O.K.

[The Ghost]

I am a big Obama supporter, but after the past week, all I can think about it is not that Obama has to win and if he doesnt I will be devastated. Its that I want a winner and this party united and going after McCain. NOW.

So my question is this, without bias towards either candidate, how does Hillary go on if she wins TX, OH and RI by 10 points each tomorrow? Not that I think she will, but if she does, which IS possible, how does she go on even factoring in that big of a win in each state? Wouldnt she net like 10-15 delegates? Isnt that all? And then WY and MS will go Obama, then PA where, what? She gains another say 15-20 delegates. So after all this, Obama is still ahead by like 150 pledged delegates.

Again, without bias, but how does Hillary go on, factoring in the numbers? All I want is this primary OVER now!

Look forward to both camps reasoning! ...

[Fearless]

1. Your reasoning seems sound to me... I don't know what we're going to do.

[LisaL]

2. Brokered convention.

[THUNDER HANDS]

3. she has to hope the superdelegates break to her

it's her only shot.

well, that and Florida and Michigan having a do-over.

[Exilednight]

4. Her only hope is...

to carry on and keep Obama from reaching 2025 on the first ballot of the convention, and then hope to win it on the second ballot.

Where she is miscalculating is that it could turn any way on the second ballot, including losing all her delegates to any member of the Democratic party.

If it comes down to a brokered convention, I honestly believe that she has pissed off enough party elders that they will give it to anyone but her.

[Upton]

5. A fractured party

is looking like a real possibilty and a certain loss in Nov.

[mmonk]

6. She wants a more even brokered convention.

I personally can't stand her for it if it comes to that. She has the right, but when the numbers don't work, she's going to try the superdelegate route. The new voters most likely will be alienated for the general election.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

7. We are past the point of the ideal situation, in electoral terms

The best outcome, electorally, was for Clinton to edge Obama by about 100 pledged delegates, forcing her to put him on the ticket. That's an excellent ticket.

Unfortunately, Obama/Clinton is a terrible ticket.

So we have no plausible unity strategy.

The question of how Hillary wins is intriguing... her plan is to keep close enough that IF it is obvious to the SDs come convention time that Obama is looking too weak vs. McCain, they can bail out.

That's not likely to happen, but I do not mind seeing Obama face front-runner status for a while. If he holds up, as he probably will, then that's cool and there's no need for Hillary as an insurance candidate.

I have no expectation she will win, but I don't mind the added information.

[John Q. Citizen]

8. What's in it for the Super Delegates, many of whom will be up for election in the fall, to

allow a brokered convention?

What's in it for them not to just say, "I declare for Obama" and end it next week?

Since as you say, even if Hill manages to pull of some wins tomorrow, (which has yet to be seen) it's obvious to anyone who looks that she can't win. The math speaks loud and clear.

My bet is whether Hill manages some small wins or not, it's still all over by next week.

[The Ghost]

9. You make an interesting point.

Someone will have to stand up to her and say 'ENOUGH, we cant afford this just for you to win, this is about the PARTY, not YOU'. Its really going to be interesting. Will it be the superdelegates as you mention, or the party leaders, or a mix of the two. I think this is most plausible, knocking some sense into her. We really cant afford to be divided any further, just so she can fulfill her ambition. (I would be saying this if it was Hillary in the lead by 150, etc)

[John Q. Citizen]

15. What will happen is they will ask her nicely first. If she refuses, then both

undeclared super delegates as well as previously declared super delegates for Hill will start going to Obama, in fairly large numbers.

If that doesn't do it, more will go to Obama, people like Richardson, Gore, Pelosi, and perhaps Edwards will endorse Obama, that will mean more undeclared and previous Hill delegates will move to Obama and Hill will quit.

Nobody is going to let Hill drag this out very much longer, and certainly not to the convention. It's bad for everybody except Hill.

[stillcool]

10. she has no desire..

to bow out. She has lawsuits going on in Florida. She still hopes for the Super-delegates to nod her way. The only way she will stop is if pressure is brought to bear by the Democratic Party..and isn't that what this election is really all about? The heart and soul of the Democratic Party?

[Dogmudgeon]

11. Obama can't get 2025, either.

But only Hillary is being held to that criterion.

If he can't shut her down tomorrow, then he has to deal with four weeks of Rezko hearings before Pennsylvania. How will Hillary taking the Mo AND a congressional investigation affect things?

Tomorrow night is do-or-die for Obama. He needs all four states, and big wins. Otherwise, she surges.

--p!

[The Ghost]

12. Right

but again, even if she wins PA, its going to be a delegate split again for the most part. Obama still ahead by significant total of delegates. Then what, for her?

[Dogmudgeon]

13. It will depend on the convention

Clinton/Obama (55%) or Obama/Clinton (45%).

The percentages are my estimates of the odds of these combinations in a 50/50 convention split -- based on Obama having a few more delegates that HRC after he loses several late states, and Clinton having a lot more voters AND the Mo.

If Hillary just squeaks by into the convention, she will lose -- UNLESS Obama is is big and serious Rezko trouble. That's possible, but not likely.

--p!

[bigbrother05]

14. I am hoping that she pulls an Edwards

I know she is saying She is in till the convention, but what else can she say.