VP Debunker: Bayh won't sell

[katieforeman]

From some of the comments I've heard coming from the Kerry camp, I have a sneaky suspicion that Evan Bayh is further up the short list than most of us realize. Kerry already tipped his hand when he said he could win without the South. We all know how important OH is, and Bayh has the policy wonkish qualities Kerry seems to value.

Here are some of the reasons Kerry may be considering Bayh so seriously:

Geography As a Democrat in a Midwestern Republican state, Bayh has a record of attracting ticket-splitters. Therefore, Bayh will help the ticket win moderate Republicans and independents in OH and other key Midwestern battleground states.

Debunker: There is absolutely no evidence that Bayh's ability to win Republican votes in an IN senate or governor race will translate into the ability to win votes for Kerry outside of IN in a presidential race. Voting for governor or senator is a very different decision than voting for a President. Furthermore, Bayh has no proven appeal outside of IN. He has no experience in a national campaign.

John Edwards, on the other hand, has proven his appeal to moderates and Independents. During the primaries he won among these groups in WI and other states. John Edwards has experience running a national campaign. He was beating President Bush by about 10 points in national polls, about the same as Kerry at the time, before he dropped out of the race.

Free media According to conventional wisdom, a surprise choice for VP generates more free media coverage. Furthermore, a surprise might send Republicans scrambling to change their strategy.

Debunker: This line of reasoning ignores the very real expectations and preference for John Edwards. Many of the Kerry voters and volunteers I spoke with seemed to be under the impression they were voting for a Kerry/Edwards ticket. According to exit polls, Edwards was the first choice for VP among 40% of primary voters. See www.draftkerryedwards.com for more polls.

This clear preference and expectation for a particular vp is unprecedented. Has there ever been a movement to draft a vp?

An unexpected but uninspired choice, has the potential to hit the ground with a thud, generating a wave of dissapointment rather than a wave of excitement. The media is already speculating that Kerry might not choose Edwards because he doesn't want to be upstaged by his running-mate. As one reporter put it, if Edwards isn't chosen it will be because he is a rock star. There may also be speculation that Kerry still held a grudge against Edwards over the primary campaign.
This kind of coverage nobody needs.

Furthermore, if George Bush has taught us anything it is that expectations matter. Bayh would be subjected to constant comparisons to Edwards.

Finally, if Kerry turns a deaf ear to the clearly expressed preference of the people who gave him the nomination, it may re-enforce the negative streotype of Kerry as aloof and out of touch.

Play for the Middle Bayh has executive experience and has balanced budgets as a governor. Bayh's record as a fiscal conservative will help nuetralize Bush's charges that Kerry is an old-style tax and spin liberal.

Debunker:Ultimately, people vote for President not vice-president. Voters really don't care whether or not Kerry's running mate has executive experience or is from a neighboring state. Kerry's running mate is important because his running mate affects the way voters see Kerry.

Kerry's choice of running-mate sends a message about his values. True, the selection of Bayh might send a signal about Kerry's fiscal conservatism. However, the seletion of Edwards sends a strong message that Kerry cares about jobs and working people. That's a more appealing message to many swing voters.

Kerry and his running mate will be interacting frequently in public. Edwards brings out Kerry's smile and warmth. Edwards helps people like and connect with Kerry. Bayh seems a little stiff and might re-enforce the notion that Kerry is aloof and out of touch.

Kerry's running-mate will be his top campaigner. Edwards is the best campaigner in the party today. As one of the most feared trial attorneys in NC, Edwards learned how to make a persuasive argument. Edwards is the best person to make the case for John Kerry every single day. Bayh is an unknown as a campaigner.

Kerry's name will be linked inextricably with that of his running-mate forming a sort of brand. The Kerry/Edwards brand evokes energy, optimism, courage and experience. Kerry/Bayh is a career politician brand.

Sometimes the obvious choice is also the best choice. Please, please Senator Kerry pick Edwards.

PS These arguments against Bayh also apply to Gov. Vilsek of IA and Gov Rendell of PA.

