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Has any democrat won the WH withOUT Pennsylvania?

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fujiyama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 02:27 AM
Original message
Has any democrat won the WH withOUT Pennsylvania?
After looking at the map on Edwards' website (I love that map), I've come to the conclusion that PA and FL really are the keys for Bush to win this.

Even if we win OH and WV, it's very unlikely that the democrats will win without PA. Of course this is assuming neither NV nor AZ move.

So, PA is the one blue state that worries me. I know WI showed some signs of going to the right, but I seriously doubt that state would go for Bush. Nader won't be big there as well this time.

PA OTOH is filled with loonies in the middle of the state and they've demonstrated they can put loonies in statewide offices in recent years (ie Santorum).

All in all, Kerry MUST win PA to have a realistic chance at winning this.
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JI7 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 02:30 AM
Response to Original message
1. John Kerry's wife is from pennsylvania
i think she is still registered to vote in that state. but she lived in pennsylvania with her first husband who was senator from that state. she is smart and seemed to have a very good understanding of iowa so i'm sure she has a good understanding of pennsylvania and how to reach out to voters in that state and help kerry win the state. they also have a democratic governor, ed rendell now who can help. and of course labor unions in that state should help.
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rabid_nerd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 02:37 AM
Response to Original message
2. PLEASE PLEASE help the Pennsylvania Young Democrats
An illness of the President from 2000-2003 has left the organization without funds.

My sig has a link to our first big fundraiser (we have literally NO money) with the Lt. Governor confirmed and every state-wide candidate invited.

We're not a PAC either (yet, to my knowledge, we haven't been and our invitations don't mention any)

We're hosting the Mid-Atlantic regional YDA conference in Philly later this year.

Our next state-wide meeting is in State College in June (same time, place as state committee.
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maisey03 Donating Member (67 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-08-04 09:40 AM
Response to Reply #2
15. Young Democrats
I was just curious, what is the age requirement to join the Young Democrats? What kind of things do you do?
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Bombtrack Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 03:05 AM
Response to Original message
3. Air America is coming to Philly "soon". Hopefully it will be well before
the election. That should give us somewhat of a bump.

I also reccomend: http://www.edwardsforprez.com/map.html

If we could let off a 100 mile wide republican neutron Bomb on that upper sliver of West Virginia between Cleveland and Pittsburgh we'd be all set.
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Josh Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 10:16 AM
Response to Original message
4. Truman, and Wilson (both times) - but that was a LONG time ago -
even Carter won it in 1976.
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mobuto Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 11:18 AM
Response to Reply #4
7. Grover Cleveland won twice without PA too
or Ohio or Michigan. Of course he did so with a solid South.

But that's it. In the history of our Party, only three Democrats have won without Pennsylvania, and they've all done so by winning every state in the South.
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Freddie Stubbs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-08-04 07:33 AM
Response to Reply #4
12. Carter won Pennsylvania in 1976
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WI_DEM Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 10:25 AM
Response to Original message
5. in the modern democratic party--no
When Wilson won in 1916 without NY or Pa, it was because we had a solid south and much of the west including states like Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, Colorado, Nevada, and Utah were Democratic states at the time.

Truman also won without NY and Pa in '48 but won enough of the south, west, and critical states of the midwest (Mn, Ia, Oh, Il) to win the election.

Dems can't count on the south anymore which means we have to almost guarantee we win states like Pennsylvania to get an electoral vote plurality.
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Freddie Stubbs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 11:12 AM
Response to Original message
6. Truman won in '48 without Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania is a swing state. It usually votes for the guys who is elected President. I doubt that Kerry can win without it, unless he carries Florida.
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mndemocrat_29 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 11:35 AM
Response to Original message
8. I am also worried about Pennsylvania
Where I was once worried about Minnesota being the most likely state to turn, I think that it is becoming a close, but Democratic state for 2004. Pennsylvania, on the other hand, is going to be close (mainly because of Nader). However, this could be attributed to the slew of Republican ads being aired on the behalfs of Specter-Toomey Primary.

Hopefully Nader's small but pivotal support will go to Kerry in the upcoming months.
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mobuto Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 11:42 AM
Response to Reply #8
9. Pennsylvania and Ohio are identical
PA has 21 electoral votes, Ohio has 20. If Ohio goes Dem and Pennsylvania goes Republican, Kerry still can win if he can pick up New Hampshire, West Virginia, Arizona, Arkansas, Missouri, Florida, etc.

Remember please that Kerry has spent almost no time to date in Pennsylvania, concentrating his efforts in other rust-belt states. Bush on the other hand has been practically living in PA. As the campaign heats up I think you'll find Kerry contesting the state more and the numbers will start to move back in Kerry's direction. Its a real tossup.
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mndemocrat_29 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 11:43 AM
Response to Reply #9
10. Personally, I'd feel better if we won both
n/t
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mobuto Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-07-04 11:56 AM
Response to Reply #10
11. Well of course
My point was simply that there's enough at stake that no one tossup state is a must-win for Kerry. Although anything can change between now and November, if I had to guess, I'd wager that Kerry wins both PA and OH. He just doesn't necessarily have to.
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LynneSin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-08-04 10:06 AM
Response to Reply #9
18. BITE YOUR TONGUE!!!!!
PA will go democratic! In fact PA has been democratic the last 3 elections whereas Ohio has not.

:mad:
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maisey03 Donating Member (67 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-08-04 10:41 AM
Response to Reply #18
20. Bill Clinton
I was just thinking that Clinton won both PA and Ohio twice - wonder what he secret was? Maybe Kerry will get him invloved somehow. I'm hearing that some of his plans are a lot like Clinton's. Hope he makes sure that people know this and also that he has Clinton's support.
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jsw_81 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-08-04 08:02 AM
Response to Original message
13. FDR lost Pennsylvania in '32
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Freddie Stubbs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-08-04 08:49 AM
Response to Reply #13
14. But he won 43 other states
I don't think that is a likely scenario for Kerry this time.
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maisey03 Donating Member (67 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-08-04 09:50 AM
Response to Original message
16. I always thought...
that PA was a Democratic state. I don't know why - I guess because Cleveland is close by and it is fairly liberal. Just like Cinci is close to Indiana (conservative), and it's fairly conservative. It was sad to see on the electoral map that PA is leaning Republican. It was one of the few states that Gore managed to win. He was only close because he won big ones, like PA.
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LynneSin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-08-04 10:05 AM
Response to Original message
17. Steelworkers, especially retired ones, are PISSED at Bush
believe me, I know them - they are my family. Those steel tariffs were paying for the Health Care Tax Credits, which helped pay for all those steelworkers who found themselves without a pension after the Bethlehem Steel merger last year. Plus they found out a repuke in California wanted to add an amendment to the national HCTC that would allow insurance companies the right to NOT cover anyone who has a pre-existing condition. Knowing that HCTC is geared towards 55-64 year olds, you tell me how many of them don't have a pre-existing condition.

Many of these union folks are happy with how Rendell and the democrats have come through for them in regards to their health benefits and I think this will be a big factor in November.

Plus - dems utilize philly and we can win!
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JohnKleeb Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-08-04 10:18 AM
Response to Original message
19. Roosevelt lost it in '32
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