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The Field: Hillary's "3 AM ad" BOMBED BIG TIME in Texas

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beachmom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-03-08 09:40 PM
Original message
The Field: Hillary's "3 AM ad" BOMBED BIG TIME in Texas
Edited on Mon Mar-03-08 09:42 PM by beachmom
This new post up by Al Giordano is a prediction post about Texas, and you can read his numbers here:

http://ruralvotes.com/thefield/?p=822

I prefer to wait for the actual results; however, I thought what he had to say about that "Be Scared!" ad and the reaction to it in TX was very interesting:

You heard it here, first: Clintons 3 a.m. ad has backfired in the Lone Star state.

On power-rotation on Texas TV, Mark Penns wet dream of finally getting to go full-powered nasty against Obama is not only the laughing stock of YouTube but also among most young Texans, including young Hispanic Texan voters, and no small number of elder ones, too.

The opposite of what Penn intended has happened: the ad has pushed white male voters toward Obama, and will cause a higher-than expected Independent and Republican cross-over to vote against Clinton in the Democratic primary, tossing various delegates from rural, white, Republican districts into the Obama column.

...

If you think that Clintons 3 a.m. ad has worked for her, consult todays SurveyUSA poll, taken after the 3 a.m. ad hit the airwaves: Among Texan voters that consider the Iraq war the most important issue, 57 percent favor Obama to 42 for Clinton. Among those that see terrorism as the most important issue, 62 percent back Obama to just 30 for Clinton. The survey samples are small on that caveat emptor but they also reflect the word on the street.

Or if you missed it earlier, check out this video of real-time focus group results of three kinds of people Clinton supporters, Obama supporters, and undecided voters - watching that ad.

Remember that the 3 a.m. ad never ran in Ohio. Too bad for Obama. Because what it has wrought in Texas is a likely delegate blowout tomorrow on his behalf.


Now before Hillary supporters scream bias (Al is impartial to Obama), he has predicted a 10 point Hillary win in Ohio. Yes, he likes Obama, but he likes to be right on the numbers.

Finally, let's end with this money quote from Al:

Mark Penns grand gambit - changing the issue playing field from the economy to that of national security - will likely go down in political consulting history as one of the most boneheaded maneuvers of this early century, and maybe the last one as well.

Now, these results wont be fully known until, say, 3 a.m. or so Who, among the Clinton staff, is going to dare place that call to the boss?

Ringgggg.Rrrrringggggg..Rrrrrrriiiinnnnggggggggg.





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Cha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-03-08 09:43 PM
Response to Original message
1. Why didn't mark penn just
drop a bomb on some daisies?
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democrattotheend Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-03-08 09:44 PM
Response to Original message
2. I really hope this is right
I have been panicking all day!
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beachmom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-03-08 09:47 PM
Response to Reply #2
5. With predictions, well, grain of salt. But the polls on the issues I thought
were quite believable. And the national security voters were not persuaded by Hillary's ad. In fact, they ran in the opposite direction.
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anonymous171 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-03-08 09:44 PM
Response to Original message
3. I hope this is right! GOBAMA!
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Abacus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-03-08 09:45 PM
Response to Original message
4. lmao, the dive at the end cracks me up.
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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-03-08 09:55 PM
Response to Reply #4
6. I showed the ad to a friend the other day...
Halfway through she said, "John McCain"... When she heard "This is Hillary Clinton blah blah blah" she just cracked up laughing out loud...literally.
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Tatiana Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-03-08 10:49 PM
Response to Reply #4
17. The Clinton supporters increase their agreement but the Obama and independent voters
completely dive when Clinton appears. That was pretty amusing.
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nomorewhopper Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-03-08 11:16 PM
Response to Reply #4
23. as soon as Hillary's image is shown on screen, the approval ratings plunge
wow
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0007 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-04-08 01:53 AM
Response to Reply #4
26. Chinese sez if Hillary flying up side down.
She has big crack up
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blogslut Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-04-08 02:20 AM
Response to Reply #4
34. whoa
One of those little lines is different from the other two - a lot different.
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Renew Deal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-03-08 10:05 PM
Response to Original message
7. I just checked the poll numbers for Terrorism and Iraq. This guy is right!
Edited on Mon Mar-03-08 10:05 PM by Bleachers7
on 2/25
Terrorism

Clinton 50
Obama 38

Iraq
Clinton 44
Obama 51

on 3/2
Terrorism

Clinton 30
Obama 62

Iraq
Clinton 42
Obama 57

2/25 http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c6190...
3/2 http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d7698...
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milkyway Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-03-08 10:07 PM
Response to Original message
8. Al has absolutely nailed the primaries so far, far better than any polling outfit.
I'm torn on Ohio. It has the feel of New Jersey, where it looked like Obama was closing but stalled, but then I read about all the on-the-ground enthusiasm for Barack vs. Hillary practically begging people to half-fill her events and I think Obama can pull it off.

Barack will win the popular vote in Texas, and has a decent chance to pull off a huge upset in Rhode Island.
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fujiyama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-03-08 10:12 PM
Response to Original message
9. I just saw the 3AM ad
and wow - I have to say, it's likely the dumbest political ad I've seen this entire season...

