Nothing Has Changed, Hillary Knows It

[pbca]

The only thing that changes yesterday was nothing at all. For Obama supporters and anyone who wants to see the Republicans out of the White House that's bad news. We were hoping that it would all be over by now - it's not, but the overall situation hasn't changed.

Obama is still ahead in delegates and most of the remaining primaries aren't even competitive for all of them. She might split Pennsylvania, she'll lose the rest and Obama will go into the convention with a huge majority of the popular vote and delegates.

Hillary knows nothing changed - that's what her "Dream Team" comments were about this morning. She knows she won't win, so she's starting to like the "Dream Team" idea more than she used to.

[anamandujano]

1. Don't worry about a Dream Team. She only answered a question diplomatically.

Everything has changed, and you know it. :)

[JackORoses]

7. Could you tell me who leads in delegates?

Oh, no change there?

That's great news! ;)

[LeftCoast]

2. More of that Obama 'hope' eh?

:hi:

[aquarius dawning]

3. Right. sure. nothing has changed.

:think:

[MercutioATC]

5. O.K., what's changed?

She's in almost the exact same place she was last week, but with a lot fewer outstanding delegates to make up the difference.

If you're saying that things have changed for the worse for her, I'd agree.

[aquarius dawning]

11. Millions of Registered Democrats said in unison to Barack Obama " no, you can't"

He failed to lock up the nomination. His momentum was stopped and he was left in a position that is only slightly better than Hillary's and there's still enough time prior to the convention for Hillary to exploit her new momentum and to lay the groundwork for a favorable outcome.

[MercutioATC]

14. And millions more said the same to Clinton. That doesn't change the facts.

She's losing.

...and her performance yesterday only worsened her situation. She has to make up a higher percentage of delegates from a rapidly decreasing pool.

[Beausoir]

4. Well, she phoned me this morning to chat, she said "Everything's CHANGED!" So there.

[jakem]

6. well she called me at 3am

i told her to piss off.

she definitely isnt who i want on the phone at 3am.

[Beausoir]

8. Ha! Ouch. Good one.

[CyberPieHole]

9. LOL...I love the irony of Obama's "HOPE" and "UNITY" message...

the CULT of Obama is as naive as the Chicago Charlatan they worship.

NOTHING CHANGED, EXCEPT FOR THE MOMENTUM.

[Texas Hill Country]

10. 3 Scenarios - Hillary has 2 ways to win, Obama has 1

There are 3 scenarios... Hillary has 2 was to win.. Obama has 1.

Option 1 - FL and MI get a Re-do

1. PA, KY, WV, and Indiana will go to Clinton

2. Obama will win mountain west states

3. Obama will still be ahead in delegates, but not by enough to not have the convention be totally F'd, which the party cannot afford.

4. In FL, even the republican governor is calling for a re-vote now, and since the states pay for the primaries, there is little reason not to.

5. In MI, you have Charlie Dingle, the longest serving Democrat in office and Hoffa running the Unions.... two incredibly powerful people that want their delegates seated... MI might have a re-do too; if FL gets one then definitely.... and at this point, FL is almost certain to.

Hillary wins.


Option 2 - FL and MI dont get a re-do

1. Hillary wins PA, KY, WV, and Indiana

2. Obama will win mountain west states

3. Obama will still be ahead in delegates, but only like 30

4. Clinton will (and has already started) making the argument that she has won by HUGE margins in all the states that matter in a general election and that while Obama had a nice little streak there in the middle, the states he won dont make a hill of beans worth of a difference in the General Election.

The argument is this:

- Democrats DO NOT win general elections by being popular in the places Obama won... North Dakota, Idaho, Kansas, Nebraska... etc.

- CA, WA, OR, MI, IL, WI, MN and the North East will go for whoever the Democrat is... the rest of the country will go for the McCain... EXCEPT for Florida and Ohio.... and she STOMPED HIM HARD in both those states. Those are without any doubt the two states that make or break every single presidential election.

- As a corrollary of the point above, for the last 100 years, no nominee that did not win the Ohio primary became president... there are reasons why. Because you HAVE TO win Ohio. You CANNOT loose Ohio and still be President. Period.

- There is also the claim that as people got to know Obama better, the less sure they were of him and that is why when he had to start answering hard questions that people started voting for Hillary.

- An extention of the point above is that if he fumbles on Hillary's relatively wimpy attacks, how in the world is he gonna deal with the "swift boating" he is gonna get from the Republicans.

- Recent polling also shows that 25% of Hillary supporters will vote for McCain if Obama gets the nomination. This also proves that Obama's "cross over appeal" is becoming less and less true.

- Superdelegates are elected and party officials. They are not models of courage. If the electoral votes are close, Hillary has the momentum, and because she won the big battleground states that MUST be won to win a GE, they will go to Hillary.

Hillary wins.


Option 3 - Obama wins PA.

Obama wins. (But will loose to John McCain.)

[aquarius dawning]

13. yep. that's about it right there.

[thereismore]

15. A lot of words, not much math. And the last line - puhleese. nt

[Texas Hill Country]

20. There will not be a brokered convention.

My bet is that scenario 1 or 2 happens. If it is scenario 2, then there will be a deal where Obama will get the Veep nod. If so, then he will be President in 8 years. He will not beat McCain now. Period. Putting him up now will lead to a slaughter.