[senseandsensibility]

1. Bayh's so conservative !

Won't some of his votes come back to haunt him? And why has Clark disappeared from the radar screen? Isn't he being considered?

[dolstein]

5. He's a conservative only on the ridiculously skewed DU scale

By any reasonable standard, Bayh is a moderate. If you have a problem with moderates, fine. But there's no need to make stuff up.

[senseandsensibility]

8. Excuse me?

DU standards are not ridiculously scewed. You've been watching too much MSNBC. AND, I'm not making things up. Conservative is a relative term, which I'm free to use as I wish. If Bayh is your man, fine, but accusing me isn't going to win any converts.

[jsw_81]

26. Of course DU standards are ridiculously skewed

Fringe lefties like Kucinich and Sharpton were routinely getting 25-30 percent of the vote in DU's polls during the primary season. And anyone with any connection to the mainstream DLC was derided as a "Republican." Don't kid yourself: America is a lot more conservative than this little website.

[Freddie Stubbs]

43. Bayh voted against the Estrada nomination, repeal of the Estate Tax,

phasing out the tax on dividend income, and malpractice tort reform.

He voted in favor of affirming Roe v. Wade, prohibiting research into low-yield nuclear weapons, repealing President Reagan’s “Mexico City policy,” under which the U.S. refuses to fund international family planning organizations that promote abortion, requiring automobile manufacturers to increase the mileage of their cars, and forcing the United States into compliance with the Kyoto Treaty.

And that was just last year.

Are these the actions of a conservative?

[fujiyama]

24. I disagree

DU standards are definetely to the left of the real electorate, but I Bayh is still a conservative democrat. Bayh may be considered moderate though, by ridiculously skewed Indiana standards.

Not that there really is anything wrong with it per se (he's probably about as moderate as it gets in Indiana), but I really don't know what he brings as VP. Hell, I'd take Gephardt over Bayh and he really doesn't interest me much. You're right in saying its doubtful that he could deliever Indiana, even though he's well known. Also, he'd bring little if anything to Ohio and other midwestern states.

[LiberalFighter]

34. You got that straight...

Bayh may be considered moderate though, by ridiculously skewed Indiana standards.

[dolstein]

2. I'd be very surprised if Evan Bayh is selected

While Bayh has a terrific resume, having served two terms as governor and one as senator and having chaired the DLC, I would be very surprised if he was selected. For one thing, Bayh is seeking re-election to the Senate. For another, he won't win any red states for Kerry -- Indiana will go for Bush and all this talk about Bayh helping in the mid-west is bullshit. Bayh probably has far lower name recognition in Ohio than Kerry does. Finally, Bayh is much more moderate than Kerry. Now don't get me wrong -- he's no DINO, as certain DU'ers have claimed. He's a solid Democrat. But the Republicans will have a field day highlighting the inconsistencies between Bayh's voting record and Kerry's. So selecting Bayh will, in the end, only underscore just how liberal Kerry is. This awkwardness might be worth it if Bayh could deliver a state or rally an important constituency. But he can't.

[jsw_81]

27. So who would you recommend?

Joe Lieberman?

[dolstein]

40. Bill Richardson, if he'll take it

Bill Richardson has several things going for him.

First, he's obviously well qualified, having served in Congress, in Clinton's cabinet, at the UN and now as governor.

Second, he's pretty good on television and has a fairly low wuss quotient.

Third, he's from New Mexico, as state that Gore carried by only a few hundred votes in 2000. And nearby states like Arizona and Nevada may also be in play this year.

Fourth, he's a Hispanic. He'd be the first Hispanic on a major party national ticket.

Richardson is the only VP candidate whose selection could have a direct impact on Kerry's electoral vote totals.

After Richardson, I'd go with Edwards. I don't think picking Edwards will help Kerry carry any Southern state. I don't think ANYONE can help Kerry carry any Southern state (including Florida). But Edwards has proven himself to be a disciplined and effective campaigner. Plus, he's likable. And if anyone can come up with a coherent, concise and compelling argument for why Kerry should be president, Edwards can.

[against all enemies]

3. Why

am I not excited? Is Bob Graham achoice, good or bad?