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Cha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-03-08 10:14 PM
Response to Reply #9
10. Reading on another thread that
Jon Stewart is calling out the ad on his show and hilary is the guest tonight.
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Voice for Peace Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-03-08 10:53 PM
Response to Reply #9
21. you need to see all the wonderful response parodies of the original ad.
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Pluvious Donating Member (209 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-04-08 01:30 PM
Response to Reply #21
41. This parody nails it - made it on CNN
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Barack_America Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-03-08 10:24 PM
Response to Original message
11. That mediacurves site is fascinating!
Check out what they thought about Hillary's "pillow" remark (at the very end)

http://www.mediacurves.com/Politics/J6730/
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WillYourVoteBCounted Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-04-08 02:03 AM
Response to Reply #11
29. O-M-G!!! that was awesome
and Independents definitely do not agree with her.

But that was astounding!
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Johnny__Motown Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-03-08 10:26 PM
Response to Original message
12. Maybe because she let it ring SIX TIMES? My god woman.. answer the damn phone,, it is an emergency
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Rosa Luxemburg Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-03-08 10:38 PM
Response to Reply #12
13. That says it all - slow at reacting to a situation
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Why Syzygy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-03-08 10:44 PM
Response to Original message
14. I've predicted for some time that she would not carry Texas.
I don't know about Ohio.

Hillary does not resonate with Texans. Never has. Whenever I point that out, I'm accused of being anti-Hispanic. :shrug:

The person I want answering the phone is the man who will tell the truth. I don't trust her to do that.
She's too sneaky and conniving.
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meow mix Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-03-08 10:45 PM
Response to Original message
15. good
glad to hear that!
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Catherine Vincent Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-03-08 10:47 PM
Response to Original message
16. Her 3 A.M. ad is fine.
I don't know why some of you are so up in arms about it. Welcome to politics.
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anonymous171 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-03-08 10:49 PM
Response to Reply #16
18. GOP politics.
Remember the Wolf ads?
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Tatiana Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-03-08 10:50 PM
Response to Reply #16
19. I agree. I only wish she had put it into heavy rotation in Ohio. n/t
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boppers Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-04-08 02:06 AM
Response to Reply #16
30. Play by the enemies' rules...
... and you will lose to the enemy.

The Clintons fight against republicans, and win battles, but lose wars.

They can't seem to figure out why, and blame everybody but themselves. :shrug:

Meh. Freaking Goldwater Democrats.
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Tatiana Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-03-08 10:51 PM
Response to Original message
20. Al nails it. This assessment is on the money. n/t
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Kurovski Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-03-08 11:13 PM
Response to Original message
22. The ad is an idiotically low-blow.
Edited on Mon Mar-03-08 11:28 PM by Kurovski
Is she implying that world leaders won't want to talk to Obama because he's not their pal? That she has everyone's favorite colors memorized? Does she even know what the hell it means?

I don't know, maybe Hillary will be busy tracking down Bill during her imagined fateful 3am. How's that for a low-blow?

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goclark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-04-08 07:32 AM
Response to Reply #22
40. The world leaders than she knew eight years ago are changing daily
Many are "yesterday's news" like she is.

I can't remember when I have been so fooled and disappointed in a person ~ Billary is no better than Rush.
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Scurrilous Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-04-08 01:51 AM
Response to Original message
24. Kick
:kick:
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-04-08 01:52 AM
Response to Original message
25. I think the ad actually helped a lot.
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Ichingcarpenter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-04-08 01:57 AM
Response to Reply #25
27. Blow me!!
But only Historically Presidentially

Depending on what is
is on a vote for the War.
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WillYourVoteBCounted Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-04-08 01:57 AM
Response to Original message
28. that explains the "Skeedaddle" of hogg jowls here:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

the letter from Mark Penn saying he wasn't in charge of the Clinton Titanic.

Love your post!!!!!!!!


Kicking and recommending....

:yourock:
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Horse with no Name Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-04-08 02:08 AM
Response to Original message
31. What a raggy website
Dissing wonkette and building up politico? Puleeze.
Why didn't you just direct link to drudge? :eyes:
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beachmom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-04-08 07:23 AM
Response to Reply #31
39. Al Giordano is a lefty; always has been. nt
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LiberalAndProud Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-04-08 02:14 AM
Response to Original message
32. This is not 2004.
It seems like Senator Clinton is trying to wage a do-over campaign by avoiding Kerry's pitfalls. I, for one am sick to death of being frightened to death and hope that we won't have four more years of it. I admire and respect her, but we cannot win on their turf. Her advisors have been wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong.

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Bahala Donating Member (19 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-04-08 02:19 AM
Response to Original message
33. This Add Worries Me For The General Election
Hillary is pushing the experience card, and it is effective against Obama, or at least as effective any other attacks she has. However, in a general election against McCain, what prevents him from playing that same commercial, and pointing out that he has over 20 years of experience as a Senator to Hillary's seven? Obama could, of course, point out that even Ronald Reagan, the GOP's god, had no federal office experience. However, Hillary has committed to saying that Federal experience is the most important determinant. It worries me for the general election.
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WillYourVoteBCounted Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-04-08 02:44 AM
Response to Reply #33
36. Grandpa McCain does not represent change
he's a continuation of most of the Bush policies.

A choice between sweeping change and ending some of the Washington games.

Obama taught constitutional law for 10 years and can help us undo the Bush damage.
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writes3000 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-04-08 02:27 AM
Response to Original message
35. Thrilled, THRILLED to hear it. Couldn't happen to a shittier ad.
And it's a nice note to end the night on.

Thanks for sharing.

Go Barack!
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Major Hogwash Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-04-08 02:48 AM
Response to Original message
37. Fearmongering doesn't work, not for Republicans, not for Democrats!!
We are the party of hope, and change, and decency, not the boogy-wooga party!
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BringBigDogBack Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-04-08 02:56 AM
Response to Original message
38. Kickitty-kick-kick
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