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Why is the AFL-CIO helping Spector?

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ludwigb Donating Member (789 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 07:26 AM
Original message
Why is the AFL-CIO helping Spector?
Warning-right-wing source.
http://www.nationalreview.com/geraghty/geraghty20040406...

I don't understand the strategy here. Liberal interest groups should remain neutral, or cross over to help Toomey, who is more likely to lose in November and won't help Bush among moderates in Penn.

It seems to me that having Spector as the GOP candidate makes it more likely that 1) the seat will stay GOP and 2) Bush will win Penn
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JI7 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 07:30 AM
Response to Original message
1. right winger santorum is from pennsylvania, they don't want to risk
getting toomey in office. he might be more "likely" to lose, but no gaurantee.
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Bombtrack Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 08:42 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. But there is almost garentee of Hoeffel losing if Toomey isn't the nominee
At the very least, the AFL-CIO should remain neutral, just as the author of this post said.
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JI7 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 10:12 AM
Response to Reply #2
4. it's worse for toomey to win than hoeffel to lose
i think that's how they see it. they don't want any chance of toomey getting in.
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Bombtrack Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 10:28 AM
Response to Reply #4
5. I think that the GOP and dem strategist community are better judges than
the AFL-CIO. Bush and the RSC are behind Specter, despite the fact that they would prefur a senator Toomey to a Senator Specter, because a CANDIDATE Specter is so much more likely to hurt not only their senate prospects, but Bush's chances of winning Pennsylvania and therefor the whitehouse as well.
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mrgorth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 11:21 AM
Response to Reply #5
8. Do you live here?
Do you have any idea how frightening the idea of Sanitarium AND Toomey being our senators is? A lot of PA is conservative and Hoeffel may very well lose.
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ludwigb Donating Member (789 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 11:44 AM
Response to Reply #5
12. It seems the GOP have us beat in this regard
Our interest groups appear much more concerned with appearing independent, to the detriment of good strategy.
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Freddie Stubbs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 12:05 PM
Response to Reply #12
15. It's not about appearing independent, its about public policy
Specter votes with the AFL-CIO almost 2/3 of the time. They would rather play it safe with a guy who will vote with him most of the time than risk having someone who who will vote with them almost none of the time.
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Freddie Stubbs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 11:58 AM
Response to Reply #2
14. Sometimes half a loaf is better than no loaf at all
With Specter the AFL-CIO gets someone who votes with them almost 2/3 of the time. With Toomey as the GOP nominee they risk having someone who will vote with them less that 10% of the time.

And if you don't think that Pennsylvania is capable of electing a right-winger to the US Senate, I would like to remind you of this guy:

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Freddie Stubbs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 08:54 AM
Response to Original message
3. Specter is pretty liberal
and when it comes to issues important to unions, he usually votes like a Democrat. They would rather have him that risk electing Toomey, who never votes for the union position.
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mobuto Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 10:30 AM
Response to Reply #3
6. He's not liberal
He spouts "moderate" rhetoric but he votes a lot more like his Republican brethren than he does like any Democrat I know. You could make your argument about Lincoln Chafee, but not Specter. Moreover, Specter's a pretty damn smart guy. He's too smart to vote the way he votes.

The AF of L wants to show they're not a tool of the Democratic Party, and of course they're not going to campaign for Toomey. But I still think they should sit this one out. How can a man who consistently votes for Judd Gregg as chairman of the Health, Education Labor, and Pensions Committee be good for organized labor?
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ludwigb Donating Member (789 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 11:42 AM
Response to Reply #6
11. Exactly
Spector is not particuarly moderate when he's still mostly voting the GOP line.
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Freddie Stubbs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 11:51 AM
Response to Reply #6
13. He votes with the AFL-CIO almost 2/3 of the time
http://www.aflcio.org/issuespolitics/votes/member.cfm?s...

Which is not that far below Democrats like Mary Landreau.
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JVS Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 10:41 AM
Response to Original message
7. Because their job is to protect their membership, not to do Dems' bidding
If Toomey gets nominated then they will be in a situation where their members will need the Democrat to win. If Spector is the nominee then the members of the union are ok no matter who wins.
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dolstein Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 11:29 AM
Response to Original message
9. Actually, Specter winning could be good news for Kerry
Bush has endorsed Specter. If Specter wins, Toomey's right-wing supporters may decide to sit out the general election.
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ludwigb Donating Member (789 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 11:41 AM
Response to Reply #9
10. Maybe so
I hadn't thought of it that way.
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ButterflyBlood Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 02:26 PM
Response to Reply #9
19. good point
also, Specter might be beatable. He has always fared worse in presidential years than non. In 1992, his last serious challenge, he only got 49% facing an opponent from the Philly metro area. Since the primary has forced him to spend his war chest, and he has another opponent from the Philly metro area that should cut into his usual margin of wins within the suburbs, I think he can be beat. It'd be tougher than Toomey, but probably better for the Democrats overall.
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JohnKleeb Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-08-04 11:48 AM
Response to Reply #9
21. I like the way you think about Tomney supporters
However I find that one big advantage the republicans have over us is that they can unite easier however, hopefully this will happen number 1 and number 2, Arlen Specter traditionally does worse in presidential election years. In 1992 he beat his Dem candiate by only 49-46% and he outspent her 2-1.
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TheDonkey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 12:41 PM
Response to Original message
16. We need Hoeffel in no matter who wins the R side
PA has enough Rs in DC representing us.

Toomey would be destroyed by Hoeffel in a state-wide race. Philly loves Hoeffel.

Santorum winning was a cruel joke, his opponent Klink was ridiculously bad.
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Freddie Stubbs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 01:20 PM
Response to Reply #16
17. Santorum was elected twice to the Senate
He initially defeated Harris Wofford, who was a sitting Senator who had defeated a former Governor just three years before in a special election.
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NewJerseyDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 02:23 PM
Response to Original message
18. The AFL-CIO isn't a partisan organization
Specter tends to be an ally of labor and the AFL-CIO wants to keep any republican allies of theirs in the senate. I'm sure they would prefer Hoeffel but they certainly don't want Toomey in the senate. Their job isn't to strategize about how if Specter loses than Hoeffel might have a better chance. They are just going to support the best candidate in an individual race and Specter in a pure matchup with Toomey is clearly better. Now, I hope that Toomey does win because I seriously doubt that he can win statewide but the AFL-CIO has to reward any republican who even occasionally helps them out.
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Freddie Stubbs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-08-04 08:29 AM
Response to Reply #18
20. Some people believe that unions are an auxiliary of the Democratic Party
But their job is to look out for their members. Usually that is accomplished by supporting Democrats and their policies, but not always. Some unions are supporting drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge because it would create more union jobs.
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