Goldwater/Rockefeller, 1968, Humphrey/McGovern, Reagan/Ford, Kennedy/Carter, Mondale/Hart

[ficus1]

Can someone point me to a tightly contested primary that did not result in a general election loss? It seems the parties learned their lesson after 1984, but I guess we're doomed to repeat history this year.

[David Dunham]

1. No. Reagan/Bush in 1980 won after a tough primary.

[ficus1]

3. Bush vs. Reagan was tough

But Bush only won 6 primaries and Reagan eventually gave him the vice presidency. It wasn't nearly as bitter as the fight between Kennedy and Carter that year.

We're at the point where both Obama and Clinton will be on the ticket or McCain will win the swing states fairly easily.

[liberalpragmatist]

2. In none of those was that party favored

I'm worried too, but let's not forget that in every single one of those contests you named, the party with the heavily contested primary was heavily favored against.

(1) The Republicans (Goldwater OR Rockefeller) were strongly discounted in '64; it followed the Kennedy assassination and Johnson's approval ratings were stratospheric.

(2) The Democrats were expected to lose in '68; it was close and in the end Humphrey nearly won, but Nixon had been favored throughout the campaign.

(3) The Democrats would not have won in '72; most expected a Nixon landslide as the year began and that's exactly what happened.

(4) The Republicans were strongly counted against in '76; it followed Watergate and the unpopularity of the Ford administration. It was a miracle it actually ended up being so close.

(5) In 1980, although early polling (and even some late polling) had Reagan losing due to his perceived extremism, the Carter administration was extremely unpopular and was not likely to win against any Republican. Reagan was actually probably one of the weaker candidates the Republicans could have nominated as he scared off moderates, yet he still won in an electoral landslide.

(6) No one would have beaten Reagan in '84. He was extremely popular.

The kind of situation we have today of a highly contested primary within the party that is strongly favored to win the election based on polling trends and dissatisfaction with the state of the country is not like the examples you posted above.

Remember too that 1960 was a contested primary. 1968 was a contested primary on the Republican side (although, granted, nowhere near as fractious as the Democratic one). 1976 was a long drawn-out contest on the Democratic side too. In 1992, the nomination wasn't decided until June and Clinton trailed Bush at that point.

[TreasonousBastard]

4. You already have your answer, but might I also..

point out that we lost quite a few that were decided early in the process. Like the last one. And the one before that. And Dukakis.

Oh, and Carter took a fairly long time to get his delgates lined up. It was touch and go for a while, and some thought it might go to the convention.

The positive view of all this is that for as many people who are pissed at the long race, there may be just as many who are fascinated by an interesting one.

[elleng]

5. Thanks for the history lessons,

guys!