[The_Counsel]

23. Okay, Wait A Minute ... Some Of Us Have To Go Back To Argument School...

"The argument is this:

- Democrats DO NOT win general elections by being popular in the places Obama won... North Dakota, Idaho, Kansas, Nebraska... etc."

...and they don't get elected by JUST winning "big blue" states either. You can ask Mr. Kerry and Mr. Gore about that one.

You CAN win by being popular in a combination of the two. You know ... the way BILL Clinton was in '92. He took Montana, Nebraska and Florida, I believe.


"- CA, WA, OR, MI, IL, WI, MN and the North East will go for whoever the Democrat is... the rest of the country will go for the McCain... EXCEPT for Florida and Ohio.... and she STOMPED HIM HARD in both those states. Those are without any doubt the two states that make or break every single presidential election."

Dang! Who's your pusher, 'cause you're smokin' some good shit!

If CA, WA, OR, MI, IL, WI, MN and the NE will go for whomever the Dem is, what's the problem with Obama being the nominee? Oh, that's right: he's not Hillary so that's all you need to know, right?

As for Ohio, I wasn't aware that a eight-point difference represented a "stompin'". The ass-whoopins Hillary took in VT, UT, DC, GA ... wherever ... THOSE are stompin's.

Florida. Are you really claiming this when virtually NOBODY campaigned there? Was Obama even on the ballot?


"- As a corrollary of the point above, for the last 100 years, no nominee that did not win the Ohio primary became president... there are reasons why. Because you HAVE TO win Ohio. You CANNOT loose Ohio and still be President. Period."

I think you mean "no one has won a general election w/o winning Ohio."

But even if your assertion is taken at face value, when was the last time Ohio was even NECESSARY to win the Dem nomination? 1988? Dukakis lost. 1980? Carter lost big. Idunno ... did KENNEDY win the Ohio primary? Did they even HAVE one in 1960...?


"- There is also the claim that as people got to know Obama better, the less sure they were of him and that is why when he had to start answering hard questions that people started voting for Hillary."

Um... at the end of the day, Obama was EXPECTED to lose TX and OH. Big. He made them competitive exactly BECAUSE people "got to know him better." It's not his fault Hillary decided to go noo-kyoo-lur. But hey, he'll figure that one out, too...


"- An extention of the point above is that if he fumbles on Hillary's relatively wimpy attacks, how in the world is he gonna deal with the "swift boating" he is gonna get from the Republicans."

Better question: why do we keep giving Republicans credit for being such good attack dogs? Y'think maybe Gore and Kerry simply sucked at defending themselves? And what else are the Republicans going to do that Hillary hasn't already done at potential cost to the party?


"- Recent polling also shows that 25% of Hillary supporters will vote for McCain if Obama gets the nomination. This also proves that Obama's "cross over appeal" is becoming less and less true."

No, that only proves that 25% of Hillary supporters are apparently petty as hell. And how many Republicans have crossed over to vote for Obama because they genuinely like the guy? It's more than you think...


"- Superdelegates are elected and party officials. They are not models of courage. If the electoral votes are close, Hillary has the momentum, and because she won the big battleground states that MUST be won to win a GE, they will go to Hillary."

You're right about elected officials not being "models of courage." It's exactly why people like me just can't get behind Hillary. Had she been a "model of courage" in 2002, and not just been thinking about how she's going to keep the Senate seat she just got (so she can eventually run for President), we wouldn't still be fighting this stupid war in Iraq.

Superdelegates will likely vote however the hell they want to at the end of the day. If they vote for Obama simply because he's ahead on points they're lazy. If they vote for Hillary because Bill and his cronies tell 'em to, they're wimps. They should vote for whomever they think is the best candidate. That's what both Hillary AND Obama should be saying right now. Pundits be damned.

[thereismore]

12. A lot has changed! Her firewall is past her and she has nowhere to land. nt

[EFerrari]

18. She will probablly win WY but lose MS, isn't that right?

I still have a crankiness hangover from last night. But, is that a good guess?

[thereismore]

19. WY is a caucus state. She is not likely to win there. nt

[EFerrari]

21. Why is that? WY is not exactly a socially liberal bastion.

Maybe I don't understand why HRC loses caucus states.

[thereismore]

22. It's about motivation. This time she may do well in a caucus. WY is no blue collar

Mecca either.

[pbca]

16. One of the things a post like this is good for

Is more Hillbots come out and get added to the 'ignore' list - which I'm very proud of.

Whatever happens at least I'll have that list

If Obama is nominated I'll keep them on the ingore list and have better discussions here.

If she by some fluke steams the nomination - I'll be out of here anyway so it won't matter who's on the list.

BTW..I'm listening to an analyst on the CBC (who has no horse in this race) break down the numbers right now and he says in order for Hillary to get the nomination she has to win by 60% in all of the remaining states AND her campaign is sinking in debt and having trouble raising funds.

[AlinPA]

17. Second sentence? Good news for Obama supporters, right?

[Lucinda]

24. Everything Has Changed, Hillary Knows It

And so do I. :hi: