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Hillary can only win the big states

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MindMatter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 08:24 PM
Original message
Hillary can only win the big states
Why is she talking about that like it is something good. It isn't.

Name one big state Clinton has won that Obama will not carry in November?

I'm not certain Obama can carry Texas, but it is absolutely certain that Clinton would NOT carry Texas. With her DLC roots, she wouldn't even contest Texas.

So that leaves us with states like NY, NJ, CA, and OH. Well, Obama would win NY, CA, and NJ easily, and would have about the same chances in OH as Clinton.

So what does she bring to the table? If she can't win the mid-size states, she cannot win the election, period. The Obama people need to turn the tables on that stupid Rovian argument of hers.
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Fredda Weinberg Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 08:26 PM
Response to Original message
1. Don't take NY for granted. Remember McGovern ... we can get that bad
again
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sniffa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 08:37 PM
Response to Reply #1
10. Especially if HRC is the nominee
:scared:
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Fredda Weinberg Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 08:41 PM
Response to Reply #10
14. HRC won re-election here handily. Even our GOP accepts her leadership n/t
Edited on Wed Mar-05-08 08:41 PM by Fredda Weinberg
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sniffa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 08:47 PM
Response to Reply #14
15. That's big news
I'd never believe that a Democrat could win in NY, especially against such formidable opponents. :thumbsup:

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Fredda Weinberg Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 08:54 PM
Response to Reply #15
17. For what was known as the Javits seat ... then held by D'Amato?
HRC was part of the Democratic Party resurgence here. Your willful ignorance is not endearing.
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sniffa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 08:56 PM
Response to Reply #17
18. ...
:rofl:

I love it when you use the term, "willful ignorance."

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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 08:26 PM
Response to Original message
2. If you bother to look at polls now, Obama is up 21 in NY and she is only up 11
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NoodleBoy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 08:27 PM
Response to Original message
3. Oh, you mean like Rhode Island and New Hampshire?
Your logic is very faulty. Is she not going to win states that have been in the Democratic column for years just because they're little?
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superkia Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 08:30 PM
Response to Original message
4. I dont understand the big state argument? So she beat another...
Democrat in the big states, does that mean that in a GE all of her voters from the big states will abandon the democratic party and become republicans? I cant imagine that happening, this country is fed up and needs a new thinker in D.C.
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Omega3 Donating Member (412 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 08:30 PM
Response to Original message
5. this is total BS, you mean Hillary would lose Minn, Maine, VT, Conn? Do you really think he'll win
Texas? You've gotta be joking.

he'll win TX like he's going to win Kansas, North Dakota, Nebraska, Idaho, Alaska, South Carolina, Alabama, and Georgia.

thanks for the laugh
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Tom Rinaldo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 08:32 PM
Response to Original message
6. McCain is running ahead of Obama in one NJ poll
Clinton beats McCain there. There is no way you can say that Obama is as strong as Clinton in Ohio, the primary and pollling shows that. Clinton runs ahead of McCain, Obama behind. Clinton is in a tight race with McCain in Florida, Obama is well behind.

Clinton won the popular vote in Nevada and New Mexico (and Arizona). She is strong with hispanics in the South West, Obama is not. Clinton can win Arkansas, Obama not. Clinton has won other mid size states also in addition to the ones I named, like NH,TN,OK and RI. She likely will win PA and is stronger there against McCain than Obama. Hillary Clinton may be able to return WW to the Democratic side also, Bill Clinton won it and Hillary is stronger there than Obama.
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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 08:32 PM
Response to Original message
7. Obama is 12 points behind McCain in NJ. I'm not suggesting that will hold up, but
it's worth noting.

And Hillary is way behind McCain in Oregon.

Even California wasn't a blow-out in 2004.

There are good states, but few truly safe states.

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Lucinda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 08:33 PM
Response to Original message
8. Well for starters in TX Clinton got DOUBLE the votes McCain did.
Edited on Wed Mar-05-08 08:35 PM by wlucinda
And more than McCain and Huckabee combined.

2.8 million voters Dem overall
1.3 Million Rep over all
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/...

If you look at the numbers for many of the other states, both dems out performed the Rep winner.
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anigbrowl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 08:40 PM
Response to Reply #8
13. Self-delete -typo
Edited on Wed Mar-05-08 08:41 PM by anigbrowl



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katty Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 08:36 PM
Response to Original message
9. ah, BIG states are very important-for both parties
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MindMatter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 09:05 PM
Response to Reply #9
20. Name one big state Clinton would win that Obama would lose.
There aren't any. He would win the same big states she would win.

The difference is in the next tier where he has run the table.
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DinahMoeHum Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 08:38 PM
Response to Original message
11. Methinks the Obama people will campaign as if there are NO "SAFE" STATES
None. I severely doubt they will take ANYTHING for granted.

