall edge in our poll."

Obama won early voters by a large margin.


The poll had two errors that cancel each other out (overestimating Clinton early voters and overestimating Obama's election day support)
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 01:01 AM
Response to Reply #19
38. Actually Obama won the early vote by about three points.
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Skwmom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:03 AM
Response to Reply #11
28. With 8% of her voters being Republicans. Please spare me the
"they truly support Hillary" argument b/c we all know that isn't true.
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:22 AM
Response to Reply #28
34. And 11% of Obama's voters being rethugs
Edited on Sat Mar-08-08 12:24 AM by jackson_dem
The funny thing is that if Obama kept his 75-21/70-30 rethug ringer support he would have won Texas but his "crossover appeal" vanished and his margin fell to the single digits when it temporarily, with PA in mind, no longer served the rethug cause by voting for Obama. The same thing happened with "independents."
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Lucinda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 11:38 PM
Response to Original message
8. Weird to see her with double the indy vote over Obama.
14% undecided is a lot
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woolldog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 11:43 PM
Response to Reply #8
14. It's not weird at all
This is Mississippi we're talking about.
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Lucinda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:21 AM
Response to Reply #14
33. Meaning?
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Maddy McCall Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:01 AM
Response to Reply #8
27. And the majority of undecideds within the last three days before the election...
break for Clinton.
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rodeodance Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 01:07 AM
Response to Reply #27
41. I note she is not doing well with women--any thoughts?
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Frank Booth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 11:40 PM
Response to Original message
10. "Curiously Clinton leads by 5 among men but Obama leads women by 15"
I think this might be a pretty good tipoff that this poll is just a bit unreliable.
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 11:42 PM
Response to Reply #10
13. No, post 5 is right. Black women will predominate the female vote
And white males will be disproportionately represented among the male vote. Given the racial voting going on in MS that explains the gender reversal.
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Frank Booth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 11:51 PM
Response to Reply #13
22. Honestly, are there
many white male democrats left in Mississippi? It's not surprising that black females would be the largest group of Democratic voters there, but I'd still think that black male democrats would outnumber white male democrats.
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 11:57 PM
Response to Reply #22
25. See post 16. Many black males are disenfranchised
Hence blacks make up a far larger share of Democratic women in MS than they do Democratic men.
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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 11:45 PM
Response to Reply #10
16. God only knows how many black men in Miss. have no franchise
The black voting population may be heavily female.

I think AA voters are 56% of the Miss. Dem party. If that subset is 60% female...
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rocktivity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 11:48 PM
Response to Original message
20. Get thee behind me, polls!
UNCLEAN! UNCLEAN!!!!



x(
rocknation


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MS Liberal Donating Member (180 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:37 AM
Response to Original message
36. This Mississippi liberal is voting for Hillary
I am an AA woman, retired Army veteran who is voting for Hillary and plan to bring my neighborhood with me. I am hoping and praying for an upset on Tuesday.
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Tarheel_Dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 12:56 AM
Response to Reply #36
37. Good luck with that.........
:eyes:
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 01:05 AM
Response to Reply #37
40. Yeah, roll eyes at a great Democrat working at the grassroots to get the vote out
Folks like MS Liberal are the backbone of the party, not the rethug and indie ringers who have given Obama his current lead.
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Tarheel_Dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 01:32 AM
Response to Reply #40
44. Folks like MS Liberal may very well be the "backbone of the party",
but she's a personal embarrasment to me. It is what it is.
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Liquorice Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 01:02 AM
Response to Reply #36
39. I would love to see Hillary do well in Mississippi! nt
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rodeodance Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 01:11 AM
Response to Reply #36
43. Bring all the neighborhoods:-)---
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provis99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 01:09 AM
Response to Original message
42. It's Mississippi; what would you expect?
Edited on Sat Mar-08-08 01:10 AM by provis99
No, I'm not insulting Mississippi, I'm simply stating reality.

When I lived there, we used to say "Mississippi doesn't have bad race relations; we have NO race relations."
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