[David Dunham]

4. Bayh is a VP candidate most Americans would be comfortable with.

I still prefer Edwards, though.

[ezee]

10. Edwards

would be my choice. I think he can relate to the people in OH and I think that his message relates in there minds. Then H Clinton can run with him in 8yrs.

[katieforeman]

15. Totally agree.

I accidentally hit post instead of preview so the original post did not include my arguments debunking Bayh and pushing Edwards instead. I've now edited the post with arguments against Bayh and for Edwards.

Edwards is hands down the best choice. He would be absolutely invincible in 20012 with 8 years vp experience under his belt.

If you go to www.draftkerryedwards.com you can sign a petition to draft Edwards.

[King of New Orleans]

18. I wondered why

you of all people wwere trying to make such a strong case for Bayh.

I do think Edwards is the best fit for VP with Kerry. I think Clark belongs on a foreign policy team with Holbrooke and others so that the Kerry adminstration can start cleaning up the mess the day he takes office.

[katieforeman]

20. Totally agree.

Clarke and Holbrook will certainly have their work cut out for them. What a tragic mess.

[katieforeman]

17. Me too.

Bayh might send more people to Nader but most in the middle would be indifferent to Bayh. He wouldn't offend them, but he wouldn't attract too many either.

Edwards would a positive vote getter in many battleground states.

I accidentally hit post instead of preview before I was finished. If you read the post now, it debunks the arguments for Bayh and argues for Edwards instead.

[dolstein]

7. I'm afraid Bob Graham would be a disaster

I was one of Graham's biggest boosters on DU until I finally saw him on the campaign trail. Suddenly I understood why he had been passed over for VP on three different occasions. I believe he'll go four for four.

[TheFarseer]

13. did anyone see

Bob Graham on the Daily Show singing "you've got a friend in Bob Graham" with (I think) Steven Colbert? He cannot be the VP for that reason alone!

[katieforeman]

21. On c-span, I heard him sing at a campaign event in IA.

I was so embarassed for him I had to turn it off.

Personally, I think his quirks are kind of charming. He is also very intelligent and would be a capable vp. However, he would be a disaater on the campaign trail.

[girl gone mad]

6. Rightfully or wrongfully, Kerry is afraid to..

take a strong stand against the misdoings in Iraq, which is why it is essential that he puts an anti-war candidate on the ticket. We need to go after Bush on this issue. Clark would be my first choice.

[against all enemies]

9. Is there a

state that Clark would bring into the fold? I like the guy (Clark) but he has to deliver something in the election.

[dolstein]

11. No

Some people have suggested that Clark could help Kerry carry Arkansas, but I don't see any evidence of that.

[ezee]

12. Clark

will be great in a cabinet position. Say defense or state. He is a VERY smart and careful man.

[eileen from OH]

14. Ohioans don't have a bloody clue

who Bayh is. The Midwest is NOT a monolithic cultural area as the "South" supposedly is. A politico from one Midwest state can mean next to nothing to a neighboring state.

This is the kind of thinking that makes me gnash my teeth.

Hell, GEPHARDT is better known here than Bayh - and (gasp) he ain't from the Midwest. I really hope they actually have someone who KNOWS the Midwest in on the VP decision making process. Because this kind of thinking is wrong.

eileen from OH

[katieforeman]

16. Couldn't agree with you more.

I'm from Dayton OH and went to college in Wooster, OH.

My friends in family in OH love John Edwards and are absolutely baffled by this line of thinking. However, I fear that Kerry may be listening to political consultants and doesn't have a very good handle on real OH voters.

I accidentally hit post instead of preview before I was finished with my post. If you read the post now, it has been updated to debunk the arguments for Bayh and argue in favor of Edwards instead.

Edwards will help us win in OH and many other battleground states. We would be crazy to pass him up.

[IndianaGreen]

22. Ohioans can have Bayh if they so choose

As sure as hell don't want him in any political office. Bayh is our Zell Miller.

[jsw_81]

28. Newsflash: Gephardt is from the midwest

[LiberalFighter]

35. Politicians from neighboring states are...

not in the minds of the most voters. It is more likely that those that are more politically savvy would be aware and even then would not necessarily know enough to explain their issues.

