Clinton Can't Catch Obama in Pledged Delegates; Could Win Popular Vote, This is How It'll Go Down

[tritsofme]

Its becoming abundantly clear to me that Clinton is likely unable to catch Obama in pledged delegates.

Fortunately neither candidate can win the nomination on pledged delegates alone.

If Clinton manages a great comeback, and ends up leading in the overall popular vote at the end of the day, the scenarios laid out below show how Clinton may have the most compelling moral claim to the nomination.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/02/is_it_over_1.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/03/clintons_moral_claim.html

[bunnies]

1. Pledged delegates represent the popular vote.

Its the whole point of pledged delegates. Just like the electoral college in the GE. See 2000.

[ORDem]

3. Yeah, HRC supporters are just trying to pull the wool over our eyes again.

Remember, caucuses don't count in their formulas. So, they make up their own rules, e.g. "popular vote", to get around those. You are absolutely, right, the pledged delegates represent the will of the primaries. Just because Obama won more caucuses than Hillary (and of course, that's not her fault is it? LOL), makes the popular vote looked skewed, but even then he's ahead in PV.

It's just hilarious watching the Clinton supporters here turn themselves into pretzels trying to work up some scenario where she wins the nomination. It was all over after Wisconsin, but they still cling to their inane theories or subterfuge to go around the rules that both candidates agreed to.

:dem:

[bunnies]

16. Correct. Popular vote = the will of the people EXCEPT those in states that caucus.

After all, weve already been advised that those states dont count. Lets just ignore the fact that Obama wins caucuses because his supporters are MORE committed. Yes. Lets just ignore the most committed Dem voters. Thats logical... right?

The bottom line is that she is not at all likely to come close to him in pledged delegates aka popular vote. But she wants to be the nominee anyway. Bush circa 2000.

[tritsofme]

4. What happens if pledged delegates disagree with the popular vote?

Delegate selection processes are arcane and in many ways arbitrary.

It doesn't have the moral legitimacy behind it the Constitution does for the EC. Not comparable.

[HeraldSquare212]

12. the processes are decided upon by each state party.

They're sometimes arcane, but they are by no means arbitrary.

[tritsofme]

13. With neither candidate able to secure an outright majority of pledged delegates

We will have to look at other variables as well.

One of them might be popular vote totals. Only time will tell.

[democrattotheend]

11. Big difference

Pledged delegates are allocated proportionally, so they should be roughly reflective of the popular vote (screwed up systems like Texas not withstanding).

I am not sure how you could measure the national popular vote, since some of the caucus states do not release vote totals.

[bunnies]

21. Which shores up the argument for Obama

all the caucuses he's won dont even figure in. That would be every caucus except for two.

[Kolesar]

2. Real Clear Politics?

Isn't that the Wall Street Journal?

[tritsofme]

5. I don't know.

But this guy seems to know his stuff.

[grantcart]

6. drip drip drip tomorrow splash

[underpants]

7. What % does she need to win by? She can make up a Million votes deficit tonight?

A week or so ago I read here that it had to be 16% in each Tx and Oh to pull even (I think) does that sound right?

[tritsofme]

9. He does all the math in the articles above.

nt

[hell-bent]

20. Well, if you count in Florida;

where both were on the ballot,he currently leads in PV by about 500,000. Of course, I observed on numerous occasions his TV ad here in Florida. WTF? He broke the rules,eh. The PV would be the only fair way of evaluating what the majority of voters desire for their nominee.....not winning some caucuses that did not allow working voters to express their desires. Caucuses are undemocratic. After Pennsylvania, she will lead in the PV. So sorry.

[ronnykmarshall]

8. That would be interesting.

Let's see how "the will of the people" would get played out.

[blocker]

10. Seriously, she's about 1 million popular votes behind Obama!!!

no way she's gonna surpass him in the popular vote. Reality is, she's toast.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

[tritsofme]

23. And what if she does?

Does that 1 million number factor in FL where both candidates were on the ballot?

[NoBorders]

14. Basically, she cannot win the nomination

Although she may have a decent win tonight wiht lots of positive media spin.

[hell-bent]

22. Keep telling yourself

that and keep drinking from the Mixture! :rofl:

[jefferson_dem]

15. Hillary will have zero "moral claim" to be the Party's nominee

...if she doesn't go to the convention with more pledged delegates. Period.

[tritsofme]

19. Pledged delegates are but one factor when neither candidate controls an outright

majority.

If, and this is an admittedly big if, Clinton holds the popular vote lead going into the convention, she can make a convincing argument that she has the most compelling moral claim to the nomination.

[DrFunkenstein]

17. Dem Establishment: "No We Can't"

There's no way that Clinton can lose the delegate race and have this thing overturned by the Party establishment. There'd be a revolution and I'd be at the vanguard.

[jefferson_dem]

18. I would be right there alongside you! No way.

The fact that so-called "Democrats" are even suggesting this anti-democratic power-grab makes me nauseous.

[tritsofme]

24. If Clinton is ahead in the popular vote count.

It would seem that the pledged delegate total is un-democratic, and not representative of the will of voters nationwide.