That's part of the mindset involved in Howard Dean's "50-State Strategy", and as I've said before, Obama's campaign seems to be operating along those lines - Clinton's campaign is still stuck on the old "50% + 1" strategy.

:kick: :kick:
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Beregond2 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 08:39 PM
Response to Original message
12. "Big States"
Thank you for posting this. It is a point I have been trying to make, but no one seems to get it. People can't seem to differentiate between the primaries and the GE. Hillary's "advantage" in certain big states would mean nothing in the GE. They are going to go for the Democrat, no matter which one it is.
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MindMatter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 09:11 PM
Response to Reply #12
21. That is the point, plain and simple.
Another way to put it, name one state that she has won that is not an easy victory for the Dems in November.

I'll give you Ohio. If we have learned one thing from 2000 and 2004 it is that the DLC "blue state" strategy leaves too much open to shenanigans and bad luck. Try the blue state strategy with a candidate that has nearly 50% negative and it is a disaster.
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electron_blue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-06-08 02:47 PM
Response to Reply #12
26. Do you consider Ohio as a guaranteed win for the dems this fall?
Is that what you're saying?
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Seabiscuit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 08:53 PM
Response to Original message
16. You got all the answers, I see. Answer me this: How come Obama can only win the little states?
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MindMatter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 09:13 PM
Response to Reply #16
22. The big blue states have strong party machinery in place
and that machinery worked for Clinton. Where there was no blue state machine she hasn't won a lick. Obama, OTOH, built his own machinery.

Look at Texas. She didn't get serious feet on the ground there until the past month and Obama is cleaning her clock. She should have picked up 40 delegates in TX and now it looks like Obama actually comes out ahead there.
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Seabiscuit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-06-08 03:52 AM
Response to Reply #22
23. Obama "cleaned her clock" in Texas????
Edited on Thu Mar-06-08 04:27 AM by Seabiscuit
He lost the primary popular vote by 100K votes. What planet have you been living on? Spin City, Uranus?
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MindMatter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-06-08 02:38 PM
Response to Reply #23
24. He studied the rulebook
and put a strategy in place to win it fair and square by the rules.

Your comment reflects just how outclassed the Clinton campaign is. You don't even know you lost Texas yet. And Obama's campaign laid out this precise scenario (and all the other primaries except Maine) a month ago. Obama's brain (or his team's collective brain) is operating a full month ahead of Clinton's.

Come back in two weeks after you figure out what happened to you in Texas and we can talk about the next steps.
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lastknowngood Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 09:03 PM
Response to Original message
19. Look get a grip all of you. I have a challenge for all of you
Get at the transcript of KO Tweety Leslie and the others on MSRNC, CNN and Faux Noise on a story about one of our candidates and do a cut and replace Obama for Hillery and Hillery for Obama and if you can't see that they are deciding who our candidate will be your a fool. I'm pretty much done with this whole mess a pox on both your houses you use half truths quotes out of context and bald face lies just like the repugs against whoever you don't like. Hillery is an uninspired speaker but Obama is not much better I find his staccato delivery reminiscent of the Shrub when he first ran.
We will not win
Georgia
Alabama
Mississippi
Alaska
Montana
Idaho
Iowa
Kansas
Nebraska
Utah
Texas
Louisiana
North or South Dakota
Wyoming
Tennessee
Kentucky
North or South Carolina
wining those states means nothing. We need to be strong in the blue states and pick off a few purple states. All you jackasses talking about independents and crossover Repugs are full of crap, independents are just repugs who don't think the GOP is far enough to the right or repugs who want to smoke pot. Come November they will be right there for McLame. Do yourself a favor and look at the 2000 census report and get a clue. McLame has the advantage purely by his gender and color, to defeat him will require not a unified party but a strong party with the guts to challenge the Lame Stream Media who have already decided who our losing candidate is. The 24 by 7 Hillery hate on Faux Noise the Conservative News Network and MSRNC is astounding. I'm no Hillery lover but the one sided attacks on her and giving Obama a complete pass is ridiculous. You Obama supporters will see what I mean if he gets the nomination. If you take the statements of KO and change the names you will see what I mean. If you don't do that your an fool.
So flame away I won't be back to see. I'm just dropping this and moving on.


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paulk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-06-08 02:43 PM
Response to Original message
25. you're missing the whole point
the argument is that the big states are a much more accurate reflection of the general election than the smaller states, and especially those states decided by caucus, where turnout is so low that they're not a reflection of anything other than activists.

I't's not the big blue states I'm worried about - it's the big swing states like Florida and Ohio - states we need to win in the GE - where Obama has not done well.
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