[JI7]

19. how about Wes Clark ?

i see both positives and negatives for Kerry ticket with both Clark and Edwards as vp, but in different areas. the positives concerning edwards isn't really based on "logic" though.

it's much easier to say what clark would bring to the ticket, which is obviously national security/foreign policy experience. i know edwards would not bring this but i still think FOR KERRY edwards might be the best choice. when i think of who would be best vp i base it on who is best for kerry not just who will be best vp which is probably why i think edwards might be best. for example, while i see Kerry/Edwards as one of the best tickets at this point, i don't see Edwards/Kerry ticket being as good even though i know Kerry would make a good vp. this is kind of how i feel with Kerry/Clark. i know clark would be a very good vp, but i think the Kerry/Edwards ticket is stronger. in the end Kerry will decide based on what he thinks will help him get elected. this is why i can see why evan bayh may be considered. but understand that some reports say he hasn't even really started vp search yet. i think it's better at this point anyways, kerry needs to work on his agenda and just presenting himself at this point.

i don't have 1 clear favorite, but i have a few top ones that i see as good choices.i also like to read different analysis of different candidates and why they would be good or bad even though it will only matter what Kerry does in this area in the end. and my picks are based more on what will help get Kerry elected more than who will make a good vp.

[katieforeman]

23. You're right the issue is who is the best fit for Kerry.

Who is the candidate who will help Kerry win with the largest margin possible and with the longest coattails?

Clark is a brilliant man with a lot of foreign policy experience, but Kerry already has a lot of foreign policy experience. Some people say that Clark's military experience will highlight Kerry's own military service. However, I just don't buy that argument. Most people will know that Kerry served and Bush didn't with or without Clark on the ticket.

Furthermore, Clark being on the ticket might forcus the debate too much on national security leaving less time to talk about jobs, health care, the deficit, and the economy. These will be important issues because even if the economy contiues to grow and the job numbers continue to improve, the underlying sense of economic insecurity that many Americans feel will certainly still be there in November.

Many Americans are burdened with crushing personal debt. Many Americans don't have health insurance and those who do have health insurance are afraid of loosing it. Bankruptcies are up etc.

Financial capital can flow across borders almost instantaneously. People can't. The result has been that capital now has more bargaining power relative to labor. This has kept real wages down. None of this is going to change by November.

Edwards knows how to campaign on these economic issues better than Clark.

Even on foreign policy and national security issues people underestimate Edwards. This election is really about framing an argument and making a case against George Bush and for John Kerry. Edwards does this better than anyone even on issues of national security.

Who would be a good vp once Kerry is elected? I think any of the candidates kerry is considering meet the threshhold to be a capable vp. However, once again I think people tend to underestimate what Edwards has to offer.

Edwards has experience with the US Congress and good relationships with members on both sides of the aisle. Clark doesn't have any experience here.

Edwards has a lot of knowledge and has done a lot of legislative work on issues like: reforming our intelligence services, securing our chemical and nuclear plants, securing our infrastructure and our ports. The 9-11 commission hearings make it very clear that these are important national security issues now. Edwards' experience on the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence would be very valuable. Kerry himself has said that the war on terror is primarily an intelligence and law enforcement function.

Edwards has great political skills and is very good at framing a message. This could be invaluable help for Kerry to get his agenda through Congress.

Finally, Edwards life experience-growing up in a milltown, working his way through college, representing ordinary Americans in courtrooms-could provide Kerry with a perspective he doesn't normally have access too.

Kerry cares deeply about the problems of the poor and working class and he has very good policies for helping them. However, he spent much of his childhood overseas. By his own admission he attended schools for the priveleged. He's married to an heiress and he has spent a lifetime in politics. Most of his interaction with working class Americans was in Vietnam, which is very different from everyday life. Edwards could help Kerry communicate better with ordinary Americans because Edwards has spent more time with ordinary Americans.

[elperromagico]

36. One thing's pretty certain: Bayh wouldn't give us Indiana.

Indiana will still be going Republican when Hitler's shoveling snow in Hell.

