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Bush loses to Kerry in November - Book it!

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kanrok Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 07:53 PM
Original message
Bush loses to Kerry in November - Book it!
I'm making my prediction here today, April 7, 2004. Bush will lose to Kerry by 8 percentage points or more. Yes, 8 percentage points or more! How do I know this? I feel it in my bones. The tide is turning and Bush is not only losing credibility, but he's losing core constituents. I've talked to at least 10 people in the past 3 weeks who I NEVER thought would vote for a Dem, and they are all disenchanted with Chimpy. I predict that we will all be wondering why we were worried about Bush and Rove. They will be crushed in November. The truth will out and we will arise victorious. Mark My Words.
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freetobegay Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 07:55 PM
Response to Original message
1. But will he lose the ability to have the election fixed?
eom
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codegreen Donating Member (827 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 07:56 PM
Response to Original message
2. Bush won't win one state!
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forgethell Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 07:59 PM
Response to Reply #2
8. Oh, he'll get Alabama
count on it.
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NNadir Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 08:10 PM
Response to Reply #8
15. Possibly not.
Reality sometimes trumps ideology, even in Alabama.

I'm looking for Kerry to carry all 50.
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forgethell Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 10:06 PM
Response to Reply #15
22. When
was the last time that anybody carried all the states? Kerry may well win, he might even have a landslide, but he won't carry Alabama. Think Dukakis.
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jsw_81 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-08-04 05:42 AM
Response to Reply #15
29. Don't hold your breath
This will be a very close election. We might even see a situation where Bush wins more states than Kerry while Kerry prevails (narrowly) in the electoral vote.
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FrankBooth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 08:30 PM
Response to Reply #8
20. Hey forgethell, you going to vote for Roy Barnes?
NM
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forgethell Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 10:02 PM
Response to Reply #20
21. No,
unless there's another Roy Barnes that I am not aware of, he's in Georgia. I vote in Alabama.
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FrankBooth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 11:42 PM
Response to Reply #21
25. For Prez?
We do that in every state.
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forgethell Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-08-04 08:29 AM
Response to Reply #25
31. Is he running?
I missed it somehow. No, I'll probably go for Kerry
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FrankBooth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-08-04 01:34 PM
Response to Reply #31
33. You can just write him in
NM
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forgethell Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-08-04 07:05 PM
Response to Reply #33
37. Why waste a vote?
What is the advantage of voting for this fellow?
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liberalpragmatist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-08-04 01:43 PM
Response to Reply #20
34. Do you mean Roy Moore?
Roy Barnes was the Dem governor of Georgia through 2003 - he lost the '02 election to Sonny Perdue. Incidentally, he was being talked abt as a possible Presidential contender. I don't think he would have, but even had he planned to, obviously his prospects declined some after losing in Georgia.
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AlinPA Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 08:05 PM
Response to Reply #2
14. Bush* will carry a lot of the south. And Rocky Mt states. n/t
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elperromagico Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 07:56 PM
Response to Original message
3. So, what would you predict as the percentages?
Kerry - 52%
Bush - 44%
Nader/Other - 4%

Something like that?
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PROGRESSIVE1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 07:58 PM
Response to Reply #3
6. One possibility:
Kerry - 51%
Bush - 46%
Nader - 3%
Other - 1%

:kick:
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elperromagico Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 08:00 PM
Response to Reply #6
11. If Kerry gets a majority (rather than just a plurality), I'll be happy.
Edited on Wed Apr-07-04 08:00 PM by elperromagico
After 12 years of Presidents elected with less than 50%, and one President "elected" without so much as winning, over 50% of the vote could confidently be referred to as a mandate.
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kanrok Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 07:58 PM
Response to Reply #3
7. That'll work.
I'll go with that. Is Vegas making book on this? I'm so freaking confident that I'll put up good money on this one.
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MSgt213 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 07:57 PM
Response to Original message
4. Kerry can't count on it though. He needs to step it up!!!
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fearnobush Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 07:57 PM
Response to Original message
5. Don't lose resolve, We need a 10% margin to overwhelm the stolen
Diebold BBV machines in November. Fight for Kerry as if your life depended on it.
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kanrok Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 08:01 PM
Response to Reply #5
12. My resolve is strengthened, bolstered and rock solid.
I'm not taking anything for granted, I'm just totally confident that we are right and we will win.
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neverborn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 11:39 PM
Response to Reply #5
24. I'm 17 -- My life DOES depend on it
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kanrok Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-08-04 12:22 AM
Response to Reply #24
27. You got that right.
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apnu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-08-04 01:49 PM
Response to Reply #5
35. Hell yeah
We need a massive voter turn out in November. The more people vote the less of a chance there it that extremist nutters will be in office.
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Striker Davies Donating Member (88 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 07:59 PM
Response to Original message
9. Correction: Kerry will probably have 8-10% more voters...
..voting for him, but the machines will record a strong win for Bush.

This whole "election" is nothing but a tatty pavane being danced out for the gullible who still think the US is a democracy.

You've got Bush for another 10-15 years, until he's removed by military force, not ballots.
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JaySherman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 07:59 PM
Response to Original message
10. They're starting to crack
With all the Nazi comparisons flying around, they're starting to look like the Nazi party post-Stalingrad 1944. Desperate, ineffective, and screwing up at every turn. Their whole grand neocon scheme, of which Iraq was the centerpiece, is collapsing around them. They're turning on each other to save their own skins (see Perle's new book, Howard Finemans's editorial today). They're still very dangerous though. I wouldn't put anything past them when their backs are up against the wall. We're not going to be safe until they're up against the wall in handcuffs.
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Layman Donating Member (138 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-08-04 06:54 AM
Response to Reply #10
30. The Bush Aministration Perp Walk and Historical Perspective
IMHO we need to look back to when Jack Kennedy had his run-in with the C.I.A. and the faction surrounding Allen Dulles. Instead of firing the lot JFK should have imprisoned them. We know from history the price he paid for his naive benevolence. These traitors need be brought to justice for our own survival or they'll come back to bite us on the ass or worse.
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Auntie Bush Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-08-04 07:17 PM
Response to Reply #10
38. And a dozen little holes pointing at them.
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BeatleBoot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 08:03 PM
Response to Original message
13. It Ain't Over Until His Brother Counts The Votes
Edited on Wed Apr-07-04 08:04 PM by BeatleBoot
Like the bumper sticker says...

We really need to stay vigilant and dilligent between now and November 2nd.

Seat belt on...helmet on...here we go...and we go together...

Time to take our country back!
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jfxgillis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 08:13 PM
Response to Original message
16. I booked it in March 2003:
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kanrok Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 08:30 PM
Response to Reply #16
19. No Joke?
I can put my money where my mouth (and heart)is?
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jfxgillis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 11:08 PM
Response to Reply #19
23. Yeah. I'm surprised you never heard of IEM
It's the granddaddy of all the "political futures" markets.

It's kind of hard to make a winning bet on Kerry now because the November "contracts" are based on percent of popular vote and even if he wins he won't get much over what he's paying now. But they'll issue "winner take all" contracts after the conventions, for which you can double your money approximately.
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RC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 08:25 PM
Response to Original message
17. What makes anyone even think
there will be any elections? And if there are and bu$h loses, that those elections will not be set aside because you can't change leaders in the middle of a war.
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kanrok Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 08:26 PM
Response to Reply #17
18. Reminds me of my favorite political button:
Edited on Wed Apr-07-04 08:27 PM by kanrok
Don't change Dick's in the middle of a screw: Vote for Nixon in '72.
On edit: I'm a "glass half full" kinda guy.
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katieforeman Donating Member (785 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-08-04 12:05 AM
Response to Original message
26. Totally agree.
Bush didn't really win the first time and he has turned off more people than he has won over during the past 3 years.

The information in the 9-11 commission reports make for a dmning case against Bush. He certainly can't run on 9-11 anymore.

He has done a terrible job in Iraq. he has pushed through an exterme agenda that most Americans disagree with. The deficit has exploded.

People don't trust him anymore. He can't claim to be a compassionate conservative or a uniter not a divider.

This could be a landslide. The race really is Kerry's to loose.
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GalleryGod Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-08-04 04:07 AM
Response to Original message
28. Waist Deep in Big Muddy!
Oh-you want to ssee some group "trash" the White House??? Wait'll you see This Crowd!? They'll have bon fires on the South Lawn destroying documents and "Delete that Memo Marathons" on the inside.

PUNKS just a bunch of PUNKS
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ArkDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-08-04 08:43 AM
Response to Original message
32. Your sample is bigger than some from Zogby!
.
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Nederland Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-08-04 01:58 PM
Response to Original message
36. Win? Yes. By 8 pts? Not gonna happen.
This will be a very close election. I'm betting you only think that Bush is doomed because all your friends are liberals.
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