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What are your predictions for turnout in November?

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elperromagico Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 08:15 PM
Original message
What are your predictions for turnout in November?
I heard one of the talking heads (maybe Russert) talking about turnout as high as 120 million. I don't think it will be that high - it might be 110 million, though.

What are your predictions? For the sake of comparison, here are the turnouts from the last five elections:

2000: 105,417,116
1996: 96,275,401
1992: 104,423,903
1988: 91,594,686
1984: 92,653,233
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PROGRESSIVE1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 08:16 PM
Response to Original message
1. 112 MILLION
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David Dunham Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 08:17 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. That sounds about right.
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kanrok Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 08:22 PM
Response to Original message
3. If Timmy the Gerbil is right, Kerry wins big
The more the merrier. I'll go with Little Timmy: 120 million! (If you're gonna be a bear, be a grizzly...words that I live by).
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Postman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 08:23 PM
Response to Original message
4. Kerry wins in a landslide.
if things keep going the way they are....
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Grown2Hate Donating Member (833 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 08:25 PM
Response to Original message
5. I think it will be abnormally HIGH...
I have SEVERAL friends (and hell, even MYSELF) voting for the FIRST time ever, essentially because of our utter LOATHING for Bush and what he's doing to this country. I know SEVERAL other people that also have friends they're "dragging" with them to the polls in November (people that do WANT to vote, but are likely to forget or fail to... I have a few friends like that that I'm literally DRIVING to the polling place). So, based on my smallish circle, I think a LOT of people are going to vote. 115 million?
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Mayberry Machiavelli Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 10:36 PM
Response to Reply #5
12. Welcome to DU, Grown!
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July Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-09-04 08:18 PM
Response to Reply #5
15. You give us hope.
Please do get these people to the polls. Otherwise, sheep who get out there for their fearless leaders decide our futures.

We're in this together, glad to know you and your friends are doing something with your Bush loathing, I'm there with you.
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FeebMaster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 08:29 PM
Response to Original message
6. Lower than ever.
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elperromagico Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 08:30 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. What makes you say that?
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FeebMaster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 08:33 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. Just a hunch. (nt)
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Toby109 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 08:49 PM
Response to Original message
9. I think it will be at least 120 million
Either way, many people recognize that this election might be the most important in their lifetimes. I know I have talked a few people into voting who never did or would before.
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Null Pointer Donating Member (108 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 09:38 PM
Response to Reply #9
10. 110 Million
But keep in mind that just because more people vote, doesn't necessarily mean they're angry at The Governor of Texas ( I choose to call him by the title he last won). There are LOADS of Governor supporters all over the country and they'll be fired up to vote for this lunatic because Jesus told them to. Trust me. This thing will be VERY close.
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newyawker99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-08-04 08:49 AM
Response to Reply #10
14. Hi Rainless Blur!!
Welcome to DU!! :toast:
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cally Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 09:52 PM
Response to Original message
11. A little off topic, but sort of the same subject
I went to the Department of Motor Vehicles today. Unfortunately, I've been way to often. Every previous time, I never saw someone register to vote. During my 45 minute wait today, I saw two people register. Both were determined to get registered. It was much more important to them than the DMV business. I live in a very liberal area.
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dolstein Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 10:54 PM
Response to Original message
13. I predict we'll hear a lot of crap about how long the lines are
The DU message board will be flooded with posts from people claiming that the lines at their polling place were the longest they have ever been, and predicing record turnout. And in the end, the actual turnout figures will be nothing out of the ordinary.

This happens every election.
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wuushew Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-09-04 08:36 PM
Response to Reply #13
16. Was that a jab at the primary turnouts?
Primary turnouts were high, there were lines.
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Gramps Donating Member (34 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-09-04 09:47 PM
Response to Reply #16
17. Don't fool yourself. Turnout has been low, unfortunately...
"An estimated 10.3 million people in 19 states and the District of Columbia cast votes in Democratic primaries through March 2, constituting just 11.4 percent of the electorate, said the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate. The nonpartisan, nonprofit research organization specializes in voter turnout issues... ...this year's turnout was lower than the turnout for comparable primaries since 1964 and less than half the turnout of 24.3 percent in 1968 and 23.1 percent in 1972, the organization reported."

http://www.news-leader.com/today/0310-StudyPrima-35512....
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mobuto Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-09-04 10:37 PM
Response to Original message
18. 360 million*
*However 240,000,000 of those will be found in the basement of a county courthouse in the Florida panhandle. Elections officials will be puzzled by the surprisingly high turnout, but lacking clear evidence of fraud, they'll certify the results anyway.
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MoonRiver Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-09-04 10:41 PM
Response to Original message
19. Record breaking. (Sorry, I don't do numbers.)
I also predict we'll (by that I mean Kerry supporters) win, barring BBV shenanigans.
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Nicholas_J Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-10-04 01:07 AM
Response to Original message
20. I think it will go up near
120 million. A lot of voters who were disenfranchised iaround the country will certainly be coming out this time, and the black community has been coming out in record numbers for the primaries this year. As black voters and hispanics area are one of the largest groups who solidly vote democrat, and since Bush has lost a lot of the Hispanic support that helped put him over the top in certain areas, or just go over it by a few hundred votes in Florida, no matter what the Mason Dixon poll said recently, it s going tobe hard going for Bush in the southwest, in California, in Florida, and in a lot of states in the Great Lkaes area which has a growing Hispanic Population. In California, less that 17 percent of Hispanic voters classify thmeselves as Republican, and right now Kerry's support among Hispanics in California is much higher than his support among Hispanics at the national level. Miami Herald and the Annual Hispanic poll just showed Kerry recieving 57 percent of the Hispanic vote nationwide, with Bush getting 33 percent which is down from the percentage he recieved in 2000. Up until 2000, the registered Republicans were in a clear minority in the U.S. and it was largely swing Democrats who have been responsible for Republicans winning any election before the 1990's. A lot of those swing voters Democrats were socially conservative and fiscally liberal democrats who bought into Bush's Compassionate Conservative routine, and have been sorely disappointed by many of the cuts to Social Programs that Hispanics and Blacks largely support. If Bush cannot raise his percentage of the Hispanic vote significantly above 35 percent, and get it close to 40 percent there is no way that the Republicans can carry enough Hispanics to win either the popular vote or the electoral vote in the states mentioned above. Even in Texas, the polls are not very good at incliding hispanics, and the Hispanic voting bloc is becoming larger and larger in that state. Many Hispanic Texans supported Republicans until recently and that support appears to be plummeting. The only thing that has enabled the Republican party to have close to a fifty percent share of the electotate has been the fact that they have been draining a fair percentage of minority Democrats over to vote republican. But given the polling stats that show that the percentage of Democrats who indicate that they would vote republican is doen to one third of what similar polls said in 2000, it looks like Bush will be facing a very, very hard uphill battle for re-election.
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