[jsw_81]

25. I disagree completely

Evan Bayh would be an outstanding running mate for John Kerry. This is a guy who has won several statewide victories by landslide margins in a Republican state; that's pretty darn impressive. And even if he can't deliver Indiana, he'll definitely give Kerry an enormous boost in Ohio and other midwestern states. Edwards, on the other hand, is unlikely to deliever even a single state in his native south.

[Thrill]

29. Choosing Bayh would upset

a big part of the base. The womens Rights folks don't like him. We heard about it when he was thought to be on Gore's list. Forget about it. Also he voted for the tax cuts and the war. He can only hurt the ticket.

[katieforeman]

30. I'm from OH and I don't think Bayh helps theres.

There's no evidence that Bayh's wins in IN would help Kerry in OH.

Bayh had the advantage of being from a well-known political family when he ran for Gov the first time. In his second run for Gov, he had the advantage of incumbency and in his Senate race he had the advantage of name recognition.

Voters evaluate candidates for President differently than they evaluate candidates for Senate or Governor.Being Governor is about management. Being Senator is about representing your state. Ideaology is not as important in these races.

I spent most of my life in OH. As a former OH voter myself, I really don't think people in OH will care if Kerry's vp is from IN. That won't sway them one way or another.

[LiberalFighter]

37. Landslide Margins in a Republican state?

Democrats have won other state-wide races in the last 10-15 years. Frank O'Bannon elected Governor and won re-election by a bigger margin 56-42 in 2000 than Bayh. In addition, there has been a sea of change in local politics since about 1999 when both Indianapolis and Fort Wayne elected Democratic mayors and re-elected them again by wider margins. But there is also a difference between a national office vs a local/state office.

• 1986 Secretary of State
  
  • Bayh 828,494 (53.32%)
    
  • Bowen 704,952 (45.37%)
    
    • Ran against son of former governor Otis Bowen?
      
  
  
• 1988 Governor 1st term
  
  • Bayh 1,138,574 (53.19%)
    
  • Mutz 1,002,207 (46.82%)
    
    • Ran against 2 term Lt. Governor
      
  
  
• 1992 Governor 2nd term
  
  • Bayh 1,382,151 (62.01%)
    
  • Pearson 822,533 (36.90%)
    
    • Ran as incumbent against Attorney General (1985-1993)
      
  
  
• 1998 US Senator 1st term
  
  • Bayh 1,012,244 (63.72%)
    
  • Helmke 552,732 (34.79%)
    
    • Ran against 3 term Ft Wayne mayor
      
    • Helmke lost 2002 primary against nut case 4th District Representative Mark Souder -- If he couldn't beat Mark Souder!!
      

The only way that a Kerry/Bayh ticket would win Indiana is if gw* poll numbers continue to plummet. If that happens then a Kerry/Bayh ticket would not be necessary. And Bayh would not have that much of an influence on the neighboring states. It would be better for Kerry to have a quality VP.

• President Indiana Results
  
  • 2000
    
    • Gore 901,980 (41.0%)
      
    • Bush 1,245,836 (56.6%)
    
    
  • 1996
    
    • Clinton 874,668 (36.8%)
      
    • Dole 995,082 (42.9%)
    
    
  • 1992
    
    • Clinton 848,420 (36.8%)
      
    • Bush 989,375 (42.9%)
    
    
  • 1988
    
    • Dukakis 860,643 (40%)
      
    • Bush 1,297,763 (60%)

[PROGRESSIVE1]

31. NO!!! Bayh is the only Democrat that can keep that Senate seat...

in Indiana!

He has to stay in the Senate!

[katieforeman]

33. Good point.

[beyurslf]

32. Kathleen Sebelius of KS meets that criteria.

Gov. elected staewide 3 times (twice as insurance commissioner--a position held by Republicans and "handed down" to a hand picked successor for 50 years until she won).

Conservative state
Father was Gov of...OHIO.

[farmbo]

38. Debunk this: Bayh is a blow- dried, bone-headed, DLC As*hole!!

The only ticket he would help is Ralph Nader's.

[Freddie Stubbs]

47. Gotta watch out for those blow-dried DLCers

[LiberalFighter]

39. Here is Guardian Unlimited's pick on Bayh

Evan Bayh
Indiana senator
Pros: Moderate who could deliver own state and neighbouring swing states.
Cons: Bland speaker who may appear lightweight faced with Dick Cheney.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/gallery/image/0,8543,-1010487...

[dolstein]

41. The Guardian is obviously clueless

<<Pros: Moderate who could deliver own state and neighbouring swing states.>>

Sorry, but even Bayh would have a difficult time carrying Indiana against Bush. No way Kerry carries it, regardless of who he picks as VP.

[LiberalFighter]

42. I agree... but they also consider him bland

I am in the process of compiling news and articles pertaining to Bayh.

[PATRICK]

46. The only candidate

besides Lieberman as Veep who could help Cheney sleep the night before the debate and well into the debate. The only up side is that it would lure Cheney onto TV in the first place and give him confidence to stay on the ticket to Bush's disadvantage.

You don't choose a Veep based on negatives however, at least not in our party and expect to gain from it. The chief problem with Bayh from emotional bearing to his DLC ideals is that his position was ruined and raped by the destruction of the middle ground once Bush/Cheney entered the White House. Not once did the now forgotten fable of a bipartisan coalition in the middle(DINOS, RINOS and pragmatists) ever have a chance to become a power broker. In fact, it was revealed that this party blurring myth had no ability or nature to fight and use power in the first place.

We already have a wilder melding of parties in New York, as if conservatives and liberals had gotten blended in a malfunctioning Star Trek transporter. Those less moderate dog and ponies have only shown what the results of stagnation and blameshifting can be as we enjoy the worst of all worlds while the money lasts.

Bayh is sincere in his choices, and sincerely out of tune with the times. Though he criticizes Bush and opposes his worst policies this is the guy who- flabbergasted and demoralized- admiringly called Bush a "genius"- as if it took a genius with incredible chutzpah to brush the moderates aside. That tells me a lot about Bayh and Lieberman and their judgment about playing elementary hardball politics. #$@%^& clueless. Capable of undercutting Kerry.

[PATRICK]

48. Bayh and Daschle

Whatever other reason there is for Daschle to be leading the Senate, he has had little to no rational underpinning with the marginalization and utter irrelevance of bipartisan coalitions in the critical battles in the Senate. The minor resuscitation with Jeffords' neutralization in June and targeting by the GOP rallied a false life into this damaging weak leadership that has falsely typified the party.

Why on earth a vulnerable Senator with moderate views and weak power should lead his party in the Senate(our sole avenue for sanity) is a scandal- and that it is not even necessary to say anything bad about most of his votes or stands.

If given that Daschle is still the best option that is not such a hot commentary on the party either. No one is considering him for Veep or anything else in the executive.

My usual disclaimer about the DLC. Mainly the problem lies in its warped applications by committee(not elected governemnt officials)gurus who think playing right field is center field- and keep dropping the balls hit at them. Unhappily those excellent governors etc. who are happy members of this group have made their only bad decisions based on DLC philosophy.

[LiberalFighter]

49. If you can get me a link to Bayh's statement of gw* being a genius

I would appreciate it. Looking to compile news and articles about Bayh.

[hippiechick]

44. Said it before, I'll say it again ...

I LIVE in Indiana, and Bayh is nothing more than a pretty boy, empty suit, talking head living off his daddy's name.

He's Dan Quayle all over again.

[Nashyra]

45. No on Edwards

His malpractice lawyer experience while as noble as it was will come back and bite the ticket in the ass. He is not experienced enough in Foreign policy or National security and he has served less than one term. The repukes will have a field day with him. And yes I am partial to Clark because i have a draft age son and I live in a very Repuke area and he is the only candidate that they liked before he dropped out, they will vote for Kerry if Clark is on the ticket. That being said there are others better than Edwards if not Clark. And Clark is very strong in some of the swing states, he is very popular in Ohio and had the backing of the Mayor of Columbus, I spend alot of time there as my husbands family is from there.