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Here's a first, at least recently... Clinton leading Obama vs. McCain

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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 12:01 PM
Original message
Here's a first, at least recently... Clinton leading Obama vs. McCain
Edited on Wed Mar-05-08 12:26 PM by Kurt_and_Hunter
This polling does NOT include any post-Ohio/Texas polling, so two days from now it seems likely that Clinton will have a lead outside the margin of error among Dems and Dem-leaners, and will reach the point of beating McCain in this tracking poll while Obama trails McCain. The margins are close, and polls are just polls, but the psychology is powerful. This is the sort of thing that will freeze super-delegates for a while.
Prior to the past three days, Clinton had trailed Obama every single day for three weeks (edit: Today's number is Clinton 48%, Obama 43%.). Clinton has regained a solid lead (twelve percentage points) among women nationwide. That margin that expands to twenty points among white women. Yesterdays victories for Clinton mean there is a growing likelihood that the campaign could stretch on in to the summer without a winner. Rasmussen Reports will be polling the Democratic Primary Race in Mississippi, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and other states this week.

It is important to note that while Clinton had a very good day on Tuesday, Rasmussen Markets data still shows Obama with a 71.9% chance of winning the Democratic nomination. Thats down from a recent high of 87%.

Looking to the general election, John McCain has a slight lead over both Democrats. McCain now leads Obama 48% to 43% and Clinton 46% to 45% (see recent daily results). A Rasmussen Reports video suggests that the Clinton victories in Texas and Ohio are good news for John McCain. In Washington State, McCain leads Clinton and is essentially even with Obama. The Governors race in Washington is also a dead-heat.

Nationally, McCain is viewed favorably by 52% and unfavorably by 45%. Obamas numbers have slipped a bit recently and he is now viewed favorably by 50% of likely voters nationwide, unfavorably by 48%. Clinton earns positive reviews from 49% of Likely Voters nationwide and negative assessments from 50% (see recent daily results).

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics...

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/ele...

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/ele...

_______________________
ADDED ON EDIT: Gallup just confirmed the Rasmussen move. Again, this polling does not yet include any bump from Ohio/Texas:




"For the first time in nearly a month, Hillary Clinton outpolls Barack Obama in national Democratic preferences, 48% to 44%. The latest three-day average primarily reflects Democratic attitudes before the outcomes of Tuesday night's primaries were known. National Democratic preferences began to shift in Clinton's favor on Sunday, gained momentum on Monday, and remained favorable to her on Tuesday. Any impact her success in Tuesday night's elections may have on national preferences will be reflected in tomorrow's Gallup Poll Daily election tracking report."

http://www.gallup.com/poll/104788/Gallup-Daily-Clinton-...



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islandmkl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 12:04 PM
Response to Original message
1. Hey Hillary...
that Rovian shit works, doesn't it?

Thanks,

Johnny
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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 12:10 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. It always works... people are people
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557188 Donating Member (494 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 12:12 PM
Response to Reply #1
4. The goal is to win
If Obama can't play to win why the fuck would we want him to be our nominee?

It'd be John Kerry all over again.

I, for one, want a Democrat who will actually fight the right wing machine.
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msallied Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 08:46 PM
Response to Reply #4
19. Then don't vote for Hillary
She and Bill have been aiding and abetting that machine for years.
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Apollo11 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 12:11 PM
Response to Original message
3. Very interesting trend
Less than 3 weeks ago, back in mid-February, polls (also Rasmussen Reports) were showing Obama beating McCain by more than 5 points, and McCain beating Hillary by similar margins.

Over the past few days Hillary's numbers have been steadily improving and now it looks like she would be the strongest candidate against McCain in November!

I first read about this a couple of days ago right here on this Forum (see this locked thread):
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=vi...
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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 12:20 PM
Response to Reply #3
5. Since polls are backward looking, this is an interesting snapshot of
where things were going into super-tuesday jr.

The results make more sense now that we can see the broad effect of national news coverage. (That's why I like national polls... they offer a picture of the isolated effects of the media)
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Phillycat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 12:23 PM
Response to Original message
6. Nice.
Thanks for posting. :thumbsup:
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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 12:27 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. Monday was a big day for her in both polls, it seems
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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 07:42 PM
Response to Reply #6
17. ...
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VotesForWomen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 01:06 PM
Response to Original message
8. doesn't matter, just like the ones showing O ahead don't matter. the race hasn't even begun
between the GE candidates.
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Phillycat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 01:56 PM
Response to Original message
9. Kick.
I can't believe this sinks, while the "Your candidate SUCKS" threads get 50 brazillion recs.
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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 03:02 PM
Response to Reply #9
11. Well, I'll just have to self-kick it than.
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Tom Rinaldo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 03:24 PM
Response to Reply #11
12. I can't let you do all the work :) n/t
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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 09:21 PM
Response to Reply #12
20. many hands make light work
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SeaLyons Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 01:59 PM
Response to Original message
10. Oh Yes
and Hillary just getting warmed up.


Hillary for President

:bounce:
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xmas74 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 03:27 PM
Response to Original message
13. Just giving you the fifth
recommendation.
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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 07:05 PM
Response to Reply #13
16. cool
:hi:
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xmas74 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 08:45 PM
Response to Reply #16
18. I swear that you must be one of about a handful
of people here on GD-P that do not have me on ignore.
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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-06-08 11:33 AM
Response to Reply #18
21. There's always tomorrow...
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xmas74 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-06-08 12:38 PM
Response to Reply #21
22. Nah...
we're supporting the same candidate. At least I think we are.

Anyway, most who have me on ignore seem to be spending too much time staring into a bright light and waiting for a message compelling them to vote for a certain candidate.
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tandot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 03:36 PM
Response to Original message
14. My husband supports Obama and he was not too happy last night
I support Hillary. I think we'll have to stop discussing our candidates for the next couple of month or our house will just look like GD-P :evilgrin:

K & R :hi:



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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-05-08 06:25 PM
Response to Reply #14
15. I imagine there's a lot of that going on.
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InAbLuEsTaTe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-06-08 12:42 PM
Response to Original message
23. No sh*t, after Hillary's been sliming Obama all these weeks. And for that we should reward Hillary?!
Give me an effin' break!
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Kurt_and_Hunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-06-08 12:46 PM
Response to Reply #23
24. That's just weird... who is "we"? The voters rewarded her